海南:需求“一跌再跌”!资金到位情况决定2023年水泥行情

2023-02-03 09:15:28

如果在规划的项目资金能够到位,那2023年的水泥需求应该会有所改善,但具体的行情如何可能还要看全国的大环境。

据中国水泥网行情数据中心消息,近期海南水泥市场处于淡季,需求销量下滑,岛内企业出货在6-7成左右,库存普遍偏高运行,加之近期外来低价水泥进入较多,对海南市场造成一定的冲击。

水泥价格方面,为维护市场份额,2022年12月24日海南岛内主导企业普遍下调水泥价格50元/吨,部分熟料价格同步下调25元/吨。

海南的一位水泥行业资深人士在接受中国水泥网采访时表示,近期海南市场水泥到位价比往年同期低了100元/吨左右。“2022年整体行情较差,水泥需求比去年下滑了大约15%-20%左右。

中国水泥网通过调研了解到,2021年海南水泥市场需求整体比往年下滑了10%,2022年的跌幅甚至更大,可谓是“一跌再跌”。提及水泥需求不佳的原因,该水泥行业资深人士认为,除了受到疫情反复的冲击,房地产行情低迷是关键。

据了解,2018年4月,海南省人民政府召开《中共海南省委办公厅 海南省人民政府办公厅关于进一步稳定房地产市场的通知》新闻发布会,发布严格的房地产限购政策,在已出台限购政策的基础上,商品住宅实施全域限购。

此令一出,海南当地房地产热度开始降温,加之2022年疫情反复以及各行各业不景气的影响,海南的房地产更是举步维艰。

数据显示,2022年1-10月,海南省房地产开发投资912.72亿元,同比下降15.1%,增速比1-9月降低了3.6个百分点。其中,住宅投资624.54亿元,同比下降12.4%,增速比1-9月降低了2.6个百分点,住宅投资占房地产开发投资的比重为68.42%。

该水泥行业资深人士直言:“房地产是海南水泥市场需求的重要来源,但2022年房地产方面几乎没有需求,虽然最近房地产利好政策频出,但具体能起到怎样的作用还需要看落实情况。”

基建和房地产都是水泥需求的重要来源。2023年开年以来,全国各地都有不少重大项目陆续开工,基建投资热情高涨。房地产行情低迷的状况下,海南的基建项目是否能成为2023年水泥需求的有力支撑呢?

对于这个问题,该水泥行业资深人士的回答也是苦涩的:“海南目前还没有重大项目开工。虽然基建计划不少,但是资金不到位,所以这些项目都迟迟没有动工,指望当前的基建情况拉动海南的水泥需求不太现实。”

“2023年海南的行情现在也很难讲。如果在规划的项目资金能够到位,那2023年的水泥需求应该会有所改善,但具体的行情如何可能还要看全国的大环境。”该水泥行业资深人士表达了自己对2023年的海南水泥市场行情的看法。

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Correlation

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

2024-10-30 17:15:19

Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

2024-09-19 10:18:37

In September, on the supply side, the current storage level is relatively high, enterprises in many places continue to carry out self-discipline self-help activities, continue to carry out off-peak shutdown, and it is expected that the pressure on the supply side is relatively small; on the demand side, the high temperature weather gradually exits, coupled with the acceleration of the issuance of special bond funds, downstream construction activities will be strengthened, and it is expected that the terminal demand will usher in a turning point; in summary, the supply-demand relationship may improve in September. In addition, after two months of decline in cement prices in July-August, the market has a strong willingness to raise prices, and it is expected that cement prices will show a strong trend of volatility in September.

2024-09-10 13:14:43

Relevant data show that the industry lost about 1.2 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with sales falling by 11%. Conch Cement: In the first half of the year, the Company achieved an operating income of RMB45.566 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.44%, and a net profit of RMB3.326 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 48.56%. Tapai Group: achieved operating income of RMB1.976 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 31.17%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was RMB226 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 53.43%. It is expected that with the arrival of the traditional peak season of cement sales, the demand side will be better in the second half of the year than in the first half, and the price side is expected to continue to repair.

