2022 has exposed many problems in the cement industry! From the published annual reports of cement listed companies in 2022, we can see that the decline of net profit is much higher than that of operating income. Cement enterprises all said in their annual reports that "energy costs have increased substantially". High cost pressure has become an unbearable pain for enterprises!
On Wednesday, Zheng Jianhui, a senior analyst and director of the Cement Big Data Research Institute, discussed in depth the impact of the current high-cost era in the cement industry in the live broadcast of the "Sharing Hui Building Materials Weekly Talk" cement network APP video line. To be
specific:
Hello, I am Zheng Jianhui from Cement Big Data Research Institute of China Cement Network. Last year, the profit of the cement industry decreased by 100 billion yuan, but the cost of the industry did not decrease much, on the contrary , the current cost has been in a higher position in history.
When global multinational giants widely apply new technologies to reduce carbon emissions in order to improve market recognition and competitive advantage, domestic enterprises should not only emphasize excessive price competition, but also ignore costs, including hidden costs.
We should have a consensus that the era of low cost in the industry is gone forever, and the cost pressure of the cement industry will only increase in the future.
We believe that the cost pressure of the cement industry is at least reflected in the following aspects:
First, the cost of fuel.
Over the past few years, the rise in coal prices has made the cement industry very intolerable. When the coal price rises sharply, the cement cost rises and the cement price rises passively, but the range is far less than increase of coal price; when the coal price falls, the center of gravity of the cement cost moves down, and the cement price is easy to fall and difficult to stabilize.
At present, coal is still just needed by the cement industry, and it will probably last for a long time. In the past, the coal industry improved the relationship between supply and demand by eliminating production capacity vigorously. Under the background of double carbon target, the coal industry is unlikely to restart a new round of capacity expansion, and the cement industry needs to prepare for the long-term high coal price.
The second is the cost of energy saving and consumption reduction.
Last year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other four departments issued the "Building Materials Industry Carbon Peak Implementation Plan", proposing that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the unit energy consumption of cement clinker should be reduced by more than 3%, about 105 kg of standard coal. Compared with the decline of energy consumption per unit GDP in China, the decline of energy consumption per unit of cement clinker seems to be slightly relaxed.
But in 2015, our domestic goal is to achieve the level of 105 kilograms by 2020, which is equivalent to the goal of 2025, which has been delayed for five years, with a decline of about 6% in 10 years, while in the same period, the decline in developed countries is more than 10%, and even some countries have reached more than 15%.
At present, excellent domestic enterprises such as Huaxin Cement have achieved about 90 kilograms, but there are still many large enterprises with more than 105 kilograms.
Although the cement industry has made great progress in technology in the past, our energy consumption level is still in arrears, and we still use coal as the main fuel,
the utilization rate of alternative fuels is very low, while some foreign enterprises have reached more than 50% or even higher fuel substitution rate.
In 2025, the domestic goal is that the proportion of clinker production capacity above the energy efficiency benchmark level in the cement industry should reach 30%, and the clinker production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark level should be basically cleared.
In the future, the industry will face great pressure of technological upgrading.
The third is the cost of carbon.
At present, the domestic carbon price is 50-60 yuan/ton, and the European carbon price has exceeded 100 euros/ton. At the end of last year, the European Union reached an agreement on carbon tariffs, and the agreement made it clear that free carbon quotas would be gradually reduced in the future.
It is estimated that in 2030, the European carbon price will reach 160 euros/ton, and our domestic carbon price will rise further.
At present, the cement industry is getting closer and closer to the national carbon trading market. Are we ready to accept a higher carbon price ? I think most small and medium-sized enterprises are not ready.
END
For more in-depth market analysis and market trends, please pay attention to the live program
of "Sharing Exchange ▪ Weekly Talk" on the APP video number of Cement Network every Wednesday at 3:00 p.m. Attention: To further promote the green, digital and intelligent development of the cement industry, On April 24-25, 2023, China Cement Network will hold the "China Cement Industry Green Development Summit Forum and Ultra-clean Emission Technology Exchange Conference" and the "Fourth China Cement Intelligent Summit Forum" in Changsha, Hunan Province. We sincerely invite industry experts, cement and related enterprises to jointly contribute to the high-quality development of the cement industry! After the meeting, we will visit Sinoma Zhuzhou Cement Co., Ltd. and the first set of international "one-box SCR denitrification project of dust and nitrate".
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