Where will the second and third line repair fatigue go in May?

1. The differentiation of real estate data structure still brings a cautious attitude

towards the outlook for the later period. The GDP growth rate of 4.5% in the first quarter of this year and the macro data in March are at the upper limit of market expectations. The economic data is better than expected, and the reality is not bad, but the market divergence on the economic trend in the later period is difficult to eliminate.

The investment side, especially the real estate data, is weak. The most eye-catching part of the real estate data is the completion, which obviously benefits mainly from the policy of guaranteeing the delivery of buildings. Leading indicators such as front-end new construction data recorded a negative increase of-29% year-on-year, indicating that the confidence of Housing enterprises in the late real estate market is weak, which also buries adverse hidden dangers for future construction and completion.

On the whole, the characteristics of differentiation of real estate data structure are significant, and the leading indicators are weak, which makes the market still cautious about the trend of real estate in the later period.

2. Since the weakening

of high-frequency sales data in April, high-frequency real estate sales have not further continued the repair process after the Spring Festival. In addition to the first-line low base effect, the growth rate has rebounded year-on-year, and the second-line and third-line repair is fatigue.

3. The source of funds for real estate enterprises is still tight

. At present, finance is biased towards risk prevention, and the source of funds for real estate enterprises is still tight. In terms of the growth rate of the source of funds for housing enterprises, it is still negative growth, which is-9% in the first quarter. Among them, confidence in the property market has improved, and sales have improved the source of funds for housing enterprises most significantly. It is expected that the drag on real estate investment in the later period will still appear when the funds of real estate enterprises are inclined to the back-end guaranteed delivery.