On August 11, the national glass price index closed at 138.64, up 3.39% annually, and the price index rose 19.58% year-on-year. The average price of float glass sheets in China was 2102.48 yuan/ton, up 68.87 yuan/ton annually.
Figure 1: Recent Trend
of National Glass Price Index Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
I. Regional Market Analysis: Overall Rise
During the week, the prices of all provinces rose as a whole. According to the price of float glass in 15 sample provinces and cities, Guangdong and Guangxi provinces rose by more than 5% in the week, and the number of most provinces and cities rose by 1-5% annually, mainly in 11 provinces such as Fujian, Jiangsu, Hubei, Shandong and Sichuan. A few provinces have a smaller increase, below 1%, in Shaanxi and Liaoning. See Figure 2 for details.
Figure 2: Changes in Float Glass Prices in 15 Provinces and Cities in China on a week-on-week basis (%)
Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
II. Manufacturers accelerated shipments
on August 13, with 307 float glass production lines nationwide, unchanged from the previous week. There is no ignition cold repair or resumption of production of the production line within a week. During the week, the operating rate of float glass enterprises was 80.66%.
Figure 3: Number of production lines and operating rate of float glass in China (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
During the week, the inventory of float glass production enterprises in China accelerated to decline. The ring ratio decreased by 8.93%. Shipments from all parts of the country have improved during the week. Among them, North China and Central China, as the main production areas, had the fastest inventory consumption, with a decrease of 13.97% and 15.9% respectively. Shipments in East and South China also performed better, with inventories falling by 10.01% and 8.31% respectively during the week. The remaining three districts were relatively stable, and the inventory of glass enterprises in the southwest, northeast and northwest all fell by less than 5% in the week (including).
Figure 4: National float glass enterprise inventory (10,000 heavy boxes)
Data source: cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
III. Analysis of cost changes: the prices of raw materials and fuels rose
, and the prices of glass raw materials and fuels rose during the week. The average prices of natural gas market and petroleum coke market rose by 1.34% and 4.83% respectively. Soda ash market continued to rise, and the price of heavy alkali rose by 1.25% in the week. According to the cost calculation model of Cement Big Data Research Institute, on August 11, the cost of float glass production line (natural gas) was 1,418.03 yuan/ton, up 0.93% from the previous month. The cost of float glass production line (petroleum coke) was RMB1,271.56/ton, representing a month-on-month increase of 2.01%. According to the average price of glass, the average profit of natural gas and petroleum coke production lines is 684.45 yuan/ton and 830.92 yuan/ton, respectively. Recently, the trend of soda ash has been warming up, and the price of natural gas and petroleum coke has also risen in the week, so the cost of natural gas production line and petroleum coke production line has risen in the week.
Figure 5: Float Glass Production Line Cost Trend
Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
IV.
The national glass futures FG2309 contract closed at 1,818.00 yuan/ton, down 32.00 yuan/ton (1.73%). During the week, the price of glass futures fluctuated in a narrow range.
Figure 6: Trend
of Closing Price of Glass Futures Active Contract Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
V. Market Forecast for This Week: The Rising Trend Will Slow Down
with the Coming of the Peak Season. The demand for stock in the middle and lower reaches is strong, and the shipment situation of manufacturers continues to improve. Spot prices rose for five consecutive weeks, and glass futures prices fluctuated in a narrow range. Despite the rise in the market, the supply in August remained stable, and there were no production lines for cold repair and resumption of production and ignition in the week. Under the pattern of demand growth and stable supply, the inventory of enterprises declined rapidly. It is expected that the glass market will continue to rise this week, but the rise will slow down slightly.
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