Photovoltaic glass giant Follett 's revenue performance in 2022 was very impressive. In 2022, the company's photovoltaic glass sales increased by 92.58% year-on-year to 524 million square meters, achieving annual revenue of 15.46 billion yuan.
However, compared with the bright revenue, the net profit of Flat in 2022 was 2.122 billion yuan, an increase of only 0.13%, and the net cash flow from operating activities was 177 million yuan, a decrease of 69.49%; Revenue and profit were 2.155 billion, down 9 from the same period last year.
Coincidentally, Xinyi Optical Energy, which is also the industry leader, will also have a hard time in 2022. In the whole year of 2022, the Group achieved a revenue of HK $205.44, an increase of 27. However, the comprehensive gross profit rate dropped to 30% (43.8% in 2021), and the gross profit fell by 12.6% to 61.
Who "takes" the profits of the industry giants? databm.com/photovoltaic/" target="_blank" style="color: #4284f4; text-decoration: underline; "Data-word =" "> The PV industry is still expanding at a high speed. According to the statistics of the National Energy Administration, the newly installed PV capacity in China in 2022 is 87.41 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 59. The newly installed capacity in the EU in 2022 is expected to exceed 40 GW, with a year-on-year growth of more than 50%. Behind the
industry scenery, as an indispensable part of the photovoltaic supply chain, photovoltaic glass does not seem to have taken the "east wind" of the industry. The average price of 2.0mm and 3.2mm photovoltaic glass in China
in 2022 is 20.8 yuan per square meter and 27 yuan per square meter respectively. But in the last round of upward cycle of photovoltaic glass, it decreased by 11.9% and 6. 2.0mm、 3.2mm thickness
Year (yuan/m2)
Source: DataBM. Since the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the revised According to the Measures for the Implementation of Capacity Replacement in the Cement Glass Industry, the photovoltaic glass industry has entered a new cycle of rapid expansion of production capacity after the new photovoltaic glass projects no longer require capacity replacement. According to the data released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by the end of 2022, there were 40 photovoltaic rolled glass production enterprises in China, with a total of 128 kilns and 442 production lines, with a capacity of 8.
In addition, according to DataBM, the
gradual surplus supply of digital building materials has alleviated the situation of "one glass is hard to find". It also promotes the price of photovoltaic glass to fall, but the sustained and rapid growth of production capacity has also brought new "problems" to the industry, and the continuous release of production capacity has caused the current low price to hover.
In the future, the indigestible inventory may become the "maggots of bones" that are difficult to eradicate in the photovoltaic glass industry.
2018-2023 National PV Glass Production Capacity and Year-on-year Growth
Source: China Post Securities
(T/D,%) 2018-2023 National PV Newly Installed Capacity and Year-on-year Growth (GW,%) %)
Not the most expensive, only more expensive, compared to soda ash roller-coaster price increases, natural gas prices are even more exaggerated. In 2021, the price of domestic natural gas was still fluctuating within 3000-5000 yuan/ton, while in 2022, the price range jumped to 6000-8000 yuan/ton.
Compared with the unreasonable increase in the price of soda ash and natural gas, the price of quartz sand has also risen with the tight supply in recent years.
According to the Explanation on the Price of Low-iron Quartz Raw Ore from 2017 to 2021 issued by Anhui Glass Industry Association, through the market research on the local quartzite raw ore in Anhui, the average price of quartzite raw ore including tax has increased from 95 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton in the past five years, with a compound increase of 20%. 2020-
2023 LNG Market Price (RMB/ton)
Source: China Post Securities
2020-2023 Petroleum Coke Market Price (RMB/ton)
Source: China Post Securities Under the influence of multiple cost factors In 2022, the cost of all kinds of flat glass products increased, and the cost of photovoltaic glass, household glass, engineering glass and float glass increased by 129.11%, 8.83%, 7.39% and 67% respectively.
The increase in product prices is limited, and the gross profit margin of solar glass manufacturers is under pressure, because the increase in costs may not be passed on to the customers or end-users of solar glass products. Xinyi Light Energy also said.
Under the double pressure of falling prices and soaring costs, the average price of Follett in 2022 fell by 0.24% to 26.83 yuan per square meter compared with the same period last year. In 2022, the gross profit of Xinyi Solar in photovoltaic glass panels also decreased by 13.4 percentage points to 23.
Therefore, even if enterprises sell more photovoltaic glass in 2022, their profits may not increase year-on-year.
Faced with the embarrassing dilemma of increasing income without increasing profits, how to break the situation in the limited profit level will be the difficulty that the whole industry of photovoltaic glass needs to break through urgently in 2023.
To this end, the industry leader Flat and Xinyi Optical Energy are making two-handed plans.
quartz sand, from 2021 to 2022, Flat acquired all the shares of Sanli Mining and Dahua Mining successively, and in August last year, the distribution of quartz sand with RMB 33.
After winning the mining right of a quartz sand mine in Beihai, Guangxi in 2020, it successively guaranteed the supply of silica sand by participating in Beihai Yiyang Mining, Dongyuan Xinhuali and Hepu Xinyi Mining. It was not until February this year that it released the news that it planned to invest 3 billion yuan in Indonesia's silica sand project.In terms of
fuel, as early as 2020, Follett invested in Fengyang PetroChina Kunlun Gas Co., Ltd. and Jiaxing Gas Group Co., Ltd. and acquired 35% and 4% of the two companies respectively.
The contract period between each production base and the local supplier is between 10 and 20 years, and the gas pipeline of the supplier is connected to each production base to obtain stable supply.
2.
By the end of March 2023, the production capacity of Flat will reach 20600 tons per day. Meanwhile, it is planned to invest four kilns of 1200 tons per day in Anhui this year, and the fifth phase of the project is also under examination and approval. It is expected that the production capacity of the company will reach 25400 tons per day in 2023, with an increase of 23%. Looking at the light energy of Xinyi
again, it is also not far behind. By the end of 2022, the daily melting capacity of Xinyi PV glass was 19,800 tons, an increase of 7,800 tons from the beginning of the year. Xinyi Solar aims to add seven new PV glass production lines with a total daily melting capacity of 7,000 tons this year, so as to increase its total daily melting capacity of PV glass to 26800 tons by the end of 2023. With the enhancement of
cost control ability and the expansion of production capacity, it is expected that in 2023, the profit dilemma of Flat and Xinyi Solar Energy will be alleviated, and the market share will be further increased.
this year, the first phase of Xinyi Crystal Silicon Project was officially started in Qujing, Yunnan Province. It is planned to build a production line with an annual output of 60000 tons of electronic grade polysilicon and 10000 tons of white carbon black, with a total investment of 6 billion yuan. It is expected to be completed and put into operation within this year. The development of
polysilicon business makes full use of the advantages of Xinyi Light Energy's heavy capital model, and forms a dislocation competition pattern with the company's existing customers, which is expected to become a new revenue and profit growth point in the company's follow-up.
Unlike Xinyi Solar, which has a share of the existing industrial structure, Follett has turned its attention to the cadmium telluride thin film solar cell business, which is "promising but considered to be still in its infancy". At the end of February this year, Flat announced that it would invest 3 billion yuan to build a 1G W cadmium telluride thin film solar cell project, with an estimated annual output value of 3 billion yuan.
In order to seek sustained growth, from cost control to new market expansion, as the "duopoly" of the industry, Xinyi Light Energy and Flat's active exploration in the development of enterprises is not only a microcosm of the industry, but also a model for other enterprises.
Enterprise development is like sailing against the current, not to advance is to fall behind, in the continuous progress, find problems, adjust the direction, in order to achieve "ten thousand years ship".
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