"Searching, desolate and miserable." A cement enterprise in Shandong quoted Li Qingzhao's "Sound Slow" to describe today's cement market. According to the Top 100 Clinker List of
cement prices did not occur until the industry entered the off-season recently. According to the feedback from a local cement enterprise, as early as July 2022, the price of cement in Shandong has been falling all the way to more than 200 yuan/ton today. "Last year, the profit in April alone exceeded 100 million, and in the first half of this year, we can only maintain no loss." The person in charge of the above enterprises sighed. Now such an earth-shaking change is unexpected for most Shandong cement enterprises.
There is a view that this year's cement market will return to 2015, but compared with 2015, this year's real estate has been in a downward stage, has not yet bottomed out, enterprises have no confidence in the development of real estate, and naturally lack confidence in cement demand. You know, for the industry, confidence is more important than gold, and this year's market may not be as good as 2015.
Losses spread throughout the Shandong cement market. On July 19, Shanshui Cement issued a profit warning that the net loss of the group in the first half of this year was about 2.15-2. Not only cement enterprises, but also grinding enterprises in Shandong Province made little money. The momentum of
losses even continued into July. It is reported that in July, the price of coal in Shandong has risen by 50 yuan per ton, and the price of coal entering the factory has reached about 950 yuan per ton, while the price of cement has further declined, and the profits of enterprises have been compressed. Industry insiders expect that cement enterprises in Shandong will probably be in a state of loss in July this year. Serious over
capacity, the past model has become "yesterday's yellow flower"
, "before the overcapacity is about 40%, now almost 60%." A market enterprise in Shandong said. Overcapacity has become a chronic disease in the cement industry, which has not been cured for a long time, and even has a growing trend.
In the past few years, under the influence of supply-side structural reform, the industry has maintained a good profit trend, and people have formed an illusion that the industry can maintain a good development trend by relying on supply-side reform means such as peak staggering production and capacity replacement. Now it seems that the "strong medicine" of
peak staggering production is only a temporary solution, which only solves the problem of production, but can not cure the problem of production capacity. In addition, only relying on the self-discipline of enterprises to stop kilns at the wrong peak, there has been an unfair situation, resulting in a decline in trust among enterprises. "Last year, we stopped production for more than 200 days, but some enterprises stopped production for less than 100 days." A local enterprise said.
In addition, the problem of overproduction is becoming more and more serious. In recent years, the phenomenon of "increasing production and transformation" and the expansion of clinker storage has sprung up in the cement industry, and enterprises have increased their efforts to increase production and transformation, resulting in serious overproduction, and the actual capacity is far greater than design capacity. "Some 4000t/d production lines can reach 6000-7000t/d after technical transformation." A local enterprise said. The situation of overcapacity has not been substantially promoted, but has been aggravated by the serious overproduction.
Faced with the above situation, some insiders said that if cement enterprises want to survive, they must be hard-hearted to solve the problem of overcapacity. During the downturn of the cement industry, the "rotten meat" of overcapacity, which affects the development of the industry, should be cut off.
The past pattern has become "yesterday's yellow flower". Overcapacity is serious, cement market is not good, facing the severe market situation, industry insiders believe that on the one hand, it is affected by insufficient demand, on the other hand, the relationship between enterprises is broken, and the cement industry ecosystem is damaged.
"Loose sand" is not conducive to the healthy and long-term development of the industry, the industry is in a downward cycle, the relevant people call on enterprises to maintain rationality, mutual understanding, common development, and hope that large enterprises play a leading role, we work together to tide over the difficulties.
At the same time, there is a practical problem that can not be ignored, and large enterprises also need to survive. In this special period, can enterprises afford to lose their market share? The competition and cooperation relationship between enterprises is not as strong as before.
This year's cement market may be the best year
in the next decade. Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics released data on industrial production and operation in the first half of 2023. Among the major industrial products, in June, the cement output reached 185.03 million tons, down 1.5% from the same period last year; from January to June, the cement output was 953 million tons, up from the same period last year. 1. According to the statistics of China Cement Net · Cement Big Data Research Institute, the cement output in the first half of this year has reached the lowest level in nearly 11 years. Some market participants believe that this year's cement market is the worst year in the past ten years, and perhaps the best year in the next ten years.
However, in the long run, a person in charge of an enterprise in Shandong Province said that the building materials industry will develop in an "L" shape in the future, and the current development of the industry has not yet bottomed out and is still in the downward stage.
"This first, how a worry word!"! Instead of passively waiting for the industry to get better, it is better to take the initiative to attack, enhance their competitiveness, and "survive" in the current severe market environment.
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