Du Zhongming's
energy storage, or the development of new energy storage, is the result of the national strategy and a very important service for us to build a new power system. Because our country's long-term power stations are mainly distributed in the central and eastern regions, but there are certain conditions for the construction of pumped storage systems in the northwest region, but it is not enough to support the development and construction of such a large number of new energy sources and the needs of system absorption. We need new energy storage to play a large-scale role, and its application scenarios are very many, whether in the power side or in the grid side, or in the user side, there are rich application scenarios.
The host
, the National Energy Administration, also has a figure that by the end of 2022, the proportion of energy storage of lithium batteries will reach 94. First, lithium-ion batteries have high energy density. Another is that the current power batteries are mainly lithium-ion batteries. So in terms of industry, it quickly finds the relevant materials to the preparation technology of batteries. In the future, I personally think that lithium-ion batteries will account for a large part of the energy storage market.
But at the same time, there are many electrochemical energy storage, and some may also have many application scenarios, such as water-based batteries, especially such as flow batteries and water-based nickel-iron batteries. Because it is intrinsically safe, and like sodium-ion batteries, although the energy density is lower than this lithium-ion battery, it is still very rich in terms of resources, and there should be a very fast growth space.
Second, its applications are flexible and diverse, including industrial and commercial, UPSs, data rooms, etc., Even now, the balcony power supply in Europe has been embedded in the very deep household end, all of which use lithium batteries.
Third, the advantage is that the industrial chain is relatively mature. Objectively speaking, the lithium battery industry has been developing for 30 years.
Fourth, whether it has been internationally recognized is actually a challenge. The technical route of lithium batteries, including its environmentally friendly recycling. Especially in Europe this year, the issue of carbon footprint has been raised, and it should be said that the lithium battery technology route is the most likely closed-loop.
About the safety of lithium-ion batteries: First of all, lithium-ion is currently the largest commercial batch in all new energy storage. In fact, we may not be able to say its security in general. We may probably involve five aspects. The first is the security of the battery manufacturer's hardware. The second is the system integration security on the integration side. The third is the safety standard of the owner. Fourth, the data control security of the operator. Fifth, there is also a fire safety. Because the most important safety hazard of batteries is actually the problem of consistency, that is, the work of batteries is not uniform.
But from the current process route, the degree of its same frequency is getting higher and higher. Three years ago, people only heard of megawatt-hour power stations. This year, 800 megawatt-hour power stations have appeared. In fact, GWh power stations have begun to appear in the world, so its safety is a dynamic process.
Third, there are no resource constraints, and its electrolyte exists independently outside the battery." And it can be recycled throughout its life cycle;
fourth, to increase the energy storage time, it is only necessary to increase the electrolyte; this is why the main target market of flow batteries now is medium and long-term energy storage, especially in the market of several hours or even daily level.
Finally, the capacity can be restored. Flow batteries can achieve this capacity recovery through online simple chemical means, so that the revenue of the client is guaranteed.
People will ask why battery technology is not used now? Flow battery is inherently safe, but it needs to solve some difficult problems in the process of long-term operation, especially at this low temperature.
It happens that today's dialogue, in fact, the society knows it is good. But there are still some problems for us to overcome, and I think it may be better.
Huang Xuejie
, when we talk about products, we must compare them with the more mature products on the market. Compared with lithium iron phosphate, the cost is not low. If we calculate from the periodic table of elements today, it should be very low. But according to the periodic table of elements, semiconductor chips should not be very expensive, but the technical requirements are very high. What does that mean? On the other hand, only after the scale is increased, can cost be reduced. The second one doesn't last long enough. Today, the battery (life) has reached more than 1000 times, which can drive a car, then 3000 times, which can be used as household energy storage. But the power system requires more than 10000 times. We still have a lot of work to do to improve life expectancy.
