Recently , the photovoltaic capital market has been playing well, such as the disclosure of Zhongbao, the reduction of shareholders, the fluctuation of stock prices, and the repurchase of shares.
Outside the stock market, as the disclosure of Zhongbao enters the final stage, the impact of Zhongbao on the production and sales of enterprises gradually fades, returning to the true face of market supply and demand. This article will make a brief analysis of the recent first-line market and industry situation.
Silicon material: supply falls short of demand, and it is too early
to say surplus. On August 30, the silicon industry announced the price of polysilicon this week, with the price of N-type material breaking through 90,000/ton and the highest price of P-type material touching 80,000/ton. The price difference of N/P materials narrowed from 14 thousand tons last week to 12 thousand and 100 tons. In terms of start-up, the power rationing in the area where the downstream crystal pulling enterprises produce superimposed silicon materials at full load has ended, and the mainstream enterprises have maintained a high start-up rate, but in this context, the supply of silicon materials is still in short supply.
In August, the price of TCL Zhonghuan silicon wafer, a downstream silicon wafer company, rose three times in a row. On the 25th, Longji also raised the price of the company's silicon wafer. The price of P-type M10 150 μm thickness (182/247 mm) monocrystalline silicon wafer was 3.38 yuan/piece, an increase of 15.36%. The rising price of silicon wafers will support the price of silicon materials and will continue to rise in the short term. The
previously predicted surplus of silicon materials in the second half of the year is not so serious as far as the current situation is concerned. According to the estimation of Haitong Securities, it is estimated that the annual supply of silicon materials in 2023 will be around 1.58 million tons. Compared with the previously estimated installed capacity demand of 1.39 million tons, the excess is not as serious as expected, which is mainly affected by the following three reasons:
1) Six enterprises have new production capacity, and most of the production capacity can not operate stably and ship normally before the end of the year;
2) In 2023, it is expected that there will still be the impact of power rationing, which will affect the output of some silicon material plants operating at full capacity;
3) During the year, the price of silicon materials will decline rapidly, and some new production capacity will appropriately slow down the pace of production, so that the production capacity will be opened after the price rises slightly.
Silicon Wafers: Mismatch between supply and demand, periodic shortage
of P-type N10 silicon wafers This week, the price of silicon wafers is stable. Affected by the mismatch of supply and demand
throughout August, the downstream silicon wafer purchasing demand is strong, and the leading manufacturers have raised the price of silicon wafers. According to the data of Silicon Branch, compared with August 3, the price of M10 150 μm (182 mm) monocrystalline silicon wafers increased by 13.9% on August 31. G12 150 μm thick (210 mm) monocrystalline silicon wafers rose by 10.1%, while N-type 130 μm thick (182 mm) monocrystalline silicon wafers rose by 13.1%.
Although the production of silicon wafers increased by 10.3% in August, the supply shortage of P-type N10 silicon wafers has not been significantly alleviated due to the impact of N/P-type capacity switching, which supports the price of silicon wafers. In terms of N-type, with the peak of N-type battery production expansion and the continuous release of N-type silicon wafers, the overall supply and demand are relatively balanced.
From the perspective of enterprise operating rate, the first-line enterprises basically maintained an operating rate of more than 90%. According to the statistics of the Silicon Branch, the domestic silicon wafer output increased to 59.16GW in August, an increase of 10.3% compared with the previous month, of which the monocrystalline silicon wafer output was 58.96GW and the polycrystalline silicon wafer output was 0.2GW. From January to August, the domestic output of silicon wafers totaled 362.41 GW, up 80% year on year. Domestic silicon wafer production is expected to reach 61-62 GW in September, an increase of about 4% annually.
Cell: The price is stable, and the N-type production peak is coming
. This week, the price of the cell has not been adjusted. In fact, from the beginning of August to the end of the month, the price of the cell has not been adjusted. According to the data of InfoLink, on the 2nd day of the month, The average price of monocrystalline PERC cell -182 mm was 0.74 yuan/watt, and the price was only increased by 0.01 yuan/watt on the 31st of the end of the month.
Throughout August, the production schedule of battery manufacturers is at a high level. In the next September-October, with the arrival of the peak of N-type battery production expansion, the price trend of battery links will depend on the purchasing willingness of downstream component enterprises. However, with the rising prices of auxiliary materials, the cost pressure of downstream component manufacturers may be transmitted to the upstream battery sector.
Components: The price continues to be under pressure, and the willingness to produce is reduced
. This week, the price of components is under pressure to maintain stable operation. The market price of M10 single-sided monocrystalline PERC components is 1.2 yuan/watt according to the statistics of Silicon Branch, and the price of the same specification is 1.24 yuan/watt according to InfoLink, which is basically the same. In the case of the whole month, component prices showed a trend of first falling and then rising slightly in August, and maintaining stability in late August.
However, in the actual quotation, some insiders said that due to the continuous price reduction of leading component enterprises, the quotation of second-and third-tier component enterprises has approached 1.1 yuan/ watt, and the industry's brewing price increase momentum at the beginning of the month is insufficient.
Recently, with the rising prices of glass , film and other auxiliary materials, the cost pressure of component enterprises has gradually increased, the start-up situation of component manufacturers is general, and some of them have planned to reduce production.
In the third quarter, as the peak season of domestic photovoltaic installation, the downstream demand has improved and the upstream cost pressure has been superimposed. In the short term, the component enterprises have a trend of increasing 1-2 points. However, in the long run, the quotation in the industry is chaotic, the low price frequently refreshes the bottom line of the industry price, and whether it can actually rise in September is still unknown.
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