[Rebar Price Index April Report]: Both Supply and Demand Decline, Market Price Declines Significantly

2023-05-06 18:02:25

In April, the recovery of downstream demand fell short of expectations, the steel market entered a negative feedback stage, the supply and demand of rebar declined, and the spot and futures prices followed the downward resonance of raw materials. By the end of April, the national rebar price index closed at 151.17 points, down 9.78% from the previous month.

By the end of April, the national rebar price index closed at 151.17 points, down 9.78% annually, and 23.42% compared with the same period last year.

Figure 1: Price Index Trend of Domestic Rebar and Concrete (Point)

Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)

I. Supply and demand

of rebar (1) The output of rebar dropped to a low level, and the decline in East China was relatively obvious

. In April, with the decline in steel profits, the number of loss-making enterprises increased, and the overall production load of the industry peaked and fell. Among them, the loss of short process enterprises is relatively serious, and the decrease of start-up rate is higher than that of long process enterprises. By the end of April, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel plants was 82.56%, with a month-on-month drop of 1.31 percentage points; the domestic electric furnace operating rate was 74.53%, with a month-on-month drop of 2.33 percentage points; the national rebar rolling line operating rate was 67.88%, with a month-on-month drop of 1.85 percentage points.

Figure 2: Operating rate of blast furnace, electric furnace and rebar rolling line (%)

Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)

All can be viewed after purchase
Correlation

In June, the stock of rebar continued to decline, the market began to trade policy expectations, and the spot price of rebar bottomed out. By the end of June, the national rebar price index closed at 149.46 points, up 5.03% annually, and fell 12.72% compared with the same period last year.

2023-07-04 15:47:50

In May, the steel market was still in the negative feedback stage, the negative factors in the market hit the trading sentiment, the overall volume declined, and the spot and futures prices further declined. By the end of May, the national rebar price index closed at 142.30 points, down 5.87% from the previous month.

2023-06-06 15:10:16

In April, the recovery of downstream demand fell short of expectations, the steel market entered a negative feedback stage, the supply and demand of rebar declined, and the spot and futures prices followed the downward resonance of raw materials. By the end of April, the national rebar price index closed at 151.17 points, down 9.78% from the previous month.

2023-05-06 18:02:25

In March, the rebar market was in a state of double increase in supply and demand, the inventory level continued to decline, and the price gradually rose in the first ten days of the year. However, due to external factors, the market risk aversion increased in the middle and late ten days, and the price of rebar was pulled back. By the end of March, the average spot price of domestic threaded steel was 4313.86 yuan/ton, up 0.06% annually.

2023-04-04 15:33:45

In February, downstream construction activities gradually resumed, and the supply and demand of the rebar market improved. However, as the recovery of demand is not as high as expected, the market price is fatigue, showing a volatile trend as a whole. By the end of February, the national rebar price index had closed at 167.45 points, down 0.73% annually, and 11.65% compared with the same period last year.

2023-03-02 17:27:22