of the Float Glass Industry in the First Half of the Year (I) Market Review In the first half of 2023, the price trend of float glass in China increased, rising first and then falling. As of June 30, the national average price of glass closed at 1964.61 yuan/ton, up 18 compared with the end of last year. The first quarter is the off-season demand for float glass, but the glass market is rising against the trend, the contraction of supply and the improvement of demand are the main reasons. The rally lasted until mid-May and then entered a downward channel. Figure 1: Price trend of float glass in China in 2023 H1 (yuan/ton) Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.) At the same time, a number of production lines entered cold repair from December to mid-January, and the supply dropped temporarily. Therefore, the price of float glass rose everywhere in January. In February, the national glass price dropped slightly. The main reason is that downstream factories gradually resume operation between the festival and the fifteenth day of the first lunar month, but the demand is just in the start-up stage, and glass manufacturers have the will to continue to raise prices. However, the current inventory of manufacturers and traders is not low, the willingness of downstream and distributors to stock up is not strong, the supply side is also in the process of accumulation, the inventory has risen slightly, so the spot price of glass has not risen in an all-round way, reflecting the rise and fall of various provinces. In the first ten days of March, although there was no obvious improvement in the terminal demand, the demand for replenishment was slightly warmer, and the market began to rise. In the middle and last ten days, the downstream terminal orders in some areas improved. In addition, stimulated by the price increase, the downstream replenishment enthusiasm continued to rise, the inventory of glass manufacturers dropped sharply, and the glass market continued to rise. In April, the national glass market accelerated to rise, with a month-on-month rise of 21. Supply declined, demand steadily rebounded, especially the demand for replenishment continued to rise under the stimulation of the rising market, and the inventory of glass manufacturers dropped sharply, which is the fundamental reason for glass to go out of the independent market. Since May Day, with the decline of glass production and sales, glass enterprises have entered the accumulation stage again. Recently, with the arrival of the rainy season, demand has declined, and glass prices have fallen since the middle and late May. On the one hand, the decline in the market is due to the arrival of rainy season and high temperature weather, which weakens the terminal demand for glass. On the other hand, with the rise of prices in the early stage, the stock in the middle and lower reaches is sufficient, and the demand for stock and speculation is also temporarily suspended, resulting in a decline in the overall demand for glass. At the same time, the number of production lines has increased, the supply has increased, and the glass enterprises have entered the accumulation stage again. June summer high temperature, plum rain weather, weak demand, narrow fluctuations in inventory, spot market fell in the off-season, glass futures prices rose under policy expectations. The supply is relatively stable, but the capacity climbing of the production line in the early stage has a greater suppression effect on the off-season market. Supply 
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float glass 1. Supply of production capacity increased
slightly By the end of June 2023, there were 307 float glass production lines in China, with a total production capacity of about 19. In the first half of the year, 6 new production lines were put into operation and 14 production lines were resumed. In the first half of the year, the total daily melting volume increased by 15100 tons, and the total daily melting volume decreased by 7900 tons in the cold repair of 14 lines of float glass, so the net increase of production capacity supply in the first half of the year was 7200 tons.
With the rise of the market, the willingness of glass enterprises to resume production has also increased. The production capacity of ignition in the second quarter has been increasing. Most of the new production lines put into operation in the first half of the year are concentrated in the second quarter, while the production capacity of cold repair is mainly concentrated in June. Therefore, in the first half of the year, the supply of production capacity rose first and then fell.
Figure 2: Daily melting volume of cold repair and resumption of production of float glass production line in each month of H1 in 2023 (tons)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
2.
The inventory of float glass enterprises was successfully reduced. In the first quarter, the inventory of float glass rose first and then fell, from more than 60 million heavy boxes at the beginning of the year to more than 80 million heavy boxes at the beginning of March. Then the inventory of enterprises continued to decline from March to April, and the problem of high inventory was gradually alleviated.
