Previously, many agencies predicted that the price of lithium carbonate would fall below 100000 yuan/ton in 2024. It's just that no one expected it to come so soon.
On December 4, according to the delayed quotation of Guangzhou Futures Exchange, the price of lithium carbonate futures has fallen below the 100000 mark. Relevant analysis predicts that the price of lithium carbonate will soon fall below 80000 yuan/ton in the future. The continuous decline of lithium
carbonate price has already become a consensus in the industry, and the imbalance between supply and demand is still the core reason for the decline of lithium price.
Earlier, Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of Gaogong Lithium Power, predicted that lithium carbonate might fall by 100000 yuan per ton in the second half of 2024. Previously, many institutions such as CITIC Securities, CITIC Futures and ILC also predicted that the price of lithium carbonate would fall below 100000 yuan/ton in 2024.
But what we didn't expect was that this day would come so soon.
, which are most affected by the situation, have begun to take action. For downstream enterprises, the plummeting price of lithium carbonate has brought benefits, but at the same time, it has also made them more worried. The most important factor
affecting the price change of lithium carbonate is the supply and demand situation, followed by a series of factors such as changes in policy, industry and international environment. Before
2015, the demand for industrial-grade lithium carbonate accounted for 70% -80% of the total demand for lithium carbonate. The price of lithium carbonate used in limited fields is not only very low, but also very stable, basically fluctuating around 30,000 yuan/ton.
In the next two years, the epidemic hindered the overall economic development. At this time, the development of lithium carbonate was accelerated, the development of lithium power industry was stable, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate in the market were relatively balanced, and the price of lithium carbonate showed a long-term downward trend. By the beginning of 2020, its price was even close to that before 2015.
By 2021, the "double carbon" strategy will accelerate the development of new energy, the sales of new energy vehicles will increase dramatically, and the vigorous development of energy storage industry will make the lithium power industry explode, the price of lithium carbonate will rise, and the market will be in short supply for a while. In 2022, it soared to a maximum of 600000 yuan/ton in just one year. In
2023, the price of lithium carbonate, which had reached its peak, began to fall off a cliff. According to the disclosure of Shanghai Steel Union, in November 2022, battery-grade lithium carbonate began to decline after reaching a high price of nearly 600000 yuan/ton, and fell below 200000 yuan/ton in April 2023. In the same month, its price fell below 180000 yuan/ton, bottomed out and rebounded in May, and the price went to more than 200000 yuan/ton. A month later, the price went to 31.
carbonate futures and options products can effectively alleviate the profound impact of lithium price shocks on the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain and provide risk hedging ; Second, it is conducive to the formation and improvement of the price mechanism of lithium carbonate, which can calm the "roller coaster" fluctuation of lithium price to a certain extent and support the healthy development of the industry.
Although the listing of lithium carbonate futures and options products has promoted the decline of lithium prices to a certain extent, the rate of decline is also somewhat surprising. Lithium carbonate, whose price is predicted to fall to 100,000 in 2024, has now fallen below the 100,000 mark across the board.
Fortune and misfortune depend on
each other. Influenced by the downward trend of lithium mines, many lithium mining enterprises in the upstream of the lithium power industry chain are in a "depressed" situation, while the enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the industry chain are "full of oil" and live a happy life. If the goods of
lithium mining enterprises can not go out, it will cause a large number of goods hoarding, which will further increase the cost of inventory, management and other related costs, and in the case of no or small increase in income, the cost will increase substantially, and the net profit will inevitably decline.
On the other hand, for enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain, the performance of many enterprises has increased substantially. The sudden decline in raw material prices has reduced production costs and purchasing pressure, and at the same time, it has more voice in the transaction, which will eventually bring about the improvement of corporate profits.
In addition, as early as the "soaring" price of lithium carbonate, some enterprises in the middle and lower reaches have begun to explore the upstream (such as signing supply agreements, purchasing mining rights) or other alternative technology routes, and the ability of raw material inventory, control and other aspects has also been improved. Enterprises have a certain ability to resist risks.
Compared with low price, stable lithium price can bring more benefits to the industry. On the one hand, stable prices can make enterprises pay more attention to the quality of their products, rather than production costs; on the other hand, stable prices can make the lithium battery industry develop steadily and healthily, and promote industrial progress. Cui Jian, executive vice president
of Kehua Digital Energy, said that the relative stability of lithium carbonate is actually a better state, and excessive fluctuations will have a certain impact on the expectations of the entire industry, including the pace of the project.
Upstream lithium mining enterprises have long been looking for development opportunities everywhere to accelerate their transformation process. Ganfeng Lithium Industry, which
has the title of "Shuangxiong" of Lithium Mine, has made good achievements in expanding production and signing contracts in recent years through its energy storage battery business of Ganfeng Lithium and Electricity Distribution, and has achieved good results in the "Global Shipment Ranking of China's Energy Storage Enterprises in 2022" released by EESA. Ganfeng Lithium Power ranks fifth in the domestic energy storage battery market and sixth in the world. The global shipment ranking of China's energy storage enterprises in
2022, source: EESA
, and Tianqi Lithium Industry, which is one of the "two heroes" of lithium mines and insists on specialization in the upstream, has also begun to "bow" downward layout. This year, Tianqi Lithium Industry has spent 150 million US dollars (about 10.)
On the diversified layout of lithium mining enterprises in the industrial chain, in fact, it wants to broaden the revenue channels of lithium mining enterprises, improve their sustainable profitability, and ensure their revenue profits in the case of declining lithium carbonate prices. Lithium mining enterprises that are relatively limited to lithium resources have more outlets.
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