2023, 2023 report, he said that in the first 10 months of 2023, the output of polysilicon, silicon wafers, batteries and modules increased by more than 72% year-on-year, and the output value exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan; the newly installed capacity reached 142. The output of the four links and the newly installed capacity reached a record high. In the first 10 months of this year, The growth momentum of photovoltaic industry is strong, the output of photovoltaic manufacturing and the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation have reached a record high, and the output value of manufacturing has reached a record high year on year. Among them, the manufacturing side is still running at a high level. From January to October, the output of silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries and components increased by more than 70% year on year. Among them, the output of polysilicon was about 1.14 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 86%; the output of silicon wafers was about 460 GW, with a year-on-year increase of 79%; the output of cells was about 404 GW, with a year-on-year increase of 74%; and the output of modules was about 367 GW, with a year-on-year increase of 72%. The growth in the first three quarters was even higher than 85%, and the output of all four links exceeded the annual output in 2022. installed capacity structure, centralized PV has developed rapidly, with a year-on-year growth of more than 250% in the first three quarters. As the first batch of large wind and solar bases must be connected to the grid before the end of the year, the proportion of new installed capacity of centralized PV will increase in the following year. In terms of regional distribution, centralized photovoltaic installation areas are mainly concentrated in Northwest and North China , mainly related to the location of large wind and solar bases. The top ten rankings of distributed installations have changed little, and they are basically concentrated in East and Central China . Among them, Hunan grew faster and entered the top ten for the first time. in the development market of household photovoltaic installation: 1 . From the original Hebei-Shandong-Henan to Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Fujian and other southern provinces and cities. 2. In addition to the single economic attributes considered before, household photovoltaic application scenarios also need to consider practical and aesthetic aspects. The proportion of sunshine houses and sunshine sheds has increased from less than 10% to 40%, and even reached 80% -90% in some areas. In terms of exports, there has been a big change this year. From January to October, the export volume of silicon wafers, batteries and components was about 43 billion US dollars. In terms of export volume, there was a slight decline compared with last year. 2022 is a "volume and price increase", while this year is a " volume increase and price decrease ". However, from 2021 to October this year, the cumulative export volume of photovoltaic products (silicon wafers, cells, modules) has exceeded 122.6 billion US dollars . In less than three years, the cumulative export volume exceeded 44% in the five years of the 13th Five-Year Plan period. From the analysis of export volume, the export volume of silicon wafers, batteries and modules in the first 10 months of this year was 55.7 GW, 32.4 GW and 177 respectively. In addition, the trend of diversification of export market in the first 10 months of this year was more obvious . In the first 10 months of this year, the average market share of foreign markets dropped by more than 1 percentage point compared with the same period last year, indicating that the concentration of the top 10 foreign markets is declining, and emerging markets are developing rapidly, such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia. Among them, although Europe is still not the main overseas export market of China's photovoltaic industry, it has dropped by about 2 percentage points year on year. In terms of the price of the industrial chain, if we want to comment on the hot words in the photovoltaic industry this year, one is "surplus" and the other is "price reduction". Since February this year, the price of photovoltaic modules has been declining all the way. From the analysis of bid opening price, the price of N/P type continues to decline; the average price of N type is higher than that of P type; the price reduction speed is accelerated . It took only about one month from the first bid price of less than 1 yuan/W on October 30 to the overall bid price of less than 1 yuan/W. In terms of financing , there has been a phased tightening trend in financial policy since August this year, which has a certain impact on listed financing. According to incomplete statistics, there will be 15 photovoltaic related enterprises newly listed in 2022, and only 5 in 2023 so far. At present, the progress of about 40 photovoltaic enterprises waiting for listing will slow down. Since this year, the news of the termination of corporate IPO has been coming out. 2. Development trend According to IEA forecast, renewable energy generation will rise to 50% by 2030. By 2030, the installed capacity of renewable energy will increase in the established policy scenario (STEPS). 2 . According to COP28, GRA and IRENA reports, in terms of investment, Solar investment is expected to reach $ 382 billion in 2023, while oil investment will reach $371 billion. This is the first time in history that solar investment has surpassed oil . According to the above situation, China Photovoltaic Association once again raised the scale forecast of the global and Chinese photovoltaic market in 2023. The global installed capacity forecast in 2023 is raised to 345-390 GW; the domestic installed capacity forecast is raised to 160-180 GW. On the manufacturing side, the global photovoltaic manufacturing industry has accelerated its expansion. Driven by the endogenous demand of the market and the construction of local supply chain, globalization and localization coexist, with China, the United States, India and Europe as the main targets. According to the IEA forecast , by 2027, the proportion of photovoltaic capacity in China will drop by 5 percentage points, and the proportion of production will drop by 15 percentage points. However, there are the following uncertainties in this forecast : 1 . According to the survey and statistics of the American Solar Energy Association, the American Inflation Reduction Act has been announced for one year. A total of 155GW capacity plans were announced in the United States. However, in fact, only a small part of the module capacity and a very small part of the inverter capacity have been put into construction. According to Wood Mackenzie's latest report, only 48% of the planned capacity in the United States is expected to be put into production in 2026. 2. At present, the manufacturing cost of components in China is more than 50% lower than that in Europe and the United States; the total manufacturing cost is 35% lower than that in Europe, 20% lower than that in the United States, and 10% lower than that in India. In addition, it is also necessary to consider the cost performance of its construction. Most importantly, China also has the most complete photovoltaic supply chain system in the world. At present, to cater to the current trend, China's photovoltaic enterprises are also actively stepping out of the overseas market. Although the above-mentioned European and American countries are big global markets, there are also many challenges such as the double anti policy.Photovoltaic enterprises should broaden their horizons and not only focus on these markets. General Secretary Xi's proposal of "building a Belt and Road country Finally, the photovoltaic industry should develop with high quality, combine with informatization and digitalization, and integrate with optical storage and information. The intelligent upgrading industry of photovoltaic industry has achieved initial results. At present, there are 80 smart photovoltaic pilot demonstration enterprises and 93 smart photovoltaic pilot demonstration projects, which effectively guide the industry to upgrade intelligently and promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry.
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