CEMPI + 4.91% MoM & nbsp; & nbsp; Near End of Demand & nbsp; In the
fourth quarter, the market was weak, the epidemic situation was severe, the temperature dropped, the cement market was stable in the off-season, the overall supply-demand relationship continued to show a double-weak trend, and the quarterly average of the National Cement Price Index (CEMPI) rose from 144.43 to 151.53. Annular rise of 4.91%, the overall performance of the cement market weaker than third quarter. The national cement market has entered the traditional off-season, and the market demand has continued to weaken. Among the six regions, there is a small amount of construction in the northwest region, and the shipment of enterprises has declined; the northeast region has staggered the peak and stopped the kiln, and the market has entered the winter rest state; the market in North China is off-season, and the overall demand is weak; the demand in the southwest region is weak, and the market sales are low; the construction in the central and southern regions has slowed down, and the demand has continued to shrink; East China has entered the off-season, and the market performance is poor. Compared
with the same period last year, CEMPI fell 25.53%, the highest quarterly decline in recent years.
Figure 1: National cement price ratio and year-on-year trend
in the fourth quarter Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com)
In October, the weather continued to improve, but the epidemic situation in many parts of the country was grim. The downstream capital problem still exists, and the demand recovery is poor. At the same time, the coal price continues to rise, the production cost pressure of cement enterprises increases, the superposition of peak staggering is upgraded, the supply shrinks, the cement price fluctuates and rises, and the CEMPI rises by 4.73%. In November, the northern region gradually turns cold, and the demand gradually comes to an end; The temperature in the south is relatively suitable, but the demand is difficult to improve under the severe influence of the epidemic situation. On the whole, the downstream demand continued to be weak, while the coal price fell, the production cost pressure of cement enterprises was reduced, the winter peak staggering was carried out in many places, the supply and demand weakened synchronously, the cement price fluctuated and fell, and the CEMPI rose by 0.10%; in December, the construction in the northern region gradually decreased, and the demand basically ended; The temperature in the southern region dropped, combined with the impact of the epidemic, and the demand weakened significantly. On the whole, the downstream demand further weakened, while the coal price fell, the production cost pressure of cement enterprises was reduced, coupled with the continuous development of winter peak staggering in many places, the supply and demand weakened synchronously, and the cement price fluctuated lower.
CEMPI fell by 4.22%, compared with PPI, CEMPI and PPI rose in line, and CEMPI was ahead of the trend of change.
Figure 2: Trend of China Cement Price Index (CEMPI) and PPI (month)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com)
six regions with different ups and downs & nbsp; & nbsp; In
the fourth quarter, the cement price index in East China and Central South China rose by 6.93% and 6.91% respectively, while the cement price index in Southwest China and North China rose by 4.35% and 2.32% respectively, while the cement price index in Northwest China and Northeast China fell by 6.93% and 6.91% respectively. The decline was 1.57% and 2.22% respectively.
Compared with the same period last year, the cement price index of the six regions all fell, with the central and southern regions falling the most, down 33.40% year-on-year. Prices in East China, Northeast China, Southwest China, Northwest China and North China fell by 27.95%, 23.87%, 22.00%, 15.74% and 11.45%, respectively.
Figure 3: Chain Trend of Cement Price Index in Six Regions in the Fourth Quarter (%)
Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com)
Prices in 31 provinces and cities rose more than fell Hunan, Guizhou led the rise
in the fourth quarter, with P.O42.5 bulk cement prices rising in 19 provinces and falling in 12 provinces. The number of rising provinces increased by 17 compared with the third quarter. Among the rising provinces and cities, Hunan had the highest ring-to-ring increase, reaching 19.38%, and the average price of the corresponding quarter rose by 71.35 yuan/ton; Guizhou Province also increased by more than 19 percentage points, with a month-on-month increase of 19.38%, corresponding to an average price increase of 79.83 yuan/ton, while the remaining 17 provinces increased by less than 10 percentage points, with specific month-on-month and year-on-year changes shown in Table 1. Among the 12 provinces and cities that fell, Gansu Province had the highest month-on-month drop of 4.61%, and the average price of the corresponding quarter fell by 21.17 yuan/ton; Qinghai Province had a month-on-month drop of 3.24%, and the average price of the corresponding quarter fell by 16.26 yuan/ton. See Table 1 for details of prices in other provinces and cities that have fallen.
Figure 4: Prices of P.O42.5 bulk cement in 31 provinces and cities in the fourth quarter of 2022 (yuan/ton)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com)
Table 1: Prices of P.O42.5 bulk cement in 31 provinces and cities in the fourth quarter of 2022. 5 Average price of bulk cement, year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter monitoring
data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com)
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