According to Chinese customs data, China exported 18.08 GW of PV modules in June, a slight decrease of 5% compared with 18.99 GW in May. In the first half of 2023, a total of 106.1 GW exports were accumulated, an increase of 35% compared with 78.7 GW in the same period last year, indicating a rapid growth in overseas markets in the first half of the year.
European market
Europe is the main export market for Chinese modules. In June, China imported about 10.5 GW of PV modules, up 16% year-on-year and down about 12% month-on-month. Cumulative imports from China in the first half of the year were 62.4 GW, an increase of about 47% over the first half of last year.
In the first quarter, the European market performed better than expected, and the growth between quarters was relatively flat. The second and third quarters were supposed to be the peak season for the European market, and the second quarter usually increased significantly compared with the first quarter. However, QoQ in the second quarter of this year was only 11.53%, which was significantly lower than 54% in the second quarter of last year. The reason may be that the large number of goods pulled in the first quarter caused high inventory piles, and the installation speed of European countries did not increase significantly, resulting in relatively weak demand in the second quarter.
Looking forward to the third quarter, due to the July-August holiday factor, the current state of assessment of the pull force is only slightly lower, in the absence of a significant increase in installation speed, it is expected that inventory will continue to affect demand. In the second half of the year, the price of European components still shows a downward trend, which is not only affected by the supply chain price, but also shows that the short-term demand is relatively weak. Considering the above factors, it is expected that the European market demand in the third quarter will be flat in the second quarter, or even have the opportunity to decline slightly.
The Asia-Pacific
market imported about 3.4 GW of Chinese PV modules in June, up 34% month-on-month and 24% from June last year. In the first half of the year, the Asia-Pacific market imported 18.6 GW photovoltaic modules from China, a slight decrease of 2% compared with the same period last year.
Asia-Pacific regional observation shows that China's export module market is mainly Australia and Japan, which imported about 650 MW and 620 MW Chinese PV modules in June respectively. Both countries are countries with relatively mature photovoltaic development. In addition to relatively stable changes in demand, policy subsidies have also shifted to distributed photovoltaic, which is mainly for household use and industry and commerce. Although the decline in module prices this year is conducive to pulling goods, the actual installed demand still needs to observe the policy and economic situation, and the annual demand is conservative. China's module demand
in India this month is about 300 MW, with a slight month-on-month increase, but the overall module volume in the second quarter is slightly lower than that in the first quarter due to the impact of fiscal year settlement in the first quarter. In addition to components, India's demand for batteries has also increased significantly this year, rapidly jumping to the third largest importer of batteries in addition to China, indicating that the local manufacturing mode has gradually shifted from direct import of components to batteries with lower tariffs, and components are made locally to meet project demand.
The American market
imported about 1.9 GW of Chinese PV modules in June, with a significant month-on-month decline of 19%, of which the largest decline came from Chile, presumably due to the large fluctuations in the process of large-scale projects. Brazil, the largest demand country in the
American market, imported about 1.2 GW of Chinese PV modules this month, with a slight decrease of 7% month-on-month. In the first half of the year, Brazil imported about 9.1 GW of Chinese PV modules, with a slight increase compared with the same period last year. Since the first quarter of this year, the
Brazilian market has shown a continuous downward trend. In addition to the inventory impact caused by a large amount of hoarding since the first quarter of last year, it also shows that the rush to install caused by the new power framework on the road this year has gradually receded, and the driving factors of the Brazilian market have gradually returned to the long-term potential demand. In addition to Brazil, Chile's large-scale ground projects grew significantly this year, with imports of photovoltaic modules reaching 2.16 GW in the first half of the year, an increase of 72% compared with the same period last year, making it one of the emerging markets with significant growth this year.
Middle East and Africa
The Middle East market imported approximately 1.3 GW of PV modules from China in June, representing a month-on-month increase of 26%. In the first half of the year, the cumulative import of PV modules from China reached 5.9 GW, representing an increase of approximately 60% compared with the same period last year. The growth of
the Middle East market this year is mainly from Saudi Arabia. This month, the import of Chinese PV modules reached 791 MW, an increase of 48% month-on-month. In the first half of the year, the cumulative import of Chinese PV modules reached 2.6 GW, an increase of more than 7 times compared with the same period last year, which is one of the fastest growing emerging markets.
Saudi Arabia's demand mainly comes from large-scale ground projects, and the monthly import changes are affected by the project delivery schedule, and the off-peak season is relatively not obvious. It is expected that Saudi Arabia will maintain a strong demand for components in the second half of the year driven by the project.
The African market
imported about 1 GW photovoltaic modules from China in June, down 15% month-on-month, with fluctuations mainly from South Africa. As a key PV market in Africa, South Africa imported about 520 MW PV modules in June, a decrease of nearly 40% compared with May; the cumulative import of PV modules from China this year has reached 3.2 GW.
South Africa's photovoltaic demand has grown rapidly this year, mainly due to long-term intermittent power rationing, which has led the government and local residents to turn to household photovoltaics to make up for the power gap. Not only has the government offered high tax relief for photovoltaic installation, but the local power minister has also personally visited China to seek help in solving the energy crisis, although it is a big boost to South Africa's photovoltaic demand. However, the actual installation capacity and the perfection of power grid facilities are important problems that must be overcome in the short term.
Overseas regional markets showed mixed ups and downs in June. Looking at the quarterly change, the growth rate in the first quarter of this year was 37% compared with the same period last year, while the growth rate in the second quarter was 33%; the annual growth in the second quarter was slightly lower than that in the first quarter, indicating that the overseas inventory problem and the unexpected delivery in the first quarter had an impact on the growth in the second quarter.
Looking forward to the third quarter, although the low price of components is beneficial to the growth of demand, the speed of overseas installation has not increased significantly, and the inventory problem will still affect the momentum of pulling goods in the second half of the year. It is expected that the third quarter of Europe, Brazil and other markets will be flat or even decline in the second quarter due to the inventory problem, which will affect the total global demand.
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