水泥低成本时代一去不复返!你准备好了吗

2023-04-20 09:32:51

行业的低成本时代已经一去不复返,未来水泥行业的成本压力只会越来越大。

2022年的“寒冬”暴露出了水泥行业诸多问题!从已公布的水泥上市企业2022年年报可以看出,企业的净利润跌幅远高于营业收入跌幅。水泥企业均在年报中直言“能源成本大幅增长”。高成本压力成为企业无法承受之痛!

本周三,在“分享汇·建材一周谈”水泥网APP视频号线上直播中,水泥大数据研究院负责人、资深分析师郑建辉深入探讨水泥行业当前的高成本时代所带来的影响。

具体来看:

大家好,我是中国水泥网水泥大数据研究院郑建辉。去年,水泥行业利润减少了1000亿,但是行业的成本并没有减少多少,反而目前的成本在历史上看已经处于较高的位置。

当全球跨国巨头在广泛应用新技术进行降碳以提高市场认同和竞争优势的时候,国内企业不应该只强调过度的价格竞争,而忽视了成本,包括隐性成本。

我们应该有这么一点共识:行业的低成本时代已经一去不复返,未来水泥行业的成本压力只会越来越大。

我们认为,水泥行业的成本压力至少体现在以下几个方面:

第一是,燃料成本。

过去几年,煤炭价格的上涨令水泥行业非常难以忍受。当煤价大幅上涨时,水泥成本上涨,水泥价格被动上行,但幅度远小于煤价涨幅;当煤价下跌时,水泥成本重心下移,水泥价格易跌难稳。

目前,煤炭依然是水泥行业的刚需,而且将可能持续很长时间。过去煤炭行业通过大力度淘汰产能,改善了供需关系,双碳目标背景下,煤炭行业基本不太可能重启新一轮产能扩张,水泥行业需要做好煤价长期高位运行的准备。

第二是,节能降耗的成本。

去年,工信部等四部门印发了《建材行业碳达峰实施方案》,提出“十四五”期间,水泥熟料单位能耗要降3%以上,大概105公斤标准煤的水平。和全国单位GDP能耗下降幅度相比,水泥熟料单位能耗水平的下降看起来略显宽松。

但是2015年的时候我们国内提出的目标是2020年就要实现105公斤的水平,相当于2025年的目标是延后了五年实现,10年下降6%左右,而同期发达国家的降幅超过10%以上,甚至部分国家达到了15%以上。

目前国内优秀的企业如华新水泥已做到了90公斤左右,但是还有不少大型企业在105公斤以上。

尽管水泥行业过去取得了很大的技术水平的提升,但是我们的能耗水平欠账还很多,而且我们还是以煤炭为主,

替代燃料的使用率极低,而国外部分企业已经达到了50%以上甚至更高的燃料替代率。

2025年,国内的目标是,水泥行业能效标杆水平以上的熟料产能比例要达到30%,能效基准水平以下熟料产能基本清零。

未来一段时间,行业面临技改提升的压力非常大。

第三是碳的成本。

目前国内的碳价是在50~60元/吨,欧洲碳价已经突破了100欧元/吨。去年底,欧盟达成碳关税协议,同时协议明确未来将逐步削减免费碳配额。

有关预计,2030年,欧洲碳价将达到160欧元/吨,我们国内的碳价也会进一步上行。

当前,水泥行业纳入全国碳交易市场的步伐已经越来越近。我们是否准备好了接受更高的碳价,我想大部分中小企业没有准备好。

END

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