Photovoltaic is too hot, glass is crazy! Since the "3060" target was proposed, some major changes have taken place in the photovoltaic glass industry, as follows:
one is the change of regulatory mode, from the initial strict implementation of capacity replacement to the cancellation of capacity replacement, and then to the establishment of a new project hearing system; the change of regulatory mode has brought about the structural release of capacity. Black Hawk Photovoltaic Statistics found that 106 new photovoltaic glass hearings were announced from March to June 2022 alone.
Second, the price fluctuated sharply in two years. Since mid-September 2020, the price of photovoltaic glass has risen sharply, and the products are in short supply. The draft of "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in Cement Glass Industry (Revised Draft)" issued on December 6, 2020 points out that in the future, new calendered photovoltaic glass can not formulate a capacity replacement plan. Three months after the release of the draft, the price of photovoltaic glass returned to normal level. After entering 2022, the price of photovoltaic glass fluctuates synchronously with the whole photovoltaic supply chain.
Third, the crazy expansion of production capacity, along with the hot industry expectations, Xinyi Solar Energy, Flat, Qibin Group, Nanbo, Xinfuxing and other new and old players have accelerated the expansion of photovoltaic glass production capacity.
Fourth, in order to ensure supply, enterprises in the relevant links of the photovoltaic industry chain and photovoltaic glass enterprises have signed long-term cooperation . (Attached is the comparison of core operating data: Xinyi Solar Energy PK Flat, Xinyi Solar (PK Fuyao Glass)
The craziest thing is that in the six days from April 21 to 26, Anhui Province held 28 hearings successively. If all these photovoltaic glass projects are built and put into operation on schedule, the production capacity of photovoltaic glass in Anhui alone will be close to 90000 tons per day.
From 2022 to 2026, the new production capacity in Anhui Province will reach 76,680 tons per day; Guangxi is 427500 tons per day. Hubei will also add 2. Compare the daily production capacity in the first seven months of this year 6.
China's photovoltaic glass enterprises' production capacity layout over the years and future production capacity statistics (click the picture to enlarge) 
product price, Black Hawk Photovoltaic consulted the data of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: from January to October 2022, the average price of 2mm and 3.2mm photovoltaic rolled glass was 20.8 yuan/square meter and 26.9 yuan/square meter respectively, which decreased by 14.0% and 7. In October, the average price of 2mm and 3.2mm PV rolled glass was RMB20.4/m2 and RMB26.2/m2 respectively, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.9% and 9% respectively. After November, the demand for PV glass was boosted by factors such as the decrease in the price of silicon materials and the increase in the newly installed PV capacity, which led to an upward trend in the price of PV glass.
However, for the overall price trend in the future, according to the analysis of China Building Materials News, similar to the supply gap of photovoltaic glass in 2020-2021, which caused the price to soar, and then the situation of high profits in the whole industry may be difficult to happen again. The photovoltaic glass industry under the double rise of supply and demand may be just like the float glass industry in the last 10 years. It is still difficult to escape cyclical fluctuations. The price of photovoltaic glass will probably decline for a long period of time, which is also the industrial chain logic matching the continuous downward cost of photovoltaic power generation. The excess profit of photovoltaic enterprises will be more due to the increase of market share brought by low-cost and high-efficiency expansion.
According to the analysis of China Building Materials News, judging from the profit level under the sustained low price of photovoltaic glass from 2021 to 2022, the actual profit margin gap between the leading enterprises and the backward enterprises is further enlarged at the low level of the industry boom. Including float glass, which is a very competitive and mature market, there is still a very obvious cost echelon for a long time. Black Hawk Photovoltaic has found that by the end of 2021, the production capacity of Xinyi Solar Energy and Flat has reached 12000 tons per day and 12200 tons per day respectively, with a total market share of 52.
Long-term demand expansion is accompanied by short-term and medium-term supply and demand cycle disturbance . According to the views and analysis of all parties, the pattern of "duopoly" will be impacted in the next few years, but the overall concentration of the industry may increase. In terms of production capacity, the market share of photovoltaic glass TOP5 will reach 71% in 2022.
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