On August 9, Silicon Branch, TCL Central and infolink announced the prices of silicon materials, silicon wafers and photovoltaic supply chains this week.
Not surprisingly, the price of silicon materials continued to rise slightly this week, with data released by the Silicon Branch showing that the transaction price of N-type materials rose by 3.48% annually. TCL Zhonghuan raised the company's silicon wafer price twice
in half a month;
at the same time, infolink data showed that the domestic P-type 182mm cell price was also improving, maintaining a 1.4% increase for two consecutive weeks. Regarding the price
of
TCL & nbsp; Zhonghuan silicon wafer, some organizations predict that the price of each link will maintain a strong upward trend in the short term.
However, in a red trend, component prices at the end have entered a pattern of falling for more than three months since the beginning of May, and there has been no sign of stabilization so far.
According to & nbsp; infolink data, from April 27 to August 9, the price of domestic 182mm monocrystalline PERC double-glass modules dropped from 1.72 yuan/watt to 1.3 yuan/watt, a drop of 24.42%; 182mm & nbsp; TOPCon Double glass components also dropped from 1.82 yuan/watt to 1.37 yuan/watt, a decline of 24.72%, and component prices continued to break through the offline.
This trend is becoming more and more intense in the recent centralized procurement of components of state-owned enterprises. On August 1, Zhengtai Xinneng offered a price of 1.18 yuan/watt in the collection of photovoltaic modules in the year 2023-2024 of Guangdong Hydropower. On the same day, in the bidding for 5GW components of the Three Gorges Group, a first-line manufacturer directly quoted a unit price of 1.168 yuan/W, which once again refreshed the new low price of components. When will
components stop falling? It is not clear yet, but from the market point of view, it is difficult to turn at least in August. "In August, the component production planning increased annually, and many component manufacturers were almost full production," Shen Wanhongyuan said in the research report.
Components maintain a downward trend, how will the upstream change? Is the price still rising?
Silicon material: a small callback to grab profits
from the downstream. This month, silicon material has risen four times in a row. The lowest price of N-type material has risen to 80,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of the mainstream dense material in P-type silicon material has also returned to 70,400 yuan/ton. But at the same time, digital new energy DNE also noted that the four major silicon materials, except N-type materials, the lowest price fluctuated greatly, with an increase of more than 4.6%, but the highest price rose by 0.
In the case of low silicon material inventory, the Silicon Branch believes that the bargaining space of silicon material enterprises is increasing, the downstream crystal pulling enterprises are close to full operation, and the demand continues to improve. Subsequently, the market supply of silicon materials will be relatively short.
From the point of view of production capacity, as of this week, 15 domestic silicon production enterprises, 2 maintenance, 3 power rationing, power rationing areas from the southwest to Inner Mongolia, a total of about 15% of production capacity has been affected. In the third quarter, the growth rate of silicon material production is limited, and the price of silicon material still has a large room for repair due to the surging downstream demand. The price game with downstream silicon wafer enterprises will be the key to the rebound of silicon material price.
Silicon Wafers: Tight Supply and Demand & nbsp; Prevent Silicon Materials & nbsp; Also Get Downstream Faces
This week, silicon wafer prices continued to rise slightly. & nbsp; According to the data of infolink consulting, the mainstream transaction price of P-type silicon wafers of M10 and G12 sizes is about 2.95 yuan/piece and 3.92 yuan/piece, while the mainstream transaction price of N-type silicon wafers based on M10/130µm specifications is 3.05 yuan/piece.
On August 9, the price of TCL Zhonghuan silicon wafers rose for the second time in nearly half a month, with M10 and G12 rising by 6-7%. As the downstream demand for N-type batteries continues to be strong, the current inventory of silicon wafer enterprises remains at a low level, which supports the price. In terms of
production capacity, due to the impact of power rationing, silicon wafer size and P/N conversion, the overall supply is tight, but with the increase of production scheduling of silicon wafer enterprises in late August, the shortage situation will be alleviated. However, some organizations are concerned that the risk of increasing inventory of monocrystalline silicon wafers still exists, and whether silicon wafer manufacturers can seize this opportunity to repair profits will depend on whether downstream battery manufacturers take orders.
Cell: Module production reduction & nbsp; Price rise is difficult to sustain
. Recently, the price of domestic mainstream cells has risen again. The latest report of Shen Wanhongyuan shows that the price of P-type monocrystalline M10 high-efficiency cells has returned to & nbsp; 0.74-0.76 yuan/watt, and even a high price of 0.77 yuan/watt. Some high efficiency sections of N-type cells are in short supply, and TOPCon cells are maintained at 0.78-0.8 yuan/watt as a whole.
Downstream active purchasing has supported the recent rise in cell prices, but since this week, some component manufacturers have come out with the news of production reduction, the price of superimposed components has been declining, the price of photovoltaic film, photovoltaic glass and other auxiliary materials has risen, and downstream component manufacturers are under cost pressure. It may be difficult to continue to accept the high price of cells, and it is expected that the current price will be difficult to maintain.
Components: Bottom line of breakdown & nbsp; It is still difficult to raise the price
of raw materials such as upstream batteries, films and photovoltaic glass. Under the circumstances that the price of raw materials such as upstream batteries, films and photovoltaic glass has reached a new high, while the demand for downstream installation is general, component manufacturers continue to grab orders by price for quantity because of the high inventory in the early stage, and quote low prices in the actual purchase.
At present, the mainstream quotation of PERC has fallen below 1.3 yuan/watt, the price of single glass components is between 1.2-1.28 yuan/watt, and even some second-and third-tier manufacturers have experienced cost inversion. It is generally believed that the current domestic component prices are still in a chaotic stage. This is true
at home and abroad. According to the data of Dongguan Securities, on August 2, the price of PERC components produced in India, the United States, Europe and Australia fell by 6.90%/2.63%/2.78%/2.70%. On August 9, the Indian market was affected by weak local demand, and the price of components was reduced again by 0.24-0.3 US dollars. Squeezed
by both the demand side and the cost side, component manufacturers have begun to consider reducing the purchase of batteries since this week, trying to shift the cost pressure to the upstream battery side, but considering the inventory pressure in some areas, in the short term, the price of components is still uncertain whether to go up or down. Full production of
components drives the recent price increase of auxiliary materials. According to SMM data, since July, transparent EVA film has risen by 10%, EPE film by 7%, and POE film by about 0% -5%. After entering August, photovoltaic glass has also joined the ranks of price increases. According to CITIC Securities, some manufacturers have raised the price by 0.5 yuan/square meter in early August. With the continuous decline of inventory in the future, the price increase of photovoltaic glass in the third quarter is just around the corner.
浙公网安备33010802003254号