This week, the market signing atmosphere of silicon materials has returned to normal, and the overall production level of crystal pulling is rising, but the overall signing price is still falling. The overall price of
silicon wafers is stable under the current meager profit margin, but it is expected that the supply chain will usher in a new round of price competition in December.
The battery sector has maintained a negative profit for a period of time, and some second-and third-tier professional battery manufacturers have begun to have operational difficulties, while individual manufacturers have been slowly eliminated by the market, especially under the rapid shrinkage of demand for P-type batteries, prices have fallen sharply.
Component link, in December, it is expected that large-scale projects on the ground will begin to end, pulling goods will begin to slow down, and there is no clear node this year, which is partly delayed by the bottom of component prices. The distributed spot market is affected by strategies such as dumping and bundling, and prices continue to be chaotic. From the perspective of
specific supply structure, the effective supply of high-quality silicon materials of leading enterprises is flat and has not seen a significant increase; the new supply mainly comes from the production and release of new production capacity, the corresponding quality climbing still needs time to improve, and the trend of structural differentiation of the supply side is obvious.
The market signing atmosphere has returned to normal, and the overall production level of the crystal pulling link is rising, but the overall signing price is still falling. The mainstream price range of block materials dropped to 63-68 yuan per kilogram, with an average price of 65 yuan in the current period, down 3% week on week. The price range of granular silicon has also declined, ranging from 58-62 yuan per kilogram, temporarily maintaining a price difference of 4-6 yuan per kilogram with the price of block materials, but with the decline of the overall price center, the absolute value of the subsequent price difference range is expected to gradually narrow.
By the end of the month, the overall output proportion of N-type silicon wafers in the downstream crystal pulling sector has increased significantly month by month, and the proportion is expected to climb to about 40% monthly at the end of the year. InfoLink closely observes the market trend, and will continue to focus on the supply of silicon materials and the differentiation of product categories, especially the growth capacity and potential change trend of the supply scale of silicon materials that can better meet the use and quality requirements of N-type crystal pulling. The overall price of
silicon
wafers is stable under the current meager profit margin, showing short-term stability in both supply and demand. Considering that the production schedule of battery factories will change significantly next month, the trading atmosphere this week is relatively flat, and the market is waiting for a new round of price competition in the supply chain in December.
This week, the average transaction price of silicon wafers was maintained last week, and the transaction price of P-type, M10 and G12 sizes fell around 2.3 yuan and 3.3 yuan per wafer. For the N-type part, although the transaction price of M10 size dropped slightly to about 2.36-2.4 yuan per piece, the average price last week was still in the process of continuous transaction; for the G12 part, the supply was slightly tight, and the price was maintained at about 3.4-3.45 yuan per piece.
Looking forward to December, with the continuous release of new and old production capacity, manufacturers are worried that if the supply volume is still growing, it will destroy the current supply-demand relationship and lead to a further decline in prices. However, there are still big differences in the current silicon wafer manufacturers'production planning for next month, and some manufacturers' production figures are still rising. Other manufacturers have taken the lead in planning to reduce output, and the subsequent price trend will depend on the changes in the production schedule of the final silicon wafer and battery links. The price
of
batteries has maintained a negative profit for a period of time, observing that the current second-and third-tier professional battery manufacturers have begun to have operational difficulties, and individual manufacturers have been slowly eliminated by the market, although the manufacturers are activ ely external OEM, but under the rapid decline in demand for PERC batteries. Even if it is difficult to maintain a profit margin, only a few leading enterprises can maintain full-load production through the profit distribution of upstream and downstream and the advantages of their own operating conditions.
This week, the transaction price of batteries is still falling. In the P-type part, the transaction price of M10 batteries has dropped to about 0.42-0.44 yuan per watt, and even the updated quotation of 0.4 yuan per watt has seen a small number of transactions; The transaction price of G12 size still maintains a good price in the mismatch between supply and demand, the mainstream transaction price maintains about 0.58 yuan per watt, and the price difference reaches an astonishing 0.16 yuan per watt, which highlights the price adjustment advantage of G12 size in the seller's market under the scarcity of suppliers. Nevertheless, with the end of demand for terminal G12 orders, it is expected that the overall price will quickly return to normal next month, and the price difference will be further narrowed.
In the N-type cell sector, the price of TOPCon (M10) cells remained around 0.49-0.5 yuan per watt this week. However, most of the HJT (G12) cell manufacturers are self-used, and the takeout volume is still small, and the price of the high-efficiency part is about 0.65 yuan per watt. Observe that the price difference between TOPCon and PERC cells is about 0.07-0.08 yuan per watt.
According to this week's statistics, the battery link inventory has been effectively absorbed, currently falling at the level of about 4-5 days. However, the recent price drop is not caused by inventory accumulation factors. Due to the rapid shrinkage of demand for P-type M10 size batteries, the price has fallen sharply, while the G12 and N-type parts still maintain a relatively healthy supply-demand relationship.
Looking forward to the future, due to the rapid conversion of market demand to N-type products, the production of M10 PERC cells will face long-term cash losses. During the period of flat demand at the end of the year, most manufacturers began to plan to reduce production in December. However, due to the adjustment of production scheduling, they are afraid that the follow-up production line will not be able to open again. At present, various companies are still evaluating and calculating the extent of production reduction internally, and next month's battery production scheduling will be the focus of market attention.
Component price
execution price continues to be chaotic this week. Observing domestic demand, it is expected that large-scale ground projects will begin to end in December, and pulling goods will begin to slow down. There is no clear node this year, so it is partly delayed by the bottom of component price. The distributed spot market is affected by strategies such as dumping and bundling, and prices continue to be chaotic. The current price of
182 PERC single-sided module is RMB 0.91-1.03 per watt, and the price of 210 single-sided module is narrowing with the end of the delivery period, and the current price difference is about RMB 0.03-0.05 per watt. It is expected to gradually return to the level of RMB 0.01-0.03 per watt in December. The price of PERC in the overseas Asia-Pacific region is about $0.12-0.13 per watt. The price of PERC in Europe is about 0.11-0.13 euros per watt, and the delivery is also coming to an end. The price
of TOPCon is RMB 0.96-1.18 per watt, and RMB 1.1-1.18 per watt is mostly executed in the early stage, and the price of new orders is about RMB 0.98-1.05 per watt. The overseas price is about 0.13-0.145 US dollars per watt. The
price of HJT is RMB 1.2-1.35 per watt, which is restricted by cost pressure, and the overseas price is still about US $0.16-0.175 per watt.
Looking forward to December, in addition to a small number of manufacturers maintaining a high operating rate due to the support of orders, most manufacturers are responding to the reduction of production, with a decrease of 0.3-0.8 GW, and the overall output is about 48-50 GW. At present, it seems that PERC components are being converted to N-type by demand, and they are indeed accelerating their withdrawal and reducing their production. TOPCon components are stimulated by demand conversion, the heat is still high, considering the release of climbing, production scheduling is still increasing. As the price is close to the bottom, the overall decline in December is expected to narrow. In terms of
glass, new orders for December are being negotiated this week, and component purchasers are trying to push down the price of glass under the situation that component prices are hovering at the bottom and demand is weakening. As far as glass manufacturers are concerned, it is difficult to make concessions easily when manufacturing costs are expected to rise due to fluctuations in raw materials, and the game between the two sides is not yet clear.
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