Figure 3: National float glass enterprise inventory (unit: 10,000 heavy boxes)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Figure 4: Float glass enterprise inventory (unit: 10,000 heavy boxes) 0 HTML 0 UN K16 Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.) It is estimated that the national demand for float glass in the first half of 2023 will be 12.1021 million tons, with a year-on-year decline of 27.0 HTML0 https://data.ccement. 7. From January to February this year, the apparent demand for float glass declined sharply year on year. After entering March, there was a significant recovery, on the one hand, it was warmer than previous demand trough, on the other hand, because of the sharp decline in demand in March last year due to the impact of the epidemic, the base was low, resulting in a higher year-on-year growth rate. After entering April, demand slowed down and returned to a state of decline in May and June. 0 HTML0 https://data.ccement.com/ 8 Figure 5: Monthly Apparent Demand and Year-on-year Growth Rate of Float Glass in China 0 HTML0 https://data.ccement.com/ 9 Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/) 0 HTML0 UNK2 0 In 2023, the output of deep-processed glass decreased first and then increased. In the first quarter, the output of three kinds of deep-processed glass declined in an all-round way. By the end of June, the output of laminated and insulating glass had turned to rise, increasing by 5.1% and 2.0% respectively in the first half of the year; The increase and decrease in the output of deep-processed glass indicates the differentiation of the demand for glass for different purposes. On the other hand, it may also be due to the poor payment collection in the past two years, the deep-processing manufacturers are more cautious in receiving orders, and the adjustment of orders according to the payment collection situation has increased. 0 HTML0 UNK2 1 Figure 6: Cumulative growth rate of monthly production of deep-processed glass (%) 0 HTML0 UNK2 2 Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/) 0 HTML0 UNK2 3 1. From January to June, the national real estate development investment was 5.86 trillion yuan, down from the same period last year. From January to June, the housing construction and new construction area of real estate development enterprises decreased by 6.6% and 24% respectively. The completed area increased against the trend, up 19% from the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed down slightly.
Figure 7: Year-on-year growth rate of various indicators of national real estate development (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
From January to June, the year-on-year growth rate of completed area in all major regions of the country increased. Among them, the northeast and southwest regions had the largest increase, with a year-on-year increase of 49.23% and 26% respectively.
Figure 8: The completed area of real estate in six regions of the country (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement. In this context, on July 24, For the first time, the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee no longer mentioned "no speculation in housing", but replaced it with "adapting to the new situation of major changes in the relationship between supply and demand in China's real estate market", which provided a direction for local governments to introduce policies related to real estate in the second half of the year.
On the 31st, the National Development and Reform Commission issued "Measures to Restore and Expand Consumption", which mentioned stabilizing bulk consumption and "supporting rigid and improving housing demand". We should do a good job in ensuring the delivery of buildings, people's livelihood and stability, improve the basic housing security system and supporting policies, expand the supply of affordable rental housing, and focus on solving the housing problems of new citizens, young people and other groups with housing difficulties. We will steadily promote the renovation of old residential areas, further play the role of special maintenance funds for residential buildings in the renovation of old residential areas and the renovation of old residential elevators, and continue to support residents of old residential areas in cities and towns to withdraw housing provident fund for the renovation of self-occupied housing such as the installation of elevators. Actively and steadily promote the transformation of urban villages in mega-cities. We will continue to promote the project of improving the quality and safety of rural housing, continue to implement reconstruction of dangerous houses in rural area, support the seismic renovation of rural housing in fortified areas of 7 degrees and above, encourage simultaneous energy-saving renovation and quality improvement of rural housing, and improve the living conditions of rural residents. Real estate demand is expected to pick up in the second half of the year.
2. From January to June, the production and sales of automobiles increased by 9.3% and 9% respectively compared with the same period last year.
Figure 9: The production and sales of automobiles declined
year on year. Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement. Although it can not return to the peak of the previous two years, With the policy warming up, glass demand is expected to pick up in the second half of the year. At present, float glass has returned to a state of reasonable inventory and relatively balanced supply and demand. Although there was a wave of peak season market in the first half of the year, and the supply of production capacity has also rebounded to a certain extent, the overall recovery of supply is rational, coupled with the expectation of demand recovery in the second half of the year, it is expected that there will still be a wave of peak season market in the second half of the year. Overall, the market will be volatile throughout the year. Review
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PV glass industry in the first quarter (I) Market review
In the first half of 2023, the new production line of PV glass continued to ignite, and the price continued to hover at a low level. As of June 30, the average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass in China was 25.76 yuan/m2, down 5.95% from the end of last year, and the average price of 2.0mm photovoltaic glass was 18.16 yuan/m2, down 10 from the end of last year.
