On December 28, PVInfoLink, a price analysis framework, released the latest price of photovoltaic industry chain. Following the sharp price reduction of silicon wafers, the price of cells began to fall sharply. Among the quotations of photovoltaic products, the price of mainstream cells dropped by more than 19%.
"With the reduction of downstream demand and the spread of market panic, battery prices are still likely to continue to fall." Some media have analyzed the price drop in this way, and some enterprises have opened the " sale" mode !
In addition to batteries, the decline of silicon materials and silicon wafers is also turbulent. Is
this really going to crash? & nbsp; & nbsp; Silicon materials: It has returned to the "1" era
. The price of silicon materials has dropped continuously, and the lowest price has fallen below 200 yuan . It has returned to the "1" era.
On December 28, the price analysis framework PVInfoLink released the latest silicon material price. This week, the silicon material price continued to decline. The highest price of polysilicon dense material was 240 yuan/kg, and the lowest price was 185 yuan/kg, a decrease of 5.9%.
PVInfoLink said that the upstream sector is experiencing market changes with rapidly shrinking demand for materials, and with the completion and delivery of pre-orders, some silicon enterprises have begun to face the situation of lack of new orders. Another important signal is that the silicon sector is beginning to accumulate abnormal inventory.
Due to the slowdown of turnover rate, the abnormal inventory of silicon materials has begun to accumulate significantly. It is expected that the silicon materials enterprises, including the head enterprises, will face inventory pressure at the end of the month, but the degree is slightly different. They will continue to face a severe situation before the Spring Festival holidays.
At the same time, due to the increasing pressure of inventory, some orders of individual silicon enterprises are traded at lower prices, and the overall market transaction price is chaotic.
That is to say, the current decline can not be stopped at present, and may even fall below the level of early 2021.
Industry insiders predict that the price of silicon materials in the first quarter of next year may be only 120000 yuan per ton , and further drop to 85000 yuan per ton in the second quarter. The fourth quarter is only 65000 yuan/ton .
Silicon Wafers: "Disordered Decline" at an Amazing
Speed This week, PVInfoLink quoted that the average price of 182mm/150μm silicon wafers was 4.95 yuan/piece, and the average price of 210mm/150μm silicon wafers fell below 6.7 yuan/piece, with a week-on-week decline of 10% and 6.9% respectively.
At present, the core contradiction is that upstream supply needs to face the continuous decline of downstream demand. Even though the silicon wafer sector has been in the production reduction channel and the supply continues to shrink, the rate of demand contraction is still surprising.
Jibang New Energy data show that the recent rising inventory in the silicon wafer market and the shipping strategy of enterprises for downstream market share have led to panic in the silicon wafer market, and the price of silicon wafers has changed day by day. However, based on the psychology of buying up and not buying down and the slowdown of demand, the downstream purchasing willingness is still weak, the price is still not stable, and there is still a possibility of decline.
Batteries: Shrinking demand, continued to fall
pool leader Tongwei shares announced this week to lower battery prices, its new round of quotations show that 182, 210 battery prices were 1.07 yuan/W and 1.06 yuan/W, respectively. Compared with the previous round of quotation, the price has dropped by about 20%.
However, according to the quotation of PVInfoLink on Wednesday, the prices of M6, M10 and G12 fall at 0.93-0.95 yuan/W, 0.94-0.98 yuan/W and 0.95-0.98 yuan/W, which are lower than quotation of enterprises. This can also reflect the overall psychological expectations of the industry-falling is still the mainstream trend.
PVInfoLink said that as component manufacturers have completed their purchasing targets for this year, the demand for corresponding batteries has shrunk rapidly, demand has decreased and market panic has spread. Battery prices are still likely to continue to fall.
Components: The demand is hard to support. The slack season has arrived
. The weak demand also makes the production planning of the component manufacturers vague and uncertain. Some manufacturers are expected to stop production on New Year's Day in January and the Spring Festival. The activation rate of the first-tier vertical integration manufacturers may drop to about 70%, and the second-tier and third-tier manufacturers may also be revised down to 50%.
Jibang New Energy said that on the one hand, the period from overseas Christmas holidays to domestic the Spring Festival has always been the off-season of the photovoltaic industry, on the other hand, the recent sharp fluctuations in industrial chain prices have exacerbated the wait-and-see mentality of end customers to " buy up and not buy down ", and there will be no big market at present.
However, some media said that the average price of photovoltaic modules has not declined significantly in recent days, but the performance of scattered module transaction prices in the market is quite different. The price of 540W components in some second-line component factories has been as low as 1.5 yuan/ watt. In addition, some components returned for export are also being "sold" at ultra-low prices.
To sum up
, 2022 has come to an end. In the happy atmosphere of the New Year, the panic of the price "collapse" of the photovoltaic industry chain is still lingering, but this round may also be the beginning of a new opportunity.
After the price of silicon materials and the whole industry chain has been in a "crazy" upward cycle for two consecutive years, the whole industry is brewing changes. With the upstream price callback, the price of the whole photovoltaic industry chain is expected to adjust with the trend, and the long-term upstream squeeze of batteries and components is also expected to be profitable repair .
Let products return to products, let the market return to the market , and redistribute profits rationally in the industrial chain, which is the way for the long-term scientific and healthy development of an industry.
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