At present, the demand for cement in Sichuan is in the late stage of the platform period, and the downward pressure on demand is increasing, while the production capacity of cement is increasing. Although the local efforts to stagger peak and stop kilns have been intensified, the internal self-discipline system has produced contradictions, resulting in a decline in market confidence.
Recently, China Cement Network visited Sichuan Xingchuancheng Cement Co., Ltd. (Hereinafter referred to as "Xingchuancheng Cement"). Chen Tiejun, chairman of Sichuan Xingchuancheng Cement, predicted that the demand for cement in Sichuan in 2023 would be the same or slightly lower than last year. Chen Tiejun, chairman of
Sichuan Xingchuancheng Cement, said that the decline in
real estate is a "hard injury", and that infrastructure is difficult to support the demand
for cement in Sichuan. Chen Tiejun still has some confidence in the future demand in Sichuan. Although the decline in the real estate market has dragged down the demand for cement, infrastructure investment such as transportation has given local cement enterprises a "reassuring pill". "There are still opportunities in Sichuan and Chongqing." Chen Tiejun said. According to the data of
China Cement Network, in 2022, the cement market in Sichuan will continue to rise and fall, and the investment in infrastructure will still provide a steady growth, but the sharp decline in the new construction area of real estate will greatly drag down the demand for cement, and the demand for cement as a whole will be less than expected.
It is understood that recently, the list of major projects for the construction of Chengdu-Chongqing Shuangcheng Economic Circle in 2023 was released. Among the 248 major projects, the number and total investment of modern infrastructure projects are the largest, with 90 projects and a total investment of 2.38 trillion yuan. Transportation infrastructure is a bright spot. Sichuan plans to start 24 new projects
this year, of which 7 are transportation infrastructure projects. In addition to upgrading the energy level of transportation infrastructure, a number of energy, water conservancy and modern industrial projects are also planned to start this year. In 2023, the investment plan of highway and waterway transportation in Sichuan Province will exceed 200 billion yuan.
Cement big data: growth rate of fixed assets and highway investment (%)
Although there is more room for infrastructure development, from the perspective of real estate in Sichuan, the new construction area of commercial housing of real estate development enterprises in Sichuan in 2022 decreased by 27.7% compared with the previous year, and the decline was larger than that of the previous year. Infrastructure development in 2023 may be difficult to compensate for the impact of the downturn in real estate on the decline in cement production. Chen Tiejun predicts that the demand for cement in Sichuan in 2023 will be flat or slightly lower than last year.
In recent years, under the guidance of the national supply-side structural reform policy, strict control of new production capacity and active peak staggering production have become one of the main means for Sichuan cement industry to actively resolve overcapacity and promote high-quality development of the industry. According to the data of China Cement Network, by the end of 2022, there were 96 new dry clinker production lines in Sichuan, with a total clinker production capacity of about 2000 tons 10298, and there were no new clinker production lines in Sichuan in 2022.
Chen Tiejun said that in the past few years, Sichuan Province has strictly controlled the new red line, not added a new cement production line, and implemented the policy of prohibiting cross-provincial capacity replacement, but the "fundamental problem" of overcapacity has not yet been solved.
In recent years, with the prevalence of technological transformation of cement production lines, the actual output is much larger. In addition, the foreign clinker from Chongqing, Guizhou and Yunnan has aggravated the overcapacity of local cement. "Especially in the Sichuan-Chongqing and Sichuan-Guizhou border markets, the situation is more serious.". A local industry insider said.
In order to resolve the overcapacity, the number of peak staggering production days in Sichuan has increased. It is understood that the cement industry in Sichuan Province began to implement the policy of peak staggering production in 2017, and from 2018 to 2020, all production lines in the province will be stopped for 100 days. By the second half of 2021, Sichuan and Chongqing jointly issued the Notice on Normalized Peak-Staggered Production of Cement in Sichuan-Chongqing Region, which requires that all cement clinker production lines in Sichuan-Chongqing Region should carry out peak-staggered production. The annual peak staggering benchmark days of each cement clinker production line is 110 days, including 40 days in the first quarter, 20 days in the second quarter, 30 days in the third quarter and 20 days in the fourth quarter.
However, even so, according to the current situation, there are still "discounts" in the implementation of peak-staggering production process. "Over the years, there are still some well-known enterprises that have not seriously implemented peak-staggering kiln shutdown," insiders said. & nbsp; & nbsp;
Those who observe the situation are wise, and those who follow the trend are wise. Faced with the current severe situation of overcapacity in the cement industry, Chen Tiejun said: "The most urgent task is to solve the problem of overcapacity and low concentration." Chen Tiejun put forward three suggestions on capacity reduction in the cement industry.
1. National policy measures to reduce production capacity. Relevant policies have been promulgated to strictly eliminate or shut down cement clinker production lines that violate the regulations and do not conform to the policies.
2. Internal integration of large enterprises to improve market concentration. The market concentration of Sichuan cement industry is relatively low, and the competition is fierce. It is understood that the production capacity of the top 3 and 5 cement enterprises in Sichuan is 48.82% and 63.57% respectively.
3. Use market-oriented means to control production capacity. Chen Tiejun said that the most fundamental way to reduce production capacity is to eliminate backward production capacity through market competition. When the market competition reaches a certain level, without government intervention, enterprises with problems such as high cost, lack of resources and environmental protection failure will naturally be eliminated.
In recent years, with the rapid development of Chengdu's economy and population, the core areas of the city have expanded eastward and southward, and new urban areas such as Tianfu New Area and Eastern New Area have been built. This makes the production base in southern Sichuan only 100 kilometers away from the core market of Chengdu, and the location advantage of the core mature market of Chengdu is becoming more and more obvious. According to the data of
China Cement Network, the clinker production capacity of Xingchuancheng in Sichuan accounts for 7%, and its main production bases are located in southern Sichuan and Panxi areas, with 8 new dry process cement clinker production lines and an annual design capacity of 12 million tons. In addition, on the basis of consolidating the main cement industry, Xingchuancheng Cement is also actively exploring the extension of the industrial chain. At present, Xingchuancheng Cement has built aggregate production lines in Renshou Base, Jianbao Factory and other places.
Move up, work up, the enterprise can live up; calm down, sink down, the industry can inherit and innovate. Faced with the new historical node of the current cement industry, Chen Tiejun said that Xingchuancheng Cement will closely follow the goal of "double carbon", grasp the energy saving, carbon reduction and green development of enterprises, and enhance its competitiveness through environmental upgrading and transformation, so as to help enterprises develop with high quality; At the same time, while strengthening and optimizing the main cement industry, Xingchuancheng Cement will continue to innovate and develop, and seek new opportunities for enterprise development by extending the industrial chain.
浙公网安备33010802003254号