China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced the latest transaction price of silicon materials, and the lowest price of monocrystalline dense materials has dropped to 148 yuan/kg! The average price of monocrystalline dense materials has also dropped to 176.2 yuan/kg, compared with the highest point of 306 yuan/kg in 2022, a decline of 42.4%, nearly halving! The lowest re-feeding of monocrystalline silicon has been as low as 145 yuan/ton. On the afternoon of January
4, the Silicon Branch released the latest transaction price of silicon materials. The lowest market price of monocrystalline materials, dense materials and cauliflower materials has reached 145,000 to 150,000 yuan/ton, and the average market price is between 178,000 and 173,000 yuan/ton. This is the latest silicon material price released four months after the announcement of the suspension of polysilicon collection price issued by the Silicon Branch on September 8, 2022.
Among them,
the recharging
of monocrystalline silicon is 150 ~ 182 yuan/kg, and the average price is 178.2 yuan/kg;
the dense monocrystalline silicon is
148 ~ 180 yuan/kg, and the average price is 176.2 yuan/kg; The recharging
of monocrystalline silicon is 145 ~ 177 yuan/kg, and the average price is 173.4 yuan/kg. The price of
silicon materials has nearly halved. Can it hit the bottom by the end of January?
Silicon Branch said that the price of polysilicon has continued to decline for two months since November, and the price of monocrystalline dense materials has dropped from a high of 306000 yuan/ton to 176200 yuan/ton, a decline of 42.4%.
Silicon Material Branch believes that the main reasons for the sharp and rapid decline of silicon materials in the short term are:
1. The high inventory status of silicon wafer enterprises continues, which leads to the obvious weakening of the market purchasing demand of silicon material enterprises;
2. With the continuous release of new production capacity for the expansion of silicon materials, the oversupply in the market prompted enterprises to make concessions.
Looking forward to the later period, the Silicon Material Branch believes that due to the recent market price decline and the rate of decline far exceeding expectations, many downstream silicon wafer enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood, light trading volume, and about 2-3 enterprises have signed actual orders.
However, as the silicon wafer inventory is digested to a low level, the price of silicon wafers may reach the bottom in January and drive the price of photovoltaic industry chain products to stabilize, thus the decline and decline rate of silicon material prices may slow down in January. Over
capacity highlights, will falling prices be the main theme in 2023?
On December 27, Xiexin Technologies announced that Inner Mongolia Xinyuan Silicon Material Technology Co., Ltd. (Baotou Base), an indirect subsidiary of the company, had officially put into production the first 20000 tons of granular silicon modules in the first phase of 100000 tons.
After the first 20,000-ton module of GCL Leshan Granular Silicon Base was put into production, the second 20,000-ton module has also achieved full production. With the production capacity of the 60,000-ton base in Xuzhou, the total production capacity of GCL FBR Granular Silicon has reached 100,000 tons.
In fact, since the second half of 2022, in addition to Leshan Xiexin, Baotou Xinte, Runyang New Energy and other enterprises have concentrated on putting into production or increasing the production capacity of new silicon materials. The latest silicon industry data released by the
Silicon Branch also showed that the domestic polysilicon production in December was about 96700 tons, an increase of 7.4% annually and a net increase of 6667 tons annually. Since
2022, the production of silicon materials has been expanded rapidly. By the end of the year, the domestic production capacity is expected to exceed 1.2 million tons, and the new production capacity will exceed 600,000 tons in the whole year. The annual output of polysilicon was about 811,000 tons, an increase of 65.5% over the same period last year.
In addition, the Silicon Branch expects that the new production capacity will exceed 1.2 million tons in 2023. By then, the cumulative production capacity of domestic silicon materials will double to more than 2.4 million tons.
With the release of new production capacity, the supply of silicon materials will also increase substantially, the problem of shortage of supply and demand of polysilicon will be thoroughly solved, and there will even be concerns about overcapacity, which will also affect the price stabilization of silicon materials and photovoltaic industry chain.
Industry insiders predict that such a sharp decline in silicon materials will continue in 2023. The person predicts that the price of silicon materials in the first quarter of 2023 may be only 120000 yuan/ton, the second quarter will further drop to 85000 yuan/ton, and the fourth quarter will be only 65000 yuan/ton.
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