1. Market Overview
In the first quarter, the total output of cement in China was 402 million tons, an increase of 4.1% over the same period last year. In March, the output of cement in China was 206 million tons, an increase of 10.4% over the same period last year. Overall, the northern region is affected by low temperature and polluted weather, the pace of construction is slow, the demand recovery is not good, the temperature in the southern region continues to rise, and the shipments of cement enterprises are positive. From the perspective of Zhejiang region, market sales rebounded, demand continued to improve, the market continued to strengthen, the data stopped falling and rebounded, to achieve a stable and good opening.
2. The completion of
the main indicators of the development and application of bulk cement in the whole province (1) The bulk rate of cement. In the first quarter, the bulk rate of cement in the whole province was 86.03%, an increase of 0.70 percentage points over the same period last year. Of the eight cities listed in the bulk rate guidance target evaluation, four cities exceeded the average level of bulk rate in the whole province, namely, Jiaxing 94.20%, Huzhou 91.18%, Ningbo 90.04% and Hangzhou 88.08%.
(2) Supply of cement and bulk cement. In the first quarter, the total cement output of the province was 23 million 560 thousand and 600 tons, an increase of 684 thousand and 400 tons, an increase of 2.99%. The total supply of bulk cement in the province was 20.269 million tons, an increase of 748400 tons, an increase of 3.83%. Among them, in March, the province's cement output was 12.2994 million tons, an increase of 3.0311 million tons, an increase of 32.70%, and the supply of bulk cement was 10.6396 million tons, an increase of 1.3713 million tons, an increase of 14.79%.
(Three) the amount of bulk cement used and the amount of transit storage. In the first quarter, the total use of bulk cement in Wenzhou, Taizhou and Zhoushan was 4.0576 million tons, a decrease of 942300 tons, or 18.84%. Among them, 2 million 101 thousand and 500 tons were completed in February, a decrease of 47 thousand and 100 tons, a decrease of 2.19%. The bulk cement transfer depots in Ningbo, Taizhou and Wenzhou were listed as statistical objects, with a cumulative volume of 818,500 tons in the first quarter, an increase of 366,800 tons, an increase of 81.22%.
(IV) Ready-mixed concrete output. In the first quarter, the cumulative output of ready-mixed concrete in the province was 56.3676 million cubic meters, an increase of 4.0375 million cubic meters, an increase of 7.71%, and the output of ready-mixed concrete in March was 27.6494 million cubic meters, an increase of 6.0305 million cubic meters, an increase of 27.89%. Compared with February, it increased by 13.9287 million cubic meters, an increase of 101.52% annually.
(V) Output of ready-mixed mortar. In the first quarter, the cumulative output of ready-mixed dry-mixed mortar in the whole province was 2.6955 million tons, a decrease of 268.1 million tons or 9.04% compared with the same period last year. The output of ready-mixed mortar in March was 1.695 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 141,300 tons, a decrease of 7.69%, an increase of 843,700 tons over February, an increase of 99.11% annually.
3. Operation analysis
(I) Main volume rate indicators
1. Cement bulk rate increased year on year. Reason analysis: From the data point of view, in the first quarter, the supply of bulk cement in the whole province increased by 0.84 percentage points over the same period of last year, and the consumption of concrete increased by 7.71 percentage points over the same period of last year, which had a greater pulling effect on the increase of bulk rate; From the actual situation of the industry, since the implementation of Class B management of the COVID-19 epidemic, the economic operation of the whole province has picked up and is expected to be stronger, and the industry has resumed production rapidly. In addition, in early March, the weather in Zhejiang was mainly fine, the construction site was gradually normal, and the market demand was gradually restored, which stimulated the production of cement enterprises and further increased the supply of bulk cement.
2. Cement production and bulk cement supply increased for the first time this year. In the first quarter, cement production and bulk cement supply turned from negative to positive for the first time, with an increase of 2.99 percentage points and 3.83 percentage points, respectively, 2.13 and 3.32 percentage points higher than same period last year. The main reason is that in March, the cement industry and downstream industries gradually get rid of the adverse factors such as supply exceeding demand, shutdown during the Spring Festival, low temperature and rainy weather, and are expected to improve. However, industry practitioners still need to take a calm view of the current recovery of cement demand: First, the Spring Festival holiday earlier this year and the impact of the receding epidemic are variables that cannot be ignored. Since the fourth quarter of last year, affected by the resurgence of the epidemic, the expected demand in the peak season has failed, the inventory level of cement enterprises has been rising, and the data increase is related to the stock consumption; Second, in the post-Asian Games construction period, the infrastructure construction of the Asian Games has been basically completed, and the construction demand may further decline, which will affect the cement consumption; Third, during the Hangzhou Asian Games, according to the notification requirements of the Zhejiang Environmental Quality Assurance Program (Revised Edition) for the 19th Asian Games and the 4th Asian Paralympic Games, in order to further strengthen the control of industrial source emissions, or to stop production of cement clinker production lines by more than 50%, this will impact the market supply, and it is expected that the industry will appear. Market participants need to further observe the relationship between supply and demand in the industry and actively respond to it.
