[浮法玻璃行业周报]:主产区库存回升 行情转涨为跌(8.21-8.27)

2023-08-29 16:36:58

8月25日,全国玻璃价格指数报收138.75,环比下降0.56%,价格指数同比上涨18.82%。

8月25日,全国玻璃价格指数报收138.75,环比下降0.56%,价格指数同比上涨18.82%。全国浮法玻璃原片均价为2104.17元/吨,环比下跌11.88元/吨。

图1:近期全国玻璃价格指数走势

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

一、区域市场分析:部分省份开始下跌

周内各个省份行情有半数稳定,部分省份开始转涨为跌。从15个样本省市的浮法玻璃价格来看,周内仍有上涨的仅剩浙江和四川两省,涨幅也在1%不到;下跌地区以北方为主,辽宁、河北、山东和安徽四省环比下跌,跌幅从0.9~4%不等。江苏、广东、湖北等9个省份周内行情不变。具体情况参见图2。

图2:全国15省市浮法玻璃价格周环比变化(%)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

二、行业供给分析:周内供应不变,主产区库存回升

8月27日,全国浮法玻璃生产线共有307条,与前一周相比无变化。周内无生产线点火冷修或复产,但毕节明钧玻璃一线600吨成功引头子。周内浮法原片玻璃企业开工率升为80.98%。

图3:全国在产浮法玻璃生产线条数及开工率(%)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

周内全国浮法玻璃生产企业库存转降为增,环比回升4.33%。周内多数地区出货情况均有放缓。主产区华北、华中两区域库存回升明显,周内环比增幅分别为15.41%和20.82%,华东和东北出货情况一般,整体库存有小幅增加,周内环比分别增长1.75%和2.73%。其余三区出货情况相对均衡,周内库存波动幅度较小。

图4:全国浮法玻璃企业库存(万重箱)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

三、成本变动分析:纯碱行情大幅上涨

周内玻璃原料价格大涨,燃料行情走势分化。其中天然气市场市场均价环比下跌3.55%,石油焦市场均价环比上涨1.28%。周内由于现货紧张,纯碱行情大涨,重碱价格环比上涨39.00%。根据水泥大数据研究院成本测算模型,8月25日,浮法玻璃生产线(天然气)成本为1,602.71元/吨,环比上涨10.76%。浮法玻璃生产线(石油焦)成本为1,450.73元/吨,环比上涨14.35%。根据玻璃均价推算,天然气和石油焦生产线平均盈利分别为497.47元/吨和649.45元/吨。由于纯碱行情的大幅上涨,天然气和石油焦价格小幅波动,因此周内天然气生产线和石油焦生产线成本有明显的上涨。

图5:浮法玻璃生产线成本走势图

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

四、期货市场观察:行情震荡

8月25日,全国玻璃期货FG2309合约收盘价为1,809.00元/吨,环比收跌11.00元/吨(即0.60%)。周内,玻璃期价行情震荡,窄幅波动。

图6:玻璃期货活跃合约收盘价走势

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

五、本周市场预测:跌幅扩大

经过连续6周降库后库存变化迎来拐点,中下游备货的需求降温,加上终端需求尚未有明显起色,周内玻璃现货价格转涨为跌。供应方面依然稳定,8月以来产能始终保持稳定,周内无冷修和复产点火的生产线。在需求放缓,供应稳定的格局下,预计本周玻璃行情将会继续下跌,跌幅环比扩大。

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Correlation

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2024-11-15 16:45:50

The demand for concrete in North China is weak.

2024-11-08 16:18:52

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: This week, the northwest market is mainly stable.

2024-11-01 16:50:09

Cement prices in central and southern China are generally rising, and concrete prices may rise..

2024-11-01 15:49:36

Raw material prices continued to rise, and concrete prices in the central and southern markets were mixed..

2024-10-18 17:14:14

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2024-09-20 17:10:16

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The commercial mixed market in Northwest China is running steadily.

2024-09-20 16:41:28

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The market demand in East China continues to be depressed, and the concrete price is weak and stable.

2024-09-14 13:54:51

Market demand in central and southern China is general, and concrete prices are weak..

2024-08-30 16:41:14

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of the rebound in cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of central and southern Guangdong is not optimistic, and the Guangxi region is tepid. The market prices of the two lakes are basically stable, and there is a decline in some areas. Leading enterprises in Guangdong try to restore the price of cement, but under the influence of high temperature weather, the actual effect is not good. The rain weather in Guangxi is decreasing, the market demand is limited, the price is stable, and the local market is falling. Cement prices in Hubei are stable, and high temperatures affect demand. The Hunan area continues the high temperature, the demand is weak, the partial price falls. Affected by rainfall, the market demand in Henan is not good, and the price is stable.

2024-08-09 17:12:17

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in Sichuan, Chongqing and parts of Yunnan fell by 20-50 yuan/ton this week, and Guizhou continued to push up by 60 yuan/ton. Whether it can be implemented remains to be seen.

2024-07-19 17:19:24

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, many off-peak production, in order to reduce inventory pressure, cement prices slightly declined signs.

2024-07-19 15:20:00

According to the cement network market data center news, the overall market is stable and weak, some enterprises in Hanzhong area of Shaanxi Province notified an increase in cement prices by 50 yuan/ton, the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-07-05 16:15:11

The market demand is light and the concrete market is stable.

