14, the Green Development Sub-Forum on Intelligent Manufacturing of Ready-mixed Concrete Industry and the Expert Seminar on Industry Policy and Development Situation were held in Chongqing, and the participants discussed the general trend of the industry.
At the meeting, Shi Haixia, Secretary-General of CCPA Ready-mixed Concrete Branch, presided over the release ceremony. The conference also released the "Intelligent Proposal for the Development of Ready-mixed Concrete Industry (Blue Book)" and the "5G + Intelligent Factory" White Paper on Concrete Products Industry.
At the meeting, Lin Jiayi, a commercial mixing analyst at China Cement Network Cement Research Institute, published a report entitled "Green Development Path of Ready-mixed Concrete Industry and Prospects for the Situation in 2023".
He said that in the past two decades, the ready-mixed concrete industry has been guided by many policies, the standards have become more perfect, and the development of the industry has become more standardized. Especially in recent years, the industry has gradually entered a stage of rapid development, and has grown into a trillion-scale industry.
Lin Jiayi said that the two important ways for the ready-mixed concrete industry to achieve the goal of green and high-quality development are cleaner production and low-carbon production. In order to realize cleaner production, efforts must be made in the pollution control of dust, noise, waste water and waste materials. Low-carbon production mainly starts from the raw material end, finished products, production and transportation links of ready-mixed concrete, while the raw material end by reducing the amount of traditional Portland cement is the core link of carbon reduction. It is calculated that the carbon dioxide emissions from the production and transportation of ready-mixed concrete industry in 2020 will be about 35 million tons, accounting for about 5-10% of the total carbon dioxide emissions of the industry. Mixing production is about 10 million tons, logistics transportation is about 25 million tons, and reducing cement consumption through concrete raw materials can reduce carbon dioxide emissions by about 50 million tons.
In addition, extending the service life of buildings and promoting precast concrete components are also important ways to achieve carbon reduction.
Looking forward to the trend of concrete market in 2023, Lin Jiayi believes that the ready-mixed concrete industry will face a slowdown in urbanization, real estate will turn to the stock market, the output of ready-mixed concrete will peak and fall, the debt pressure of real estate enterprises will increase, the willingness to acquire land will be insufficient, the urban investment debt will grow rapidly, and the land acquisition of related enterprises will be limited; At the beginning of the year, the sales of the real estate industry improved, but the pressure of inventory was greater; land transactions were still weak, and it was difficult for new construction to increase significantly in the short term.
He said that the high cost and low gross profit will become the norm in the ready-mixed concrete industry, which poses a greater test to the cost management of enterprises. With the advent of the era of high cost, the concrete industry is more likely to maintain a small profit in 2023, the annual sales profit margin will remain below 4%, and the total profit of the industry will continue to decline. It is estimated that by 2035, the per capita consumption of concrete will be reduced to about 1.5 cubic meters per year, and the corresponding annual demand for ready-mixed concrete will be about 2 billion cubic meters. This means that in the next decade, the annual compound growth rate of ready-mixed concrete production will reach -3%, and the industry will gradually enter the downward cycle.
He predicted that under the background of double carbon, the price of raw materials such as upstream cement is expected to remain high, and the profit margin of sales of ordinary ready-mixed concrete products may further decline.
Lin Jiayi also made suggestions on the green development of the ready-mixed concrete industry.
Concrete enterprises need to scale up: encourage enterprises to merge and reorganize, reduce vicious competition, and optimize the layout of production capacity in various regions;
Concrete enterprises need differentiation: taking green and high-quality development as the core, accelerating the research and development and promotion of high value-added concrete products and services;
concrete enterprises should move towards intellectualization: optimizing production and scheduling, improving industry efficiency, and realizing supply chain and credit information management through intellectualization;
Concrete enterprises should extend the industrial chain: realize the integration of the industrial chain through various ways, properly diversify the development, and enhance the anti-risk ability of the industry.
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