Wang Pengcheng's
lithium ion also has a pain point now, that is, the overall cost is still at a high level. So at the end of last year, we took the lead in proposing that in the next five years, we should reduce the cost of electricity in the whole life cycle of new energy storage by half, and we should achieve 20 cents. So the first thing I wrote here is to speed up the pace of cost reduction.
The second point is actually a response to what Academician Chen mentioned just now, which is called continuous updating of dynamic security. In fact, we are also studying some new angles recently. For example, the current production of lithium ion is still a very pure chemical process. So how can we introduce semi-semiconductor manufacturing technology into our electrochemistry, which is equivalent to whether the production of lithium batteries is completely controllable and designable. The third is the recycling system, which should speed up the closed-loop. First, it is ecologically necessary. Secondly, the cost structure will greatly reduce the evidence materials.
Wang Xiaoli
, for flow batteries, especially all-vanadium flow batteries, I think there are three points that we need to speed up to improve.
The first is that the initial investment is on the high side.In our new energy storage, we usually mention two concepts, the first is the initial investment, one-time construction investment; the other is the cost of electricity in the whole life cycle, these are two concepts. The initial investment of flow battery is on the high side, because it has the advantage of long life, and the cost of electricity in the whole life cycle is good, but it still needs to further reduce its route cost.
The second point is on the efficiency side. Of course, this is also directly linked to the cost.
The last one is the industrial scale. Now the flow battery industry chain is initially completed, but the scale is small, after the scale comes up, the whole cost reduction space can also appear.
Chen Jun
, the first point of the three of us is to reduce the cost, but the way to reduce the cost is different. Like this sodium-ion battery, its cost reduction is due to the fact that there is no batch industrialization at present, and there are still many differences in the selection of materials or the selection of technological routes.
Lithium-ion batteries should also reduce costs. In particular, Mr. Wang mentioned a large-scale energy storage, which costs 20 cents per kilowatt hour. I am very much in favor of it. Because he ultimately has to have a comprehensive cost performance, the market should not be too expensive to accept. Of course, the industry chain in the early stage is mainly for power batteries, and there may be some technologies on lithium-ion batteries for energy storage that are not exactly the same as the idea of power batteries. So only on the basis of the industrial chain, how to optimize the technology of energy storage.
Then the cost reduction of flow batteries is mainly a one-time investment, which may require multi-financing. It may be difficult to rely on one company alone. So how to reduce the cost in this area is different.
In addition to technical pain points and cost pressures, the application of chemical energy storage also faces a challenge, that is, many of the key technologies used rely heavily on imports. This chart shows that lithium with the lowest import dependence is also as high as 76%. Why is that? Ccement. Com/richtext/IMG/4jtks1v33v 71692002759037. How can it rise from 40,000 to 600,000 in just three years? This is a sudden increase in our production demand, and the supply can not keep up. So every battery has this kind of resource consideration. How can we achieve resource saving. Recently, I think there are two characteristics of lithium batteries. There are more cobalt-free batteries, more high-manganese batteries and low-nickel batteries. Nickel is also very tense, and there are more high-voltage batteries. So this is a correct direction.
Wang Pengcheng,
I fully agree with what Professor Huang mentioned just now, which is also in line with the direction of the country, called low-carbon, low-cost. What do you mean? In fact, there is no shortage of lithium resources in the world, but the so-called geopolitical policy is that you just want to take his mine back to China to make (batteries) and sell it to him. But if I localize the ecological chain, that is to say, if you need my energy solution, I will do it for you, and I will make money for you. But at the same time, your resources should be used locally for me, so that I can form a self-circulation. Whether it's overseas supply or domestic supply, I think only real internationalization can solve geopolitical problems. I can't simply live at home. I just want to pull things back from abroad. I don't think this will solve the problem.
Africa has a lot of lithium resources, how to get it? So how do you get his mine to refine and at the same time localize to help him provide solutions? He is willing. We have
just found that it is a crisis, but in fact it is also an opportunity.
