"The situation of the mixing station is very bad. There is a mixing station next to us that normally ships about 2 million cubic meters. Last year, it was only 700,000 cubic meters, two-thirds less," said a key local enterprise when talking about the cement market in Chongqing.
According to its introduction, the biggest problem facing Chongqing's real estate market is the lack of funds. "Real estate projects are still relatively large, but the financial pressure is very great, whether it is real estate developers, mixing stations or banks, money has become a real house, the house is not selling well now, resulting in the instability of the entire capital chain, the difficulty of prog ramming the project.".
The above-mentioned professionals believe that although the confidence of Chongqing's real estate market has recovered and the volume of transactions has risen since this year, the overall situation is still in the doldrums, and people's enthusiasm for buying houses needs to be improved. In this context, the driving force of the real estate industry for cement demand is very limited.
In the long run, due to the declining birth rate and the increasing household property ownership in China, it is almost impossible for real estate to return to the previous era of high growth in the future, and the main direction of cement demand is infrastructure projects.
It is understood that at present, four railways in Chongqing, including the Chengdu-Chongqing Middle Line high-speed rail and the Chengdu-Dawan High-speed Railway, are under construction or are about to be built. The above industry insiders believe that this will have a greater pull on the demand for cement in Chongqing. With the support of infrastructure projects, the demand for cement in Chongqing will remain high in the next three years.
However, for the vigorous promotion of infrastructure projects, he also expressed concern: "The current situation is that infrastructure projects are advancing rapidly. Stimulated by advanced infrastructure, they provide support for cement demand in the short term. But this way is not much different from drinking poison to quench thirst. With the completion of infrastructure projects in the future, the decline in cement demand may be even greater." The intensity of market competition will be higher.
Of course, in addition to the pressure of market demand, the cost problem is also a key factor restricting the development of local enterprises. Especially for coal, although the price has fluctuated this year, it is still at a high level as a whole, coupled with various hidden cost expenditures such as energy-saving and environmental protection transformation, the cost pressure of cement enterprises is still very high.
On the one hand, the demand is insufficient, on the other hand, the cost is high. Faced with such problems, the above-mentioned people believe that improving supply is an inevitable choice for Chongqing cement industry to achieve stable development in the short term, but it is not easy.
It is understood that the market concentration in Chongqing is relatively low, and in the market competition and cooperation, there is a lack of leading enterprises to lead, resulting in a more chaotic market structure and insufficient implementation of off-peak kiln shutdown. "Especially in the past few years when the market was good, some enterprises also made a lot of money, the so-called surplus grain is not panic, further increasing the difficulty of forming a consensus on market competition and cooperation.".
The above-mentioned people believe that, on the whole, although the cement market demand in Chongqing is no longer the same as in previous years, it is still relatively high. As for whether the market situation can be stable, the key is to see whether the supply side can be improved and whether the implementation of peak staggering is in place.
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