On August 1, the National Monitoring and Early Warning Center for New Energy Consumption announced the situation of grid-connected consumption of new energy in June.
Overall, by the end of June, the utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation in China was 98.2%, and that of wind power was 96.
However, from the perspective of various regions, there are several places that seem to be unsatisfactory. Among them, Xizang and Qinghai are 75.5% and 92.
Why abandon the wind and light? Taking Henan as an example, in April 2023, the Henan Development and Reform Commission pointed out in the 14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of New and Renewable Energy in Henan Province that the situation of local market absorption is becoming increasingly severe.
As a major energy input province, Henan's renewable energy consumption depends on the local market, and only in the first half of 2023, Henan added 7.443 million kilowatts of grid-connected capacity, almost 774 kilowatts in the whole year of 2022. The newly installed capacity in Henan Province increased by 103.3% and 139 compared with the same period last year.
According to China Power Network, one city in Henan Province has experienced the situation of reverse transmission to 500 kilovolt voltage level at the peak.
By the end of June 2023, Shandong's cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity and distributed photovoltaic installed capacity were the first in the country. Xu Qingxiang, deputy director of
Shandong Dezhou Development and Reform Commission, said in June that in recent years, the development momentum of new energy in Dezhou has been advancing rapidly, the installed capacity and power generation have doubled year by year, the growth of power load and the carrying capacity of power grid are limited. There is an objective risk of exceeding the absorptive capacity of the power system and reverse power transmission from distributed power to 220 kV voltage level (not meeting the requirements of national guidelines). To put
it bluntly, the problem of absorption has gradually become a stumbling block to the development of new energy sources such as photovoltaics.
normal, As a system
that needs to maintain instantaneous balance, the power system generally generates as much electricity as it needs, that is, "the source moves with the load". But in fact , the demand for electricity load is very difficult to plan and make rigid regulations, and the demand is always changing . For example, in May this year, due to the oversupply of electricity caused by the May Day holiday, Shandong experienced the longest period of negative electricity prices in history. And the more you use, the more you earn.
So the question is, why is the consumption problem particularly serious today in the 141-year history of large-scale power consumption?
This is stability, strong stability and strong dispatch, so that power plants can arrange power generation according to market demand.
But this kind of stability has been shaken in recent years with the continuous strengthening of the sense of existence of new energy power generation.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 2023 alone, China's new photovoltaic grid-connected capacity reached 78.
In the Guiding Opinions on Energy Work in 2023, the State Energy Administration put forward that the proportion of non-fossil energy installed power generation will increase to about 51.9% this year, the proportion of wind power and photovoltaic power generation in the total electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 15.3%, and the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power generation will increase by 1.
It sounds good that wind and solar power will be cleaner. Sustainability and environmental friendliness are also in line with the trend of social development, but on the power line, many families are happy, one is sad, and they cry to death at the end of the road.
Let me give you a simple example : Suppose that the electricity consumption in the afternoon in a city normally fluctuates within the range of A. The power distribution of the city is: 60% thermal power, 20% photovoltaic power and 20% wind power. Under
normal circumstances, each part of the power generation will be consumed by users immediately after entering the grid, but because of uncertainty, if it is cloudy today and the wind power is insufficient, the 40% power gap caused by photovoltaic and wind power will be difficult to be made up by thermal power with more stability and less mobility.
On the contrary, if one day, the wind is just right and the light is strong, the wind and scenery that should generate 40% of the electricity will soar to 50%, and in the case of insufficient power supply that can be flexibly allocated, not only will the extra 10% of the electricity be wasted, but also the extra power will suddenly pour into the power grid. It will bring many risks to the local power grid, such as system power imbalance, line overload, node voltage overrun, and bring great challenges to the operation and stable power supply of the power grid.
Therefore, the basic disk with less power supply that can be flexibly adjusted with the fluctuation of new energy will determine that the development of new energy will be subject to end consumption for a long time in the future.
Wind and solar distribution and storage, negative electricity price … It is not allowed to "lift the table"
sooner or later in the market, which is essentially to find people to use electricity and try not to waste it. What needs to be solved is the problem of insufficient electricity and excessive electricity- peak shaving and valley filling .