Chen Jun
's large-scale energy storage, in fact, I personally want to use the three most, the first is to use the least raw materials, the second is to use the lowest energy consumption, the third is to use the lowest emissions, or to use that kind of recycling. This may be a place to consider in the whole design, production and application of batteries.
Huang Xuejie
just talked about the full recovery, and the recovery rate of cobalt in the battery is now more than 99%. Then the recovery rate of lithium can also be further improved, and it is also possible to reach more than 99%. If we can't achieve this high level of recycling, green recycling, then after these batteries are made, what about the next generation in the future?
Background
Power batteries need lithium resources, and energy storage also needs lithium resources. Usually used mobile phones and computers are also lithium batteries, so is lithium enough? Because this car generally carries at least 70 or 80 kilowatt-hours of electricity, more than 100 kilowatt-hours. You don't actually use a lot of electricity to run every day. Once the smart grid is up and running, it can supply electricity to the grid during the peak hours of the day, so some of them have become graceful energy storage vehicles to join the energy storage.
Chen Jun
is actually a good way for electrification to solve large-scale energy storage. Assuming that 100 kilowatt-hours of electricity are used electric vehicle, that's about it. So when our electric vehicle grows to 100 million units, that's 10 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity. What is the concept of 10 billion kWh? In this case, it is a large scale of energy storage.
So this future is another track, that is, the charging pile of electric vehicles in the future may be a simple electric vehicle, and there will be energy storage in the future. The other is the integration of electrification and energy storage. This is also the national policy, and the country has begun to think about the future policy guidance.
The host
then moved on to a few topics that everyone is very concerned about. Will long-term energy storage become the mainstream? At present, about 92% of the installed energy storage time is between 2 hours and 4 hours, and lithium battery energy storage is very suitable. So will long-term energy storage be the mainstream in the future, and will lithium battery energy storage lose its current status? Its premise is that when the proportion of new energy is further increased, and sometimes even reaches 60% to 70%, long-term energy storage will become a rigid demand. We can see that Europe and the United States are setting up long-term energy storage committees, including flow batteries, such as hydrogen storage, heat storage and other technical routes, which have made great progress in long-term energy storage.
Wang Pengcheng
talked about the role of lithium batteries in long-term energy storage. Our view is that lithium batteries have obvious advantages within 4 hours. Within 6 hours, lithium batteries have certain competitiveness and can also participate; above 6 hours, lithium batteries must find a combination with other technologies. It's not impossible for
the host
to do it for a long time, but we can do it, but we have to cooperate with others.
Wang Pengcheng
is right, because all technological paths are fundamentally commercial attributes. Are you cheap enough? Can you help others make money? Technical thinking is only a tool and means of business thinking, otherwise the plate will not be big.
Host
: President Du, is it really so important to store energy for a little more time? Therefore, the security of our country's energy supply is still in urgent need of improvement. For long-term energy storage, we think it is mainly: long time, to ensure that we have enough time to move space, to ensure the initial digestion of our new energy. The second is that long-term energy storage is to ensure our efficient conversion and utilization. In fact, what we have just discussed is the mainstream technology itself, but we are concerned about the efficiency of energy storage.
So do you think long-term energy storage will become the mainstream?
Through the narration of the guests, we know that energy storage technologies have their own advantages and disadvantages. The total cost of sodium batteries is theoretically 30% to 40% lower than that of lithium batteries. At the beginning of the year, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was as high as 600000 yuan per ton, which dropped to only 160000 yuan in April. Although it is now back to 300000, some people think that sodium batteries have lost the opportunity under the sharp price reduction. Is that true?