2024-06-28 16:12:52

Slowing down of construction progress and weakening of concrete market

2024-05-24 15:36:43

China Cement Network Market Data Center News, Southwest China last week, some leading enterprises in Chongqing notified the main city to raise cement prices by 30 yuan/ton, the current implementation is not up to expectations. The weekly quotation of some markets in Sichuan was slightly reduced by 10 yuan/ton, and the overall market in Yunnan-Guizhou region was relatively stable.

2024-05-17 17:25:50

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Southwest China is still relatively low this week, and most of the construction sites have not yet started. The price of cement in some markets in Sichuan dropped by 10-30 yuan/ton, and the implementation of the price increase in the surrounding Guizhou market at the beginning of the month was not good. Other markets in Southwest China are relatively stable and prices have not changed much.

2024-03-08 16:21:11

According to the market data of China Cement Network, affected by the temperature, the market in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has not improved this week, the environmental warning in Baoding and its surrounding areas has not been lifted, and the construction site continues to be shut down.

2024-01-05 17:01:27

国内气温普遍回升,南方局部需求略有改善,但混凝土价格易跌难涨,实际成交继续稳中有降。12月25日至12月29日,全国混凝土价格指数报收124.79点,环比下跌0.26%,同比跌幅为11.58%……

2023-12-29 17:22:21

国内受强寒潮天气影响,降温幅度较大,多数区域施工活动减弱,混凝土价格稳中有降。12月18日至12月22日,全国混凝土价格指数报收125.11点,环比下跌0.12%,同比跌幅为11.38%……

2023-12-22 15:53:42

8月25日,全国玻璃价格指数报收138.75,环比下降0.56%,价格指数同比上涨18.82%。

2023-08-29 16:36:58

国内雨水天气影响仍较为普遍,局部出现水灾,下游施工受限,混凝土行情继续走弱。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收130.44点,环比下跌0.62%,同比跌幅为8.31%……

2023-08-04 17:19:52

国内普遍处于高温多雨的淡季状态,下游施工强度偏低,混凝土出货量多有下滑,混凝土价格稳中有降。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收132.11点,环比下跌0.20%,同比跌幅为8.75%……

2023-07-14 17:17:52

7月7日,全国玻璃价格指数报收127.27点,环比下跌1.76%……

2023-07-10 15:05:39

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2023-07-07 17:05:04

南方受到雨热天气影响,市场处于淡季状态,混凝土需求多有下滑,混凝土价格以跌为主。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收132.71点,环比下跌0.92%,同比跌幅为9.52%……

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2023-06-02 16:40:14

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2023-05-26 17:12:09

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2023-05-19 16:49:59

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2023-05-12 15:12:09

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2023-04-28 15:39:38

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2023-04-21 16:56:47

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2023-04-14 22:22:49

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2023-04-10 09:20:45

近期南方多地受雨水天气影响,需求略有下滑,国内价格多以稳定为主,局部在成本支撑下略有上调。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.28点,环比上涨0.06%,同比下跌6.75%……

2023-03-31 17:01:41

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2023-03-27 15:47:47

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2023-03-17 17:18:22

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2023-03-10 16:58:38

本周国内混凝土市场需求仍有回升,但整体增长放缓,加之原材料涨幅落实情况仍有待观察,混凝土企业报价稳定为主。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收139.76点,环比上周持平,同比下跌8.08%……

2023-03-03 17:01:09

近期南方天气好转,施工活跃度较前期有所提升,加之上游水泥价格出现推涨,局部混凝土企业存在跟涨情绪,但北方市场恢复仍较为缓慢,南北市场分化明显。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收139.76点,环比上涨0.01%,同比下跌8.89%……

2023-02-24 16:44:17

国内水泥企业涨价意愿较强,但目前市场需求仍处在恢复阶段,混凝土市场跟进缓慢,观望心态较为明显,实际报价有涨有跌。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收139.74点,环比下跌0.19%,同比下跌9.45%……

2023-02-17 17:21:54

本周北方大部分地区尚未复工,南方市场混凝土需求有所恢复,但出货量仍偏低,市场大体保持稳定为主,局部松动下行。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.01点,环比下跌0.06%,同比下跌9.27%……

2023-02-10 16:45:43

春节后国内大多数城市尚未完全复工,混凝土市场行情仍较为低迷,尽管局部上游水泥熟料价格有所调整,但混凝土企业报价暂时保持稳定为主。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.09点,相较于春节前持平,同比下跌9.39%……

2023-02-03 17:15:14

临近春节,下游多地赶工情况接近结束,混凝土出货量仍有明显下滑,国内混凝土价格延续下行趋势。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.09点,环比下跌0.38%,同比下跌10.53%……

2023-01-13 17:46:39

随着春节临近,下游施工项目停工放假的情况逐渐增多,混凝土市场需求进一步走弱,多地混凝土价格出现下调。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收140.62点,环比下跌0.32%,同比下跌10.55%……

2023-01-06 16:04:59

国内多数地区施工进度放缓,混凝土发货量基本降至5成以下,企业工作重心转向回款,报价多以稳定为主,仅有个别区域仍有小幅调整。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收141.07点,环比下跌0.05%,同比下跌10.81%……

2022-12-30 16:23:51

本周国内部分施工项目进度放缓,混凝土市场需求延续下滑趋势,多数地区混凝土价格保持稳定,局部松动下行。本周全国混凝土价格指数报收141.18点,环比下跌0.49%,同比下跌11.17%……

2022-12-16 17:15:11

"Strengthening industry self-discipline and coordination is to survive, not to get rich." A person in charge of a cement enterprise said frankly that if the enterprise is unsustainable, how can we talk about high-quality development? Industry self-discipline and synergy are not only the way to survive, but also the cornerstone of development.