On the basis of "one city, one policy", the real estate regulation policy "one district, one policy" has come.
On April 11, the official website of the Beijing Municipal Housing and Construction Commission released the list of key tasks and progress of the work report of the Beijing Municipal Government in 2023, which proposed that "the support policy for multi-child families and job-housing balanced families to buy houses should be piloted in Fangshan District in accordance with the" one district, one policy "approach". What does
"one district, one policy" mean? Is this likely to be implemented in other cities?
Fangshan District pilot "one district, one policy"
according to official documents, this time in Fangshan District pilot "one district, one policy" is mainly aimed at multi-child families and job-housing balance family purchase support policy. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of
Central Plains Real Estate, said that this means that Fangshan District may provide some support for two-child or three-child families in terms of provident fund loans in the future, or appropriately reduce the down payment requirement for the purchase of second apartments. In addition, for families with job-housing balance, it may also give some support in terms of housing loans and lowering the threshold of house purchase. Chen Xiao, a senior analyst
at Zhuge Data Research Center, said that there had been news that "Beijing will take Fangshan as a pilot to relax the policy of recognizing housing loans". She believes that if the news is true, Fangshan District may make adjustments in the recognition of housing loans and the down payment ratio of multi-child families, such as reducing the down payment of second apartments for multi-child families and relaxing the restrictions on the number of purchases for multi-child families.
Why Fangshan District?
Fangshan District is a suburb of Beijing, and after a round of tightening policies since 2017, the property market activity in Fangshan District is not high. Chen Wenjing, Director of Market Research
of Zhongzhi Research Institute, pointed out that in the past six years, except 2021, the transaction area of commercial residential buildings in Fangshan District has been less than 500000 square meters. Among them, 434000 square meters of commercial residential buildings were sold in Fangshan District in 2022, down 48.1% from the same period last year, significantly higher than decline in Beijing (-25.1%). In the first quarter of
2023, the turnover of commercial residential buildings in Fangshan District increased year on year under the factors of low base and centralized online signature of some projects, and the market sentiment was slightly restored. However, since April, Chen Wenjing has admitted that the average daily turnover area of commercial residential buildings in Fangshan District has decreased by 46.6% compared with the average daily turnover area in mid-late March, which is higher than overall level of Beijing. The short-term inventory and clearance cycle in Fangshan District is still large. By the end of March 2023, the saleable area of commercial residential buildings was 1.032 million square meters, and the short-term inventory clearance cycle was 22.3 months (calculated according to the average monthly sales area in the past six months). Pilot supportive policies
in regions where the performance of the property market is relatively weak will help boost local market confidence, while avoiding the risk of excessive warming in hot spots. The industry believes that this is also an important reason for the policy pilot to choose Fangshan District.
Beijing real estate policy to relax?
As the capital, Beijing property market has a vane significance for the whole country. Over the years, Beijing has also been one of the most stringent housing policies in all cities of the country. Does the pilot "one district, one policy" in Fangshan District mean that Beijing and even the first-tier mega-cities will relax the property market regulation policy?
Chen Xiao believes that Fangshan pilot "one district, one policy" has indeed released a positive market signal. Although the implementation of the policy is still in a pilot way, and the specific policy adjustment has not yet been implemented, it has also brought a warm wind to the market, which means that in some areas of first-tier cities, the implementation of strict regulatory policies for many years may be expected to usher in loosening.
In addition to the "one district, one policy", Beijing has also made it clear in its progress that "the relevant departments of the full-age friendly purchase support policy are signing back, and three departments have signed back", and at the same time, it has made it clear that "it has agreed to guide the banks to handle the full-age friendly purchase credit business on three pilot project windows before the formal issuance of the document". This policy will also increase support for the housing needs of elderly families.
Last year, Taihu and Majuqiao areas in Tongzhou District of Beijing cancelled the "double purchase restriction". Shanghai proposes to optimize the policy of purchasing houses for talents in the new area of Lingang. Non-Shanghai registered talents working in Lingang New Area have paid personal income tax or social security for one year or more, and are limited to purchase one set of housing in Lingang New Area, which can be transferred after seven years of online contract filing.
Experts believe that in the future, in the periphery of first-tier cities and non-hot areas with large housing supply, there is the possibility of optimizing the purchase policy for specific groups of people, but the possibility of large-scale loosening of the real estate policy is relatively low. Due to the strong demand of the real estate market in the first-tier cities, in order to avoid large fluctuations in the market, it is expected that the follow-up real estate regulation policies in the first-tier cities will be gradually promoted. In the future, some areas of first-tier cities may also refer to the way of Fangshan District to promote policy adjustment in the form of pilot projects, so as to avoid large fluctuations in the overall urban real estate market or housing prices. Since
2023, the recovery of the real
estate market has shown signs of slowing down after the obvious Xiaoyangchun of the real estate market.
Taking Beijing as an example, Zhang Dawei pointed out that from the one-week data, the volume of real estate transactions has begun to slow down for several consecutive weeks, and the trend of continuing to rise has not appeared. The volume of second-hand housing transactions in Beijing will decline in April. Data from
the China Index Research Institute also showed that in the first quarter, the total turnover of second-hand housing in Beijing reached 47,000 units, an increase of 28.3% over the same period last year. The release of the backlog of demand in the early stage and the demand for buying houses and entering the market led to a rebound in turnover.
However, it is noteworthy that in April, the activity of new and second-hand housing transactions in Beijing declined compared with the middle and late March. According to the index data, as of April 10, the average daily turnover of commercial residential buildings in Beijing was 28,000 square meters, down 10.1% from the average daily turnover in the middle and late March; the average daily turnover of second-hand houses was 348 units, down 56.0% from the average daily turnover in the middle and late March. After the release of the backlog demand in the early stage, the pace of home buyers has slowed down.
Chen Wenjing said that Beijing's "one district, one policy" is expected to provide a reference for other hot cities, which is conducive to the further restoration of the national real estate market sentiment.
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