In April, the demand for photovoltaic installation was strong, the market demand for photovoltaic glass improved, and the price of photovoltaic glass rose. In May, the photovoltaic glass market was stable on the basis of the rise in April. In June, module prices were still falling, terminal demand wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and demand for photovoltaic glass slowed down, so the photovoltaic glass market fell again.
Figure 10: Price Trend of H1 PV Glass in 2023 (yuan/m2)
Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
(II) PV Glass Supply Analysis
Basis According to the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by 2022, there will be 40 photovoltaic rolled glass production enterprises in China, with a total of 128 kilns and 442 production lines, with a production capacity of 8. Considering that there are defective products in the production process of photovoltaic glass, and that the edge of the rolled glass needs to be cut off and recycled, the yield data will be lower than designed daily melting capacity. Assuming that the average yield level of the industry is 80%, the effective production capacity of photovoltaic glass in China is 6. More than 50% of these production capacity is concentrated in 2021-2022. The blowout of new production capacity is due to the relaxation of policy on the one hand and the stimulation of downstream demand on the other. In the first half of
2023, a total of 10 photovoltaic glass production lines were ignited and put into operation, with a total daily melting capacity of 11000 tons. In February, due to the stagnation of the Spring Festival market, several production lines were put into operation in other months, of which the highest daily melting capacity in January and March was more than 3000 tons per day. After April, the new ignition capacity declined or was affected by the policy. In May this year, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Further Improving the Risk Warning of Photovoltaic Calendered Glass Production Capacity. At present, many provinces have publicized the sorting out of photovoltaic glass projects. According to the treatment of projects in existing provinces, it is roughly speculated that the treatment method is that projects started before July 31, 2021 need to supplement capacity replacement procedures before cold repair, while projects started after July need to supplement capacity replacement procedures and carry out risk warning. The risk warning level shall be decided by the central government (the local government may make suggestions), and projects with high warning level shall not be put into operation, and projects that have not yet announced the warning level shall not be started. The tightening of photovoltaic glass supply policy may delay the progress of projects under construction and proposed projects, which is expected to control their supply growth.
Figure 11: Production capacity of PV glass production line in each month of H1 in 2023 (t/d)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.) According to the statistical data of the national power industry from January to June released by the National Energy Administration. By the end of June, the total installed capacity of power generation in China was about 2.71 billion kilowatts, an increase of 10. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was about 470 million kilowatts, an increase of 39.8% over the same period last year; The installed capacity of wind power is about 390 million kilowatts, an increase of 13.1-6 months over the same period last year, and the newly installed capacity of photovoltaic power in China is about 78.42 GW. Of which, the newly installed PV capacity in June was 17.
Figure 12: Newly installed PV capacity
in China Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement. Among them, the output of polysilicon exceeded 600,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of more than 65%; Silicon wafer production exceeded 250GW, an increase of more than 63% year on year. Cell output exceeded 220 GW, up more than 62% year-on-year; module output exceeded 200 GW, up more than 60% year-on-year. According to the usual practice in previous years, the second half of the year will be the peak period of production and shipment in the photovoltaic industry.According to the development in the first half of the year, the Photovoltaic Industry Association raised the forecast of China's new installed capacity in 2023 from 95-120GW at the beginning of the year to 120-140GW.
Outlook for
the second half of the year At present, the contradiction between supply and demand in the photovoltaic glass industry is mainly reflected in the relatively abundant supply of production capacity and the slightly depressed market. According to the agency's forecast, the current global production of photovoltaic glass has been able to meet the annual installed capacity of about 400 GW, while the global installed capacity of photovoltaic in 2023 is expected to be around 350 GW. In the long run, there are still a large number of photovoltaic glass projects under construction and proposed. According to statistics, up to now, there are 198 photovoltaic glass projects under construction and proposed in China, with a total capacity of 22. However, the current policy has taken certain tightening measures. In the short term, the enthusiasm of manufacturers for ignition will be reduced, and there will be a period of wait-and-see transition. In the second half of the year, the demand for PV installed capacity will increase compared with the first half of the year, the supply of PV glass will tend to be stable, the supply-demand relationship is expected to improve marginally, and the PV glass market is expected to rise steadily in the second half of the year.
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