4. The payment collection situation of door and window enterprises after the year is still not ideal, a small number of deep processing enterprises have not started (the original start-up plan is postponed), the rest of the enterprises have started with low start-up power, enterprises still have orders and tail orders, but the capital problem leads to the cautious acceptance and delivery of engineering orders. 2. Inventory: The upper limit of wafer inventory of deep processing enterprises is generally 2000-3000 packages. At present, the inventory is relatively low, and the short-term storage capacity and willingness are not strong. (The glass in Hubei area goes to the warehouse quickly, but the supply is still available, and the short-term price is on the high side). The inventory of the glass factory is 600,000 heavy boxes in the same period last year and 180,000 heavy boxes this year. Concentrated purchase is more obvious in the rise of glass prices, and the mentality of buying up and not buying down has always been there, but after three consecutive rounds of increase, the number of pick-up vehicles has decreased significantly (normally about 100 vehicles per day, but after centralized pick-up in the early stage, there are no queuing vehicles), the spot price will be stable in the short term, and there will be pressure to continue to increase. The reason why Shahe goes to the warehouse quickly is the price advantage. The inventory in Hubei is low and the price space is small. 3. Sales: The views of the park on sales and destocking according to its own situation are as follows: The seasonal time for centralized stocking is generally April and May in the first half of the year, and from August to November in the second half of the year. In normal years, all the last orders will be processed before the year. During the Spring Festival, there are very few orders, and there will be longer holidays. At present, in this round of replenishment, the proportion of real demand is low, and the proportion of speculative demand is higher (4:6). 4. Viewpoint: At present, there are profits in glass enterprises and trade links, but the profits and start-up of downstream deep processing enterprises are relatively low. The cost pressure of the current price also makes downstream enterprises purchase more on demand, and the early stock will enter a stage of digestion after May 1. However, the original film manufacturers are cautious in purchasing or intensify the willingness of hoarding traders to dump goods, and the spot price is under greater pressure to rise further in the short term. 4. There is still a period of more than one month from ignition to commissioning of yuanxing Boiler, and the subsequent commissioning output still needs to be observed. 2. Demand: The increase in the total demand for heavy alkali and the structural adjustment coexist. In the medium and long term, the demand can be expected. About 20,000 tons of photovoltaic glass are planned to be put into production this year, and about 10,000 tons are currently put into production, which is slightly higher than expected. From the perspective of long-term planning, the demand for photovoltaic glass is still there. Float glass will shrink in the long run, but there is little room for 160000 tons of daily melting to continue to decrease in the year. Light alkali downstream dispersion, two sodium, lithium carbonate, sodium silicate and so on. However, from the demand point of view, the east is not bright and the west is bright, and the demand in various subdivisions rises and falls one after another, so on the whole, it is not bad, and the low inventory of light alkali in enterprises is also reflected. 3. Import and export: The net export of soda ash in the first quarter was still 170,000 tons. The obvious increase in imports that the market was worried about in March and April was not reflected. It is expected that the net export in the year will be the same as last year. At the same time, due to the long import period and the relatively fixed contract, the import advantage is not obvious when measuring the domestic and foreign cooperation mode and the current profit and loss ratio. In terms of export volume, South America may decrease this year, but Southeast Asian countries will not change much. 4. Inventory: The spot inventory of manufacturers is relatively low (several hundred tons of light and heavy alkali, and some in-transit inventory), and the order volume is still about one month, so there is still no production and marketing pressure before the end of May. In the first half of the year, the total production capacity of soda ash has been reduced, but the inventory in the middle and upper reaches has not increased, which is caused by the overall reduction of inventory cycle of downstream enterprises (the inventory of glass enterprises has been reduced to about a week, and the inventory of some light alkali downstream has been reduced to less than 5 days, or even lower), but the downstream is tight, and the potential for replenishment is great. 5. Viewpoint: Soda ash is still tight, and now the market sentiment and expectations have a greater impact. If the supply link lags behind after the crash, the tight balance time of soda ash will be extended, and the 09 contract may rebound. 4. Port area + logistics park. The import and export goods of Jianghan Plain are transported to Yangluo Port and then to Shanghai Port. At present, the core variety of warehouse management is cotton (15910, 55.00, 0. The total storage capacity is 120,000 square meters, of which the cotton storage capacity is fixed at 60,000 square meters, and the rest can be adjusted flexibly. 2. Inventory: There is no inventory of soda ash in the warehouse at present (up to 5 in the past). According to experience, comprehensive capital cost, freight and other factors, the futures premium of more than 100-200 can be used for futures and cash, and the profit of more than 50 can be used (the profit of large futures and cash traders can also be used for 30), as long as it can be used. There is a price difference. At present, soda ash is mainly transported into the warehouse by steam. In the past, the manufacturers with more storage were Zhongyuan, Jinshan and other factories. The freight difference between Qinghai soda ash and Hebei and Central China is more than 100, so this warehouse is less. 3, point of view: for the current market view: soda ash in each link inventory is very low, the discount is very large, the disk has been falling, this distorted situation must contain opportunities. 4.26 Glass Factory A Survey 1. Supply: At present, three float lines have been ignited, and the daily output is 4. The investment of a complete photovoltaic production line (including deep processing) is about 1 billion, and the construction period will be adjusted according to market conditions. In addition to the float production line under construction, there are few completed production lines waiting for ignition. Due to borrowing, labor costs and other reasons, the completed production line will be put into operation faster. 