Glass and Real Estate: Looking at the Change of Glass Demand in the Future from Real Estate Data

1. The relationship

between glass and real estate The flat glass we use in our daily life is basically made by float process. The early glass process has undergone several changes, such as blowing process, vertical drawing process and flat drawing process, and finally formed the situation that float process is the mainstream process. Float glass has a wide range of downstream uses, but real estate is the main source of consumption, accounting for 75%, followed by automotive glass used in the automotive industry, accounting for 15%, real estate can be said to affect

2. Real estate development cycle

At present, the mainstream real estate development process of real estate developers basically follows the five basic stages of land acquisition, commencement, pre-sale, completion and acceptance. According to the different types, scales and development enterprises of real estate, a complete set of real estate development process will take 2-3 years. Due to the increasing financing pressure of real estate developers in recent years, most real estate enterprises choose to withdraw funds as quickly as possible through earlier pre-sale. Real estate developers need to give the corresponding construction project design plan after obtaining the land, and only after obtaining the construction project planning permit can they start construction, which takes about 3-6 months. According to the data, the land acquisition area is about 4 months ahead of the new construction area.

Figure 1 Correlation

between new construction area and land acquisition area

Figure 2 Correlation

between new construction area and completed area Figure 3 Correlation

between new construction area and sales area

Figure 4 Correlation between

Glass Production and Sales Figure 5 Correlation between

new construction area and glass production

Fig. 6 Correlation

between as-built data and glass production

Figure 7 Correlation

between real estate sales area and glass production In this process, many real estate enterprises are facing debt crisis, bankruptcy reorganization and other events." Enterprise funds can not support the continued construction of buildings that have been started, and the number of "uncompleted residential flats" has increased sharply. If the strict policy has poured cold water on the overheated market, the existence of "uncompleted residential flats" has undoubtedly caused a huge blow to the confidence of the real estate market. Therefore, the implementation of the policy of "guaranteeing the delivery of buildings" is to regain the lost confidence in the market, coupled with the obvious differentiation between the construction area and the completed area caused by the rapid expansion of the business model of the enterprises in the early stage, since the second half of 2021, the real estate industry has formed a situation of rapid decline in new construction and relatively strong construction and completed area. This is an important factor affecting the future demand for glass, because glass is located at the end of the real estate construction process, a large number of uncompleted areas and uncompleted buildings still retain a large demand for glass production.

Figure 8 Property Related Data

5. Summary

From the data point of view, the land acquisition area is about 4 months ahead of the new construction area, the new construction area is about 3 years ahead of the completed area, and the real estate sales area is slightly ahead of the new construction area. As far as glass is concerned, the new construction area is 3 years ahead of the glass production, which is shortened to 28 months after 2017. Glass production is about 8 months ahead of the completed area, after 2017, the correlation increases, glass production and sales area are synchronous indicators, so it is theoretically feasible to roughly predict glass demand through the new construction area, supplemented by real-time adjustment of real estate sales area, from the logic of new construction, before the fourth quarter of this year. With the centralized completion of a large number of construction areas, the demand for glass is more likely to continue to be better. After the fourth quarter, with the reduction of real estate projects, the support of rigid demand will gradually collapse, and glass may enter a downward cycle of more than one year.