Host:
The price of lithium has dropped by half. Is the (sodium ion) advantage still there? The so-called short-term energy storage is within four hours. Another great development of sodium-ion battery energy storage is helpful to the development of lithium-ion battery energy storage. It can help keep the price of lithium carbonate at a level that can't go up. Because I believe that when the sodium ion industry matures, lithium carbonate will never reach 600,000, or even 300,000. This is actually of great value to the development of lithium power industry. If
short-term energy storage is done well, it will also be valuable for the development of long-term energy storage. And in this process, it can even form a combination of short and long energy storage.With lithium ion, we are also considering a combination recently. The low temperature performance of lithium iron phosphate is not good, and the low temperature performance of sodium ion is very good. We are also considering the combination of these two. So generally speaking, the role of mutual utilization and promotion of diversified development.
Wang Pengcheng
, I don't think the price of lithium carbonate will remain at this level. From a lot of information we get, there will certainly be a steady downward shock, I think the probability of next year's price discount, the possibility should be relatively large. Of course, everyone has his own opinion, and we will wait and see.
Second, I think the advantage of sodium ion can not be simply looked at the current price. Because in theory, the final cost of a technical route will converge to its own material cost. That is to say, no matter how much lithium falls in the end, the theoretical cost of sodium should be more than that of lithium.
Thirdly, I don't think lithium and sodium are antagonistic. It should be a typical complementary relationship, including the price comparison and adjustment of sodium, including the universality of sodium batteries in specific application scenarios. Whether it is a two-wheeled vehicle, including some models for household use, I think sodium has its space.
Chen Jun's
lithium ion and sodium ion may be more within 4 hours, and the flow battery may be more than one to 8 hours or longer. I think this electrochemical technology is a hundred flowers blooming. Because each company has its advantages and disadvantages, it is hard to say which kind of electrochemical technology is 100% good at present, and then nothing else is good. It is very difficult. Some of them may take a relatively short time, but the emergency response should be quick. Some may take longer. So I think this is a flourishing electrochemical technology.
Wang Xiaoli
actually has a consensus. First of all, the demand is diversified. Therefore, energy storage technology must be diversified. The market targeted by flow batteries is medium and long term. The second is that the scale and volume will be larger, so this is different from lithium batteries or sodium batteries in the terminal market. In particular, the concentration of new energy in our country is characterized by the concentration in the northwest and the use of energy in the southeast, that is, the large storage of energy will become an infrastructure. The intrinsic safety and ultra-long life of
flow batteries, as a public service attribute, are more suitable for it. For example, like chemical industry parks or some textile parks, when it has extremely high safety requirements, its most likely requirements are suitable for flow batteries. The technologies
we have now are more parallel technologies and more technologies to meet the needs of different markets.
Chen Jun
: I think many can complement each other. In the development of Chinese-style modernization, first of all, we still need energy first, such as solar energy and wind energy. The proportion of its power generation will certainly become larger and larger. It is predicted that if carbon neutral in 2060, such renewable energy may be reduced by more than 50%. So this is what we just put forward by President Du, that is, long-term energy storage may be considered from the perspective of the whole of China. So I think long-term energy storage, whether it's lithium-ion, sodium-ion flow or other ways of energy storage, including physical pumped storage, I think synergy will play a role.
Perhaps in a long-term energy storage, there are several different energy storage technologies, considering different application scenarios, there may be multiple complementary energy.
In fact, energy storage should first pay attention to safety, but under this premise, it is still necessary to reduce costs, so that the market can better accept. Do you make money by
storing energy? This has boosted the energy storage market. As of the end of May 2023, 23 provinces in China have made clear the compulsory allocation and storage of new energy, but in fact, few power generation enterprises are willing to actively allocate energy storage if they do not require compulsory allocation, because the allocation cost is too high, which will reduce the rate of return
. Profitability may decline again, how to break this cycle? I think where is the problem? It is laid out along with our new energy power station. As a result, many of our energy storage has not been used effectively or efficiently. Our market mechanism and pricing system are not yet sound.
The next step is to make efforts at both ends. One is to have a certain market dominant position. I want to have a certain price mechanism for it, reflecting its value in the whole new power system. The second is to let it fully participate in the competition of our electricity market. In the process of competition, new technologies are constantly emerging, so that the iteration of this technology is more conducive to the construction of our country's new power system.