2. Raw materials : In the raw materials, the purchase of soda ash needs to be paid before delivery, and the rest of the raw materials can have an account period, so the liquidity pressure of the manufacturer is not great. The procurement mode of soda ash is more flexible, with both long association orders and trade orders, and the two proportions will be adjusted according to the situation. The peak period of alkali plant inspection is in May, June and July. 8. The recent decline in the market is mainly due to the impact of Alashan. The production expectation of the project is still optimistic and will not be significantly delayed. Although the stock of soda ash has accumulated, it is also within a reasonable range. At present, the preliminary contract of Minghong is still being issued, and the new purchase will be picked up from 2600, but the quantity is small (less than 5000 tons). The inventory pressure of some soda plants in Northwest China is high, and there is a rush to run. According to the historical price, the average price of soda ash is 1700-1800, the lowest is 1100, and the highest is more than 3000. 3. Sales: At present, the sales mode of glass is relatively flexible, such as traders, deep processing plants, selling plates, etc. Among them, spot trade is first paid and then delivered, and there is no clear requirement for graded sales. At present, there are still few downstream projects, and the demand for real estate will be delayed. Demand for home furnishings may pick up. However, the overall inventory of deep processing is not rising fast, the enthusiasm of replenishment is not strong, the recent production and marketing are accelerating rapidly, and there are speculative demand factors. 4. Inventory: Now the glass inventory is basically empty (including a part of the selling plate), and the price will be adjusted according to the inventory situation and the level of production and marketing, sometimes frequently, sometimes the price will be stabilized. Glass replenishment enthusiasm (historically), after a small amount of replenishment in February and March, wait until late April to mid-early May to replenish. It fell back in the middle of the year and began to pick up from August to November. 5. Viewpoint: After the Alxa project is put into production, the overall downward trend of soda ash is relatively certain. Now, it is enough to ensure a certain amount of inventory and then purchase on demand. After the price of glass rises in the early stage, the short-term probability is stable, and the terminal digests part of the inventory. 4.2 Demand: Downstream home decoration and engineering orders have improved, and the scale/processing efficiency/quantity of deep processing has improved in recent years, but the understanding of deep processing terminal orders is not very good. Improvement on a month-on-month basis 3. Inventory: The glass inventory in the upstream of the industry is now 10-15 days, with a maximum inventory of more than 80 million heavy boxes for more than 30 days. At present, the inventory in the upstream is small, while the inventory in the middle and lower reaches is high. At present, the company has about 2 days of inventory, 120,000 heavy boxes, the highest is 16-17 days of inventory, and the company's storage capacity is 1.6 million heavy boxes . 4. Price: At present, the company sends 2016 yuan/ton to the local, temporarily stabilizing the price. In April, the average profit of the whole industry was more than 100.The company's pricing model is that when it falls, there will be insurance, and when it rises, it will follow the market to raise the price. 5. Sales: The company has fixed sales channels, cooperative traders and processing plants, and will divide the distribution of goods into provinces. Mainly in Hunan and Hubei 6. Viewpoint: At present, there is a little panic that the price is rising too fast. It is expected that the price will not fluctuate greatly before May Day. The price is mainly stable, lacking upward or downward drive. There may be replenishment downstream after the festival. In September, the supply of contract speculation increased and the cost collapsed, although there may be several ignition lines for the resumption of production in South China. It is believed that the focus of this year is on the recovery of demand in the second half of the year, which may be a weak recovery, and the 09 callback to the cost range may still be a buying point. 4. The advantage of the company's warehouse lies in the use of futures and spot merchants, payment on arrival, and helping to grab goods. 3, traders : Hubei traders inventory is very low, normal take goods, for its inventory is more important than price, the current capital is not a problem. 4, terminal: downstream price will receive orders, the main project order, home decoration single phase for the project order has little impact on the market. At present, Hubei deep processing orders are mainly sent to Hubei and surrounding provinces, 50% of which are outside the province. At present, deep processing orders and repayment have indeed improved, but the overall situation is limited. 5. Price: The price difference between Shahe and Hubei is widening, and Shahe goods can now be sold to the whole of Hubei . 6. Viewpoint: The home decoration order in March and the project order in April, but the real estate terminal has not appeared, so we should pay attention to whether the orders in the second half of the year will be overdrawn. 09 think it's a little difficult to go up in the short term, and you can buy points around 1700. 4.2 Inventory: There are two trade warehouses with a capacity of about 8,000 tons. At present, 50% of the warehouses are replenished. There is no replenishment plan in the short term. 3. Consumption: Deep-processed finished products are mainly sent to the whole country, and for trade purposes, they are mainly sent to central China, along the Yangtze River and other places. At present, the stock can still be used normally for one month. Shipment improved after April, and some steel plants also hoarded goods, but there were not many goods hoarded under the limitation of storage capacity. 4. Capital: There will still be the situation of advancing capital to the downstream, the inertia of traditional trade, and the account period is also very long (downstream deep processing plants and distributors) . 5. Viewpoint: The short-term price increase is too fast, and the downstream is afraid of heights. They only supplement the out-of-stock specifications and will not stock up in large quantities in the short term. However, the manufacturer inventory is very low, there is a strong ability to stand the price, it is estimated that in half a month, the spot price of glass will not be significantly reduced, mainly stable. 4. Deep processing is mainly based on home decoration, as well as some engineering orders. 2. Inventory: The inventory of original films and finished products in the warehouse of the enterprise accounts for about half respectively. There is an advance for the downstream, but the account period is not long. 3. Demand: Compared with the same period of last year, orders for deep processing and whole-house customization were flat, with no significant improvement. The impact of the recovery of real estate and second-hand housing sales has not yet been clearly felt. , Viewpoint: Glass will still face the pressure of capacity clearance in the long run, and the long-term price trend is not optimistic.".
浙公网安备33010802003254号