2024-08-30 10:06:24

Domestic high temperature rain weather has not yet subsided, downstream construction activity is still low, the concrete market is relatively flat, and the market price is stable. From August 15 to August 21, the national concrete price index closed at 114.16 points, down 0.28% annually and 11.40% year-on-year.

2024-08-23 17:35:52

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Northeast region shut down the kiln again for 15 days in August, which played a supporting role in cement prices.

2024-07-26 17:06:09

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the intensity of peak staggering has been increased, and the price of cement in Yunnan-Guizhou region has been raised by 30-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed. Cement prices in some markets in Sichuan and Chongqing have dropped by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-07-26 16:56:03

From the perspective of various factors, the cement industry was flat in the first half of the year, and in the second half of the year, under the stimulation of the steady growth policy, the physical workload of the project landing was expected to increase.

2024-07-25 10:00:09

According to the research and statistics of the People's Bank of China, according to the issuance plans announced by various places, the issuance scale of new local bonds in the third quarter was as high as 1966.9 billion yuan, an increase of 605.3 billion yuan over the same period last year; plus the maturity scale of 1067.6 billion yuan of local bonds, it is expected that in the third quarter

2024-07-10 14:08:28

Tapai Group issued a performance forecast for the first half of 2024. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company during the reporting period was RMB218,586,600 to RMB242,874,000, representing a decrease of 55% to 50% as compared with the same period of last year.

2024-07-09 09:30:18

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the cost of cement production has risen, and the price of cement in Dali and Lijiang areas of Yunnan has risen again by 30 yuan/ton. The market demand in Sichuan and Chongqing is weak, and local cement prices have fallen.

2024-06-28 17:06:31

The announcement said that in the first quarter of 2024, due to the downturn of the real estate market, the shortage of project funds and frequent extreme weather, the demand for cement was less than that of the same period last year, and the sales of cement products (cement + clinker) decreased by 14% compared with last year.

2024-04-30 10:48:04

In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for infrastructure fell short of expectations, housing projects continued to shrink, and the concrete industry continued to weaken. By the end of March, the National Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) closed at 122.38 points, down 1.8% from the beginning of the year. Compared with the same period in 2023, the concrete price index fell by 12.8%.

2024-04-22 10:18:23

From January to March 2024, the cement output was 10,000 tons 33684, a decrease of 11.8% over the same period last year, an increase of 10.2 percentage points over the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement in January-March decreased by 16.3% year-on-year.

2024-04-16 15:55:59

Looking forward to the second quarter, with the gradual stabilization of real estate and the accelerated issuance of special bonds, demand is expected to continue to release, but we should also be alert to the adverse factors such as insufficient funds, the arrival of rainy season and busy farming season, the amount of project start-up may be variable, the overall demand may still be less than the same period, and the space for cement price to rise under high inventory pressure. It is expected that the profit level may be at a low level in recent years.

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The general aggregate market is already fighting in the Red Sea, while the high-end fine aggregate market is still the blue sea market.

2024-04-03 14:16:17

In January-February 2024, the output of cement was 10,000 tons 18280, a decrease of 1.6% over the same period last year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous value. According to the full-caliber calculation, the output of cement in January-February decreased by 7.9% year-on-year.

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In 2023, the Guangdong market was "full of disputes" and "fierce fighting".

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Talking about the situation of Henan cement market in 2024, Wang Aizhen said that due to the drag of real estate, the contradiction between supply and demand is likely to further intensify in the new year, and the price competition among enterprises may be unavoidable. If the industry can not reach a consensus on steady growth, the Henan cement market will remain difficult in the new year, and the loss may be more serious.

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Recently, the cement network APP video number carried out the online live broadcast of "Sharing Hui Building Materials Observation", and Li Kunming, an analyst of China Cement Network Cement Big Data Research Institute, looked forward to the cement industry in 2024.

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