Huang Xuejie
talked about this market. If you want to give energy storage a market position, now it is running with this thermal power or photovoltaic, and it does not have an independent market position. Therefore, its value is decided by others, not by the market. His capacity value and the money earned from his peak shaving ability are not available. Because it is not the market that is judged.
So I think it is necessary to establish the market position of energy storage, coupled with good policies, in order to make this matter develop more healthily.
Host
: Before that, our new energy development often relied on subsidies to develop to today. We now have mandatory storage, if one day there is no such policy, can we survive in the market? In the past, there was no (energy storage) link in the generation, transmission and distribution of our entire power system. Now, after the intervention of new energy, there is a link of energy storage. Energy storage ultimately gathers all links of transmission and distribution, so we must bear the cost of energy storage in all links, and also transmit it to the terminal.
So the current mechanism is only a transitional mechanism. In the future, we believe that a fully market-oriented, fully pay-for-performance mechanism will be introduced to determine the value of energy storage and its corresponding benefits. At that time, it was a real market behavior.
Wang Pengcheng's
first conclusion is of course affirmative. Now this is called a transitional mechanism, which is to promote the start of the development of the entire industry, as well as the transitional cycle of policy running-in. Because it is now in the international cycle, as well as the cycle of energy reform, it needs to do this at this point, can not wait. The strong allocation of the whole policy will gradually decline, and finally form a complete market-oriented mechanism.
Second, I call for a mechanism. I am not calling for subsidies. I have three direct appeals. First, the basic capacity tariff mechanism should be introduced as soon as possible. Secondly, diversified market mechanisms, including peak shaving, frequency modulation and black start participation modes, should be introduced. Third, energy storage should be included in the integral system of carbon trading as soon as possible. I feel that only in this way can we avoid the phenomenon of bad money driving out good money.
According to statistics, from January to April 2023, the installed power of electrochemical energy storage increased by 577% compared with the same period last year, so many people are very worried about whether the energy storage is now excessive.
Chen Jun
, I think it is still a very accurate answer. Unable. In fact, the market has come, the market calls for energy storage, so this is a good thing, I think it is far from meeting the requirements of the market.
In fact, there is no mandatory storage allocation in foreign countries, but in fact, there is a certain proportion of energy storage, and there is still more room for development in the future.
Wang Pengcheng,
my conclusion is the same as that of the academician, no. I don't think the values of the development of this industry have been fully recognized. I think we should promote the sustainable development of green mountains and rivers, which is to promote the comprehensive development of the whole industry and all new energy. Because the demand for electricity in the future will increase hundreds of times and thousands of times, I think we need to have a higher dimension of understanding. The energy industry has a very big possibility, and there is no such thing as surplus or surplus. When
Wang Xiaoli
issued the guidance on the development of this new type of energy storage, she planned to reach 30GW in 2025.Now there are 67GW of such planning volume in various places. But in this process, our government, especially the industry authorities, should do a good job in planning, design, guidance and implementation at the top level. I think this can ensure the healthy development of our energy storage.
Huang Xuejie,
I am more worried that the technological progress is not fast enough. If the progress of technology is faster than expansion of industry, then we don't have to worry about overcapacity. If the low-end production capacity is repeated, of course, there will be problems. So the progress of technology is the key.
In fact, Academician Chen has another identity, that is, the vice president of Nankai University. Is there any plan to set up relevant talent training programs and energy storage related majors to help the development of this industry? So there are the first graduates this year, and there will be more in the future.
Objectively speaking, no university has said that it used to be such a major, but every university may have some relatively basic majors related to it. For example, I am in chemistry, maybe some schools are materials, or some schools are power engineering and thermophysics and so on. But from his foundation, we can see that the requirements of the discipline or the structure of knowledge have undergone tremendous changes. So this requires us to cultivate talents. The State Department's degree-specific entry supports this.
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