For the city in the above example, can't we send the extra electricity to other places or send it from other places? There is a long-standing problem in
China's electricity market that the power generation market and the consumer market are separated
, that is, the source and load are mismatched in time and space, and the people who use electricity are concentrated in the eastern developed areas. Large power generators are mainly in the west, such as the large wind and solar base projects promoted by the state in recent years, which are basically distributed in the northwest of Inner Mongolia and Gansu. Power connections across more than half of China depend on UHV transportation, which can only rely on national construction, so the progress will certainly not catch up with the growth rate of wind and wind installed capacity under the market-oriented development.
normal, As a system Let me give you a simple example : Suppose that the electricity consumption in the afternoon in a city normally fluctuates within the range of A. The power distribution of the city is: 60% thermal power, 20% photovoltaic power and 20% wind power. Under 
From 2017 to 2023, with the accelerated accumulation of wind and solar installed capacity, the urgency of allocation and storage can not afford to wait. An inappropriate description has now reached the level of "exasperation".
In the early stage, the policy of 2021 was only encouragement and guidance, and then it gradually developed into grid-connected standard configuration, and even some places said that no construction would be fined; the proportion of allocation and storage also increased from 10% -20% to 15% -30%, and the duration increased from 1-2h to 4-5h. According to incomplete statistics, up to now, more than 24 provinces have required compulsory storage.
But good intentions also need time to brew before they bear fruit, and now they are in a state of chaos.
"Due to the lack of reasonable dispatching mechanism and electricity price dredging mechanism, the compulsory allocation and storage of new energy is not economical." Liu Yong, Secretary-General of Energy Storage Application Branch of China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, pointed out the current dilemma.
Without economic effect, commercialization is out of the question, compulsory storage will only increase the construction cost of terminal power station enterprises, and it is extremely uneconomical for each power station to be equipped with an energy storage station.
According to the previous data of China Electricity Union, the average operation coefficient of new energy distribution and storage on the power supply side in 2022 is only 0.06, that is, only 1 per day.
The key is that the cost is not cheap. According to the current common configuration, 20% of the installed capacity and 2 hours of energy storage projects, for photovoltaic power plants, the initial investment will increase by 8% -10%, and for wind power plants, it will be higher, to 15% -20%.
This requires a lot of money, enterprises vote with their feet, and no one is happy.
"Balancing power surplus and shortage should be optimized by the power grid, and it is not scientific to balance by individuals or individual power stations," Liu Hanyuan, deputy to the National People's Congress, vice-chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce and chairman of the board of directors of Tongwei Group, explained to the media.
Since there is still a long way to go for energy storage to play its normal value, who can come to the top at this moment? Ccement. Com/richtext/IMG/dww2qtwsht1691024261917.
Earlier, we mentioned the negative electricity price in Shandong, and the power generation enterprises send electricity and money, which is actually the result of the current market-oriented reform of electricity trading. To a certain extent, the market-oriented reform of electricity trading promotes the improvement of the level of consumption. In the market of electricity trading in
a region, because the population of electricity consumption in the region is basically fixed, the upper limit of electricity consumption is fixed. But in fact, whether enterprises and residents use electricity or not will fluctuate with holidays, economy and other factors.
With the increase of photovoltaic grid-connected, after the supply exceeds the demand, power generation enterprises are constrained by many factors, such as shutdown costs, contract provisions and so on, so they can only continuously reduce prices in the market to stimulate users to buy electricity until all the electricity generated is sold out. In order to sell out the electricity, zero or negative is possible in the process of continuous price reduction.
In this way, if enterprises do not want to lose money, they must take the initiative to solve the problem, allocate and store or adapt to the market regulation mechanism to achieve a local installed capacity, and achieve a dynamic balance with the local power grid within a reasonable range.
Of course, the practice of stimulating the level of consumption through negative electricity prices is effective in a short time, but in the long run, it is not so.
At present, the reform of the electricity market is still continuing, far from the end, but before all the above methods play a role, the local power grid can not afford to wait.
For this reason, local governments have once again toughened their scalps as "villains".
July, Liaoning Yingkou directly issued a document to suspend local distributed filing.
……
In the future, before the problem of absorption is reasonably solved, there will only be more and more areas to limit the installed capacity of photovoltaic from the source.
However, the practice of "one size fits all" in the name of goodness is ultimately contrary to the operation law of the market itself, and it is not a good policy in the long run.
In this multi-party game, no one can stay out of the source, network, load and storage, and no one can be a hero, so we should build a pluralistic, scientific and reasonable absorption mechanism, supporting standardized absorption policies, and cooperating with market mechanism regulation. It is a long-term strategy to jointly promote the establishment of an integrated cycle of " source-network-load-storage".
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