According to InfoLink China Customs export data in March, China exported up to 21.2G W photovoltaic modules in March, an increase of 43.1% compared with 14.8G W in February and 56.5% compared with March 2022. After the strong export in the first two months of 2023, the export figure of PV modules in March reached a new peak. The monthly export of 21.2G W modules was much higher than export volume in the peak season of 2022, indicating the high heat of the overseas market in 2023. Since 2023, China has exported 50.9 GW of PV modules, and global PV demand may grow faster than expected in 2023. Europe imported 12.5G W PV modules from China
in March, up 49% from 8.4G W in February and 76% from March last year. In 2023, it imported 29.5G W PV modules from China, an increase of 77% compared with the same period last year. Affected by the energy crisis brought about by the war between Ukraine and Russia
last year, the demand for photovoltaic in the European market increased substantially and led to the growth of the global photovoltaic market. Although the pulling force slowed down significantly in the fourth quarter of 2022, the demand for photovoltaic modules in China has rebounded rapidly since the beginning of 2023, which was originally a relatively off-season in January to March. Its strength is even far beyond the level of the peak season in 2022.
In fact, since January this year, a large number of goods in Europe have caused many questions in the industry. According to InfoLink, the overall installed capacity in Europe last year was only about 40-45GW, compared with 86.6GW imported from China in 2022, it is speculated that there is still some inventory in the region, but the rebound in customs data since the beginning of the year shows that the problem of inventory absorption has been improved. One of the reasons for the significant increase in Chinese component imports in Europe is that Chinese manufacturers strategically stock up early to seize the market before the arrival of the peak demand season. In addition to the Netherlands as a transshipment hub in Europe and Germany with strong demand growth, it is also expected that Spain, Poland and other countries with rapid development in recent years will further drive the growth of photovoltaic demand in Europe in 2023.
In
March, the Asia-Pacific market imported 3.9 GW of PV modules from China, with a month-on-month increase of 26% and an increase of 3% compared with March last year. In 2023, the cumulative import of 9.5G W PV modules from China decreased by 24% compared with the same period last year. The large demand in the Asia-Pacific market in the first quarter of
last year mainly came from the Indian market to pull a large number of goods before the BCD tariff was imposed in March 2022. Although India's photovoltaic demand for China shrank rapidly after the tariff came into effect, the average quarterly pull from China in 2022 was less than 100MW, but in 2023, it can be clearly seen that the Indian market began to recover. India imported about 550 MW of PV modules in March, and the cumulative imports in 2023 have exceeded 1.5 GW, indicating that although the trade situation is still unfavorable to imports, the huge potential demand and the completion deadline of previously deferred projects have enabled India to restore the momentum of pulling goods.
In addition to India, other major countries include Japan and Australia, but the fluctuations are relatively flat; In the first quarter of 2023, the country with obvious growth in the Asia-Pacific region is Pakistan. Affected by high electricity prices and unstable power supply, Pakistan began to develop photovoltaic rapidly. In March, it imported more than 900MW photovoltaic modules from China, which is the largest source of demand in the Asia-Pacific market this month.
Americas
The Americas imported 3.1GW PV modules from China in March, with a month-on-month ratio of 61% and a year-on-year growth of 144% compared with March last year; the cumulative import of 7.6GW PV modules from China in 2023.
Brazil is still the largest PV market in the Americas. In March, China imported about 2G W modules, accounting for 64% of the total American market in that month. It is also the second largest PV module market in China this month, second only to the Netherlands, the European transit port. Since 2023, Brazil has imported more than 5G W PV modules from China. As the new power framework under the 14.300 Act came into effect in early January 2023, a large number of grid-connected applications have been accumulated before the new regulations against distributed projects are officially launched. It is expected that the installation of these projects to be built will continue to boost Brazil's PV demand in the short term. Other countries in the American market mainly include Colombia and Chile, whose total demand is relatively small compared with Brazil, but we can see that the market size has increased significantly compared with last year. In the
Middle East and Africa
, the Middle East region imported about 1GW photovoltaic modules from China in March, up 18% month-on-month and 59% year-on-year. The main sources of demand are Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have imported 1.5GW photovoltaic modules from China in 2023. It accounts for about 60% of the total demand in the Middle East; it is mainly composed of large-scale ground projects, and the current accumulated projects under construction are very considerable, which is expected to bring sustained growth in demand in the Middle East.
Africa imported 731 MW PV modules from China in March, and the overall market size is small, with South Africa as the main source of demand. South Africa imported 467 MW of PV modules from China in March. The local power generation capacity in South Africa is seriously insufficient. For a long time, the power supply has been stabilized through power rationing, so the government hopes to solve the power problem through renewable energy. Since 2023, subsidies for distribution projects have been introduced to promote photovoltaic development. Under the influence of the policy, the cumulative imports in 2023 have exceeded 1GW, which is the key country for photovoltaic development in the African market.
Overall, China's PV module export data in January and February exceeded expectations, and the export volume in March reached a new peak, pushing up China's PV module export volume to more than 50GW in the first quarter. Although the rapid growth of overseas demand is excellent news for the industry, there are also many hidden worries. In addition to the actual consumption of imports, whether a large number of goods pulled in the first quarter will have a negative impact on the follow-up demand in 2023 is also a matter of great concern in the industry. According to past experience, Europe, as the largest overseas market, will usher in the peak season in the second and third quarters, but in the first quarter, it has accumulated nearly 30GW of Chinese PV module imports, so it is estimated that the second quarter of this year will be difficult to achieve the same substantial growth as in previous years.
浙公网安备33010802003254号