Win 8 years, more than 7 billion silicon material orders! Is it possible to abandon China's photovoltaic industry?

According to foreign media reports, CubicPV, an American photovoltaic wafer manufacturer, recently signed an eight-year polysilicon supply contract with OCIM, a Malaysian subsidiary of OCI, a Korean polysilicon company. CubicPV becomes OCIM's first U.S. customer. The contract is worth about $ 1 billion (equivalent to RMB 71.In

December 2022, CubicPV announced plans to build a traditional monocrystalline silicon wafer plant with a capacity of 10GW in the United States, which is expected to be completed in 2024 and put into full operation in 2025. Once operational, the plant will be the largest monocrystalline silicon wafer plant in the United States to date. In

recent years, the United States has tried to suppress and abandon Chinese photovoltaic enterprises. Drive local development " not only supplied polysilicon materials from outside Xinjiang, China, but also assisted the CubicPV plant in the production of photovoltaic wafers." Fill the gap in the domestic photovoltaic supply chain in the United States.

This also means that with the help of a series of operations such as the Inflation Reduction Act of the United States, the formation of photovoltaic manufacturing supply chain in the United States has achieved initial results . As the second largest single photovoltaic market in the world,

the United States has always been a "piece of fat meat" for photovoltaic enterprises in various countries. Due to the weak local photovoltaic manufacturing capacity, the United States has long relied on imported photovoltaic products. According to NREL (Renewable Energy Laboratory of the National Department of Energy of the United States), in 2022, the production of components in the United States will be 5G W and the import will be 28.

On the one hand , the United States has set up barriers to the photovoltaic trade of foreign enterprises, such as double-counter investigation, "201 clause", "301 clause" and so on. Its main target is Chinese photovoltaic enterprises, after all, more than 50% of the photovoltaic modules imported from the United States come from Chinese photovoltaic enterprises.

through this series of operations, The photovoltaic manufacturing industry chain in the United States is gradually taking shape. Taking 2023 as an example, photovoltaic enterprises in the United States have already laid out silicon materials, batteries, components and other links. In March

2023, SEG Solar, an American photovoltaic manufacturer, announced that it had acquired a plant in Houston, Texas, USA, to build a 2G W photovoltaic module production base. It also said that the plant will produce photovoltaic modules with N-type TOPCon battery technology.

In July , First Solar , the world's leading thin film battery module, announced that it would invest $1.1 billion to open its fifth fully vertically integrated plant in the United States, with an annual production capacity of 3.09. It will help it achieve the goal of 14 GW of total capacity in the United States. Moreover, in 2022, First Solar announced that it had invested more than $2.8 billion in the United States, and in July

and October , Suniva, an American solar company, announced plans to restart its solar cell factory in Norcross, Georgia. The first phase of the restart will begin in the spring of 2024, and the annual capacity of the plant will be increased to 1GW, eventually expanding to February

and November each year, and the annual capacity of REC Silion will be 1.

In addition, due to the "uncertain" market policy of the United States, in order to reduce trade losses, a large number of overseas photovoltaic enterprises have decided to go to the United States to build factories directly.

This year, A number of Chinese PV module giants such as Longji, TCL Zhonghuan, JA, Jinko, Trina Solar and Atlas have gathered in the United States (for details, please click: of more than 20GW in the United States ; Hanwha Qcells Georgia (Qcells), a wholly-owned subsidiary of

Korean photovoltaic company Hanhua in the United States, also announced in January and September that it would build factories in the United States to produce silicon materials, silicon ingots and wafers, as well as batteries and components. It is expected to be the first company to establish a fully integrated silicon-based solar supply chain in the United States;

Norsun , a Norwegian solar producer, announced plans to open a 5G W factory in the United States in November; At the end of

November, Meyerberg, Germany's largest manufacturer of photovoltaic cells, was considering moving its factories to the United States because of greater policy support from the United States than from Europe. But as early as July this year, the company had planned to build a 2G W solar cell factory in Arizona, USA, and

Waaree Energies , an Indian solar manufacturer, announced in mid-late December that it planned to build a 3GW module factory in Houston, Texas, USA.

……

This trend of "going to the United States" is undoubtedly contributing to the formation of the photovoltaic industry chain in the United States. The goal of the

US government to promote the development of the local photovoltaic industry chain is being realized step by step. The U.S. Solar Energy Market Insight Report for the fourth quarter of 2023, released by the

American Solar Energy Industry Association and Wood Mackenzie, shows that the new photovoltaic installed capacity in the United States is expected to reach 33 GW this year. It will grow by 55% compared with last year , which will set a record.

However, research by the American Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie shows that the effect of the United States

The report shows that after the boom in 2023, the growth rate of the photovoltaic industry in the United States is not as fast as expected, and will even slow down next year, with only 10% of the new installed capacity expected to increase in 2024. Wood Mackenzie expects the U.S. solar industry to grow at an average annual rate of 14% over the next five years.

Data show that by the end of September 2023, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic in the United States has reached 161 GW, and the American Solar Energy Industry Association predicts that this figure will increase by 377 GW by 2028.

According to the Solar Futures study released by the U.S. Department of Energy, by 2035, the decarbonization scheme will require a cumulative deployment of 760-1000GW of photovoltaic installed capacity to meet 37% -42% of electricity demand. By 2050, the cumulative PV installed capacity deployed will need to reach 1050-1570 GW to meet 44% -45% of the electricity demand.

To achieve the set goals, the photovoltaic industry in the United States is under tremendous pressure.

According to foreign media," SunPower , the leading photovoltaic company in the United States, was considered to have violated the credit agreement because of the delayed submission of its third quarter results. Creditors can demand immediate payment of the $ 65.3 million they are owed. If that happens, the company said, " there is significant doubt about the company's ability to continue as a going concern.".

On December 18, Badri Kothandaraman, CEO of Enphase Energy, an American photovoltaic company , announced a restructuring plan. The company will cut about 10% of its global workforce, which will affect about 350 contractors and employees . At the same time, Enphase Energy will close manufacturing plants in Timisoara, Romania, and Wisconsin, USA. Domestic photovoltaic enterprises in

the United States are still in the "unstable" stage, and can not independently achieve the "decarbonization" goal. However, to complete the above "energy KPI" on schedule, I am afraid that only relying on Chinese photovoltaic enterprises can still fight. This can be seen from the recent attitude of the United States towards Chinese photovoltaic enterprises. In mid-late

December, Ross Capital said that according to its investigation, the U.S. Customs was releasing more detained photovoltaic modules to the market. In November, CBP (U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency) released Chint Solar's polysilicon modules outside Xinjiang, China.

On December 19, the Bureau of Industry and Security of the Ministry of Commerce of the United States removed four Chinese companies from the "unverified list", including a silicon company, Xinjiang Oriental Hope New Energy Co., Ltd.