On November 29, the Fifth China Cement Intelligence Summit Forum, sponsored by China Cement Network, was held in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, with the theme of "Data-Driven Decision-Making Intelligence Leads the Future".
At the meeting, Li Kunming, an analyst at the Big Data Research Institute of China Cement Network, made a keynote report entitled Summary and Analysis of the Operation of the Cement Market in 2023.
Li Kunming analyzed the cement market situation this year from the aspects of demand, capacity utilization and industry efficiency.
1. Demand continued to decline from January to October 2023. According to the comparable caliber data of the Bureau of Statistics, cement production decreased by 1.1% from January to October 2023, and the total caliber decreased by 4.2% compared with the same period last year. The main reasons are as follows: the real estate industry has not yet bottomed out (investment decreased by 9.3%); the stock projects are mainly constructed, and the new projects are less (some areas are seriously short of money); the infrastructure drive is not obvious enough (the road transport industry is flat in the same period, and the public facilities management industry has negative growth).
2. The utilization rate of production capacity is low, and the current surplus problem is becoming more serious. This was mainly due to the activation of some zombie capacity by capacity replacement; the actual capacity of enterprises increased through technological transformation, and overproduction occurred from time to time; the same amount of relocation in different places did not reduce the stock capacity; 2023 increased the intensity of peak staggering, and the capacity utilization rate further declined.
3. The industry ecology has been damaged, the cement price has hit a new low since 2018, the industry profit has dropped by nearly 60% from January to September 2023, and the performance of most listed companies has declined.
Looking forward to the future, Li Kunming predicts that from 2023 to 2025, the average annual decline in cement demand will be between 2% and 3%, and in 2025, it will break the platform period by 2 billion tons.
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