On August 25, the national glass price index closed at 138.75, down 0.56% annually, and the price index rose 18.82% year-on-year. The national average price of float glass sheets was 2104.17 yuan/ton, down 11.88 yuan/ton from the previous month.
Figure 1: Recent Trend
of National Glass Price Index Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
I. Regional market analysis: some provinces began to fall
, half of the market in each province was stable in the week, and some provinces began to turn from rising to falling. From the perspective of float glass prices in 15 sample provinces and cities, only Zhejiang and Sichuan provinces still rose in the week, with an increase of less than 1%; the falling areas were mainly in the north, with Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong and Anhui provinces falling from 0.9 to 4%. Jiangsu, Guangdong, Hubei and other nine provinces remained unchanged during the week. See Figure 2 for details.
Figure 2: Changes in Float Glass Prices in 15 Provinces and Cities in China on a week-on-week basis (%)
Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
II. Stocks in the main producing areas rebounded
on August 27, with 307 float glass production lines nationwide, unchanged from the previous week. Within a week, no production line was ignited for cold repair or resumption of production, but the first line of 600 tons of Bijie Mingjun Glass successfully took the lead. During the week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises rose to 80.98%.
Figure 3: Number of production lines and operating rate of float glass in China (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
During the week, the inventory of float glass production enterprises in China increased. Annular rise of 4.33%. Shipments slowed down in most regions during the week. Inventories in North China and Central China, the main producing areas, rebounded significantly, with a week-on-week increase of 15.41% and 20.82%, respectively. Shipments in East China and Northeast China were general, with a slight increase in overall inventories, with a week-on-week increase of 1.75% and 2.73%, respectively. The shipment situation of the other three areas is relatively balanced, and the fluctuation range of inventory in the week is relatively small.
Figure 4: National float glass enterprise inventory (10,000 heavy boxes)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
III. Analysis of cost changes: Soda ash market rose
sharply, the price of glass raw materials rose sharply during the week, fuel market trend differentiation. Among them, the average price of natural gas market fell by 3.55%, and the average price of petroleum coke market rose by 1.28%. During the week, due to the tight spot, the soda ash market rose sharply, and the price of heavy alkali rose by 39.00%. According to the cost calculation model of Cement Big Data Research Institute, on August 25, the cost of float glass production line (natural gas) was 1,602.71 yuan/ton, up 10.76% from the previous month. The cost of float glass production line (petroleum coke) was RMB1,450.73/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 14.35%. According to the average price of glass, the average profit of natural gas and petroleum coke production lines is 497.47 yuan/ton and 649.45 yuan/ton, respectively. Due to the sharp rise in soda ash market, the price of natural gas and petroleum coke fluctuated slightly, so the cost of natural gas production line and petroleum coke production line increased significantly in the week.
Figure 5: Float Glass Production Line Cost Trend
Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
IV.
The national glass futures contract FG2309 closed at RMB1,809.00/ton, representing a month-on-month decrease of RMB11.00/ton (0.60%). During the week, the price of glass futures fluctuated in a narrow range.
Figure 6: Trend of
Closing Price of Glass Futures Active Contract Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
V. Market forecast for this week: the decline will expand
. After 6 consecutive weeks of inventory reduction, the inventory change will usher in a turning point. The demand for stock in the middle and lower reaches will cool down. In addition, the terminal demand has not yet improved significantly. The spot price of glass will turn from rising to falling in the week. Supply remains stable, production capacity has remained stable since August, and there is no production line for cold repair and resumption of production and ignition in the week. Under the situation of slowing demand and stable supply, it is expected that the glass market will continue to fall this week, and the decline will expand annually.
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