After the IPO Meeting of the Old Three Batteries, the Upstream and Downstream "Suffer"? Two Questions on Regulation: Is the Future Sustainable?

2023-12-19 18:25:13

Under the impact of integration, the "collective dilemma" of specialized manufacturers.

On the afternoon of December

15, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that Jiangsu Zhongrun Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd. met the requirements of issuance, listing and information disclosure.

In other words, Runguang can successfully pass the meeting in the third battery slice.

Source: In the past two rounds of inquiries by Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the


backward production capacity of Zhongrun Solar Energy Prospectus has been eliminated slowly, and the sustainability of its performance has been questioned

. Zhongrun Zhongrun Light Energy disclosed in the declaration that from 2020 to 2022, the total revenue of the company was 2.533 billion yuan, 5.089 billion yuan and 12.552 billion yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 122.61%." The company's revenue has reached 10.769 billion yuan. According to Zhongrun's annual revenue of 20.222 billion to 24.712 billion yuan in 2023, if the performance is realized, the three-year compound growth rate will be as high as 113

. The company's actual net profit is the main point of debate. The net profit of the company in the first three years is 112 million,-192 million, 830 million and 9.

Digital New Energy DataBM. Com also found that compared with Runyang, another specialized battery company , the company also had a big gap in gross interest rate in the previous three years, from 2020 to 2022. The gross profit rate of Zhongrun Solar Energy was 12.56%, 5.28% and 14.11% respectively; During the same period, the gross profit rate of Runyang shares reached 19.62%, 10.91% and 16.

In the reply letter, the company said that the main reason for the large difference with Runyang shares was that the company lagged behind in the expansion of 182 mm batteries and overseas operations . At the same time, due to the slow progress of production capacity elimination of polycrystalline silicon cells, the gross profit margin is relatively low compared with Tongwei shares in 2020-2021. By the end of June 2023, the revenue of Zhongrun Solar Energy polycrystalline cells is still 3.

The third cell has no bargaining power? According to the list of photovoltaic cell shipments released by com in the first half of 2023, Zhongrun Solar Energy ranked third with 13-14 GW shipments, second only to Tongwei and Aixu. Runyang shares and Junda shares are 12-13 GW, respectively. 11.

List

of Cell Shipments in 2023 Source: Digital New Energy DataBM.

Source: In the first round of audit inquiry of Zhongrun Solar Energy, Shenzhen Stock Exchange raised questions

. In the first inquiry reply of Zhongrun Solar Energy, Digital New Energy DataBM.

is not only 182mm." Similar situations have occurred many times in the company's previous strengths of 166mm and below, which shows that the company's bargaining power to the upstream is weak. Can not be strong

on the top, the same helpless on the bottom.

In view of the question of whether Shenzhen Stock Exchange is in a weak position in the supply chain. Zhongrun Solar Energy only said that in 2021, due to the high price of raw materials in the upstream and the "double control of energy consumption" and other reasons, the operating rate of downstream component manufacturers continued to be low, so the increase in the production cost of cells could not be transmitted to downstream component manufacturers in time, that is, the increase in the price of cells was less than that of raw materials.

In the second round of inquiry, Zhongrun Solar Energy also admitted that there is a certain degree of imbalance between supply and demand in the current battery industry, that is, the capacity construction and output release of this link are higher than downstream procurement demand. This may also mean that the company's bargaining power for downstream component manufacturers will be further weakened. 19.9 Billion

in Debt for Expansion, Buyers "Gone"?

Source: Prospectus

of Zhongrun Solar In 2020, the module output of Trina Solar was 12.36 GW, the cell output was only 7.2021, and the module output of the company was 24.235 GW. The

latter may be the main reason why Trina later abandoned the purchase of Zhongrun Solar Energy products. Zhongrun Solar Energy did not announce until 2023 that it would speed up the development of 210 mm large-size double-sided TOPCon high-efficiency cells to respond to the market. The 210mm production base, Jiangsu Longheng Phase III and Zhongrun Xuzhou Phase II, will not be put into production until 2023. Before that, the 182mm size was the largest product series of the company.

In fact, in 2022, Trina Solar's cell gap did not decrease but increased, expanding from 22.03% in 2021 to 25.

Can Chuzhou 8GW Phase II project be built by raising 2 billion yuan to save the hearts of downstream customers? Jinko Energy, which occupies the company's largest customer position

all the year round, has a cell production capacity of 24 GW and 55 GW in 2021 and 2022 respectively, and will reach 90 GW by the end of 2023. According to Huatai Securities, the self-supply rate of Jingke Energy's batteries will increase from 35% in 2020 to 79% by the end of this year, and the rate of increase is very rapid. Jingao Technologies, which has replaced Tianhe as the second largest customer of Zhongrun

in the past two years, also said at the end of October that it expects battery capacity to reach about 90% of component capacity by the end of 2023.

However, Zhongrun believes that although the production capacity of downstream component manufacturers continues to increase, the production gap will continue to bring stable demand for the company's products.

By the end of 2023, the production capacity of Zhongrun Solar Cell will exceed 50GW." Behind this is the company's continuous debt expansion.

From 2020 to 2022 and in the first half of 2023, the company's asset-liability ratio was 92.29%, 95.56%, 79.38% and 79 respectively. By the end of the third quarter of this year, the company's total liabilities had reached 19.914 billion yuan, an increase of 77.

All can be viewed after purchase
Correlation

On June 5, Aixu announced that the company intends to sign the Agreement on Resource Development of Wind Power Projects in Central Linyi County (hereinafter referred to as the "Development Agreement") with the People's Government of Linyi County, Dezhou City, Shandong Province, with a total investment of about 750 million yuan, and invest in the construction of Linyi 112.5MW Wind Power Project in Linyi County.

2025-06-05 18:49:32

Under the impact of integration, the "collective dilemma" of specialized manufacturers.

2023-12-19 18:25:13

Some rush forward with their heads broken, and some turn back when they know.

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The dispute has not been disclosed for nearly two years, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange inquired about the reasons for Dongfang Risheng.

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