3. The output of ready-mixed concrete increased significantly in a single month. In the first quarter, the output of ready-mixed concrete increased significantly. The main reason is that in March, as the economy of the whole province continued to recover, the real estate market gradually restored confidence, the market demand for ready-mixed concrete steadily increased, and the industry confidence was further boosted. From the demand side, after the end of the "two sessions", all parts of the province went all out to carry out economic construction. In the first quarter, the province's economy had a good start. The growth rate of fixed assets investment steadily increased by 9.1% over the same period last year. Many major projects continued to be built, and the market demand further recovered; From the supply side, most construction sites and mixing stations resumed production, and the supply chain of ready-mixed concrete was continuously optimized to further improve production efficiency and reduce costs, thus promoting the increase of production.
4. that output of the ready-mixed mortar is reduce. In the first quarter, the production of ready-mixed mortar still declined year on year, but the monthly production in March was significantly lower than that in February. The main reasons are: on the one hand, the factors that slow down the rate of decline are still playing a role. First of all, there are positive signals in the land market, and the real estate market is picking up. From the perspective of transaction data, driven by the transaction of hot land in Hangzhou and Ningbo, the construction area of residential land in the province increased by 6% year-on-year, and the transaction amount increased by 55% year-on-year. Secondly, the project resumed production quickly, and the demand for sand and gravel was large. According to the data of relevant industry websites, the prices of various raw materials rose by about 0.1-0.8 percentage points in March, and the cost-side support was strengthened, which gradually increased the shipment of ready-mixed mortar. On the other hand, although the real estate market is warming up, there is a certain lag in the use of ready-mixed mortar after the completion of the main structure of the project, and the reflection of the output of ready-mixed mortar in the data will also be delayed.
(2) Analysis and summary
of the first quarter's operation In the first quarter, under the background of the continuous economic recovery of the whole province, the cement industry maintained a stable operation and achieved the goal of opening the door steadily and well, but we should see that the current external environment is becoming more complex, and there are still insufficient problems of unbalanced development in some areas. The foundation for the steady development of the industry still needs to be strengthened. In the next stage, guided by the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, we should adhere to the general tone of steady and progressive work, seize the opportunity of comprehensive recovery of economic and social development, vigorously boost market confidence, and build an "important window" for the "two first" on the occasion of the 20th anniversary of General Secretary Xi Jinping's instructions on bulk cement in Zhejiang Province. Vigorously promote the green and low-carbon development of the bulk industry, write a new chapter of the bulk industry with outstanding achievements, and make new and greater contributions to the overall situation of the country.
4. Requirements
for the next step (1) Implementing the work well and completing the work tasks
of 2023 with high standards. The key work of the development and application of bulk cement in 2023 has been issued, and the indicators of the quantity and rate of bulk cement have been issued. Municipal bulk cement management agencies should carefully study, compare one by one, decompose layer by layer, compact responsibilities and implement them, so as to accomplish all tasks and objectives in an all-round way.
(2) To strengthen the judgment of the situation and promote the high-quality development
of the bulk cement industry in the second quarter, the construction of infrastructure projects is expected to increase steadily, the backlog of demand in the early stage will be gradually released, the seasonal demand will be accelerated to recover, and the demand of related industries in the cement industry will also gradually increase. Bulk cement management agencies at all levels in the province should seize the opportunity to carry out their work, strengthen overall planning, improve the working mechanism, strengthen the responsibilities of all parties, and promote the high-quality development of bulk cement.
(3) Deeply study and plan, resolutely implement the mid-term adjustment plan
of the 14th Five-Year Plan, in accordance with the Regulations on Promoting the Development and Application of Bulk Cement in Zhejiang Province. With the approval of the relevant departments and bureaus, the Provincial Department of Commerce issued the Report on the Mid-term Adjustment of the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Bulk Cement, Ready-mixed Concrete and Ready-mixed Mortar in Zhejiang Province, inviting the municipal bulk cement management agencies to conduct in-depth research and study and earnestly implement it.
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