Glass since late April, although the spot price is strong, the main contract has experienced a rapid correction. Taking the 5mm plate in Shahe area as an example, it rose 140 points from 1812 yuan/ton on April 21 to 1952 yuan/ton on May 4, while the 09 contract fell 168 points from 1906 yuan/ton to 1738 yuan/ton in the same period. The sharp deviation between
futures and spot is mainly caused by pessimistic expectations in the long run.
Glass's current deviation from the current period and the widening of the basis are the early reflection of the market's pessimistic expectations of relative certainty in the future, and the game is more about the time node of weakening. In fact, the current glass does not have the conditions for peak reversal. In the future, as the spot price rises and the time approaches, the far-month 2309 contract will probably repair the basis in the way of futures going up, and the operation should be mainly to do more at low prices.
Real estate is expected to weaken in the long run.
Real estate began to weaken in the second half of 2021, in the case of tight funds, although there are still a lot of construction area, but housing enterprises have chosen to fail, resulting in a synchronous decline in the completion end and the construction end at that time. From the real estate construction cycle, generally from the start to the completion of about 3 years, do not rule out to speed up the turnover, but also about 2 years, according to 2.5 years, the decline in the mid-2021 construction end should be reflected in early 2024.
In addition, we have to consider that many projects that should have been completed in the middle of 2021 to 22 years will be delayed due to backlog, and the centralized release of the completion end this year will lead to higher intensity. However, as it is expected that the completion boom will come to an end in early 2024, the reversal in the future is almost inevitable in theory, so the large basis difference and monthly price difference are also based on this. However, if it is expected to complete the reversal in 2024, the time point given by the disk discount is still too early.
Data collation: Since the rise of Guoxin Futures
Glass, the average daily output has continued to strengthen, from 159,000 tons in early April to about 161,000 tons now. As the price warms up, the recovery of supply is an inevitable phenomenon. Observing the speed and slope of supply recovery, the recovery is still moderate, and the glass production line is still flat from April to now. Far-month decline is a routine operation in the rapidly rising market. Whenever supply and demand are strong and prices are rising, the release of supply side brought by high profits and the suppression of demand by high prices are eternal themes, and this glass market is no exception. However, because the glass production line lasts for a long time after it is put into operation, generally about 10 years, if the glass price is expected to be strong for only one year, then it will lose money for a long time, which is insufficient for the rapid increase of supply.
Therefore, the production capacity of glass will increase but not too fast, and the impact on the market is limited.
Raw materials continue to fall, exacerbating the market's fear of heights, the market is worrying above the cost, and only when it falls to a loss can it be reassuring. Macro weakness intensifies the forward discount of glass, commodities have fallen recently, and bearish sentiment permeates the market, making the far-month sentiment of glass more pessimistic. In fact, the supply side of float glass is very rigid, after a long loss leading to a decline in supply, in the case of demand warming up and continued tension, even if the cost decline gives profits, glass will not be transferred at a lower price.
Data collation: From the perspective of Guoxin Futures
in 2024, as the price of glass raw materials continues to fall, the profit of glass has been very considerable. If the supply and demand weaken in the future, glass will have more room to fall. At that time, all the negative factors such as supply increase and cost decline will be reflected, and the market will continue to fall in the case of a big discount.
Glass's current deviation from the current period and the widening of the basis are the early reflection of the market's pessimistic expectations of relative certainty in the future, and the game is more about the time node of weakening. In fact, the current glass does not have the conditions for peak reversal.
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