1. Price trend of
steel, cement and sand in 2022 (1) Steel prices fell. According to the price monitoring data of Jiangxi steel market and Fuzhou Trade Square steel market, the sales prices of 44 steel varieties monitored in the province in 2022 rose by 2 and fell by 42 compared with the same period last year. In December, the sales prices of 44 steel products monitored by the whole province rose by 11 compared with 33, and fell by 1 compared with 43.
In 2022, the average sales price of wire rod (high-speed wire 6.5, HPB300 and high-speed wire 8, HPB300) in the whole province was 4783.88 yuan/ton and 4887.30 yuan/ton, respectively, down 10.17% and 9.49% from the same period last year. The average sales price of rebar (φ12 mm HRB400E) was 4538.23 yuan/ton, down 12.07% year on year. In December, the average sales price of wire rod (high-speed wire 6.5, HPB300 and high-speed wire 8, HPB300) in the whole province was 4351.25 yuan/ton and 4481.25 yuan/ton, respectively, up 1.86% and 1.80% annually, down 15.76% and 14.15% year-on-year. The average sales price of rebar (φ12mm HRB400E) was 4097.50 yuan/ton, up 0.82% annually and down 15.76% year-on-year.
From the trend of the whole year, steel prices fell significantly after a brief shock at the beginning of the year, and rebounded slightly after stabilizing at the end of the year. Specifically, from January to April, steel prices continued the rebound trend at the end of 2021. Rising prices of raw materials such as iron ore, frequent favorable policies in real estate and other related fields, and rising market sentiment jointly pushed steel prices to a high point throughout the year; From May to July, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and contraction, the risk of "stagflation" in the global economy increased, commodity prices began to fall, the demand for superimposed off-season weakened, the bearish sentiment in the futures market increased and other factors, the steel market entered a fast downward channel, and from August to December, due to the demand around the National Day "peak season is not strong", the Federal Reserve further increased interest rates. Prices also fluctuated and fell to the low point of the whole year. At the end of the year, under the background of the adjustment of the epidemic policy and the expected slowdown of the overseas interest rate hike process, steel prices rebounded again, but the extent was limited. See the chart below for the specific trend.
(2) The price of cement dropped slightly. In 2022, the average price of 42.5 strength ordinary Portland cement in the province was 541.57 yuan/ton, down 0.58% from the same period last year. In December, the average price of 42.5 strength ordinary Portland cement in the whole province was 524.07 yuan/ton, up 0.74% annually and down 25.23% year-on-year.
From the trend of the whole year, cement prices almost showed a downward trend in the first nine months, and began to rebound slightly at the end of the year. Specifically, from January to May, cement prices fell all the way due to the off-season demand of the Spring Festival, the downturn of the real estate industry and the multi-point spread of the epidemic. In mid-May, the Cement Association of Jiangxi Province issued a notice of peak staggering production, and prices began to pick up. However, after June, many places in Jiangxi Province suffered heavy rainfall, and floods occurred in some areas. Since then, the intensity of peak staggering and kiln shutdown has not been reduced, the operation time of cement kiln has been shortened, which has affected the supply of cement, and the construction rhythm of the site has been disrupted by repeated epidemics, resulting in the continuous backwardness of demand, and the price of cement has fallen all the way to September. Since October, the project has begun to rush, and the demand accumulated in the early stage has been released. At the same time, the epidemic prevention and control policy of Jiangxi Province has been re-optimized, and the cement price has begun to rebound. The specific trend is shown in the figure below.
(3) The prices of river sand, machine-made sand and gravel are relatively stable. In 2022, the average price per ton of river sand (particle size 0-5mm), machine-made sand (particle size 0-5mm) and gravel (local kingpin) in the whole province was 128.20 yuan, 102.82 yuan and 90.93 yuan, respectively, down 0.20%, 3.08% and 0.84% year on year. In December, the average prices of river sand (particle size 0-5mm), machine-made sand (particle size 0-5mm) and gravel (local main sales) were 127.78 yuan, 101.27 yuan and 90.36 yuan per ton, respectively, with a slight decrease of 0.11%, 0.23% and 0.30%, respectively, and a decrease of 2.41% compared with the same period last year. 6.44%、2.53%。
2. Forecast
of the price trend of steel, cement and sand in the first quarter of 2023 The main factors supporting the price rise of steel, cement and sand in the first quarter of 2023 are as follows: First, the current winter storage price is at a relatively high level, but the willingness of traders to store in winter is still acceptable; Second, with the recent liberalization of epidemic prevention and control, in order to further stimulate the economy, there may be supporting favorable policies. The main factors that restrain the price rise of steel, cement and sand in 2022 are as follows: the Spring Festival is earlier this year, and the market transactions will be weak with the strong festival atmosphere, while the weather is still cold in February after the year, and there is uncertainty in the downstream employment after the festival. Therefore, we expect that the steel price in the first quarter of 2023 will show a trend of low before and high after. In the short term, we need to continue to pay attention to the strength of demand support and changes in industrial policies. Cement prices are expected to recover moderately, and sand and gravel prices will continue to show a stable trend. Price Monitoring Table of
Steel, Cement, Sand and Stone
in Jiangxi Province in 2022 Unit of measurement: yuan/ton
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