American think tank, has released its latest report on the global renewable energy market. The report shows that from the first quarter to the second quarter of this year, the average price of power purchase agreements (PPA) in Europe and the United States has declined. The authors of the
report point out that the cost of solar supply chains and products needed for renewable energy generation in these regions is still a concern. Nevertheless, they are generally positive about the impact of falling electricity prices and how power purchase agreements are more attractive to potential generators and buyers in the long term. Discussing the US PPA market, the
report authors wrote: Project developers are beginning to understand more clearly how to qualify for tax breaks, allowing them to revise their assumptions about costs to meet these requirements, giving renewable energy buyers more confidence in future PPA prices. "
The price of 4.4MW solar projects
in San Antonio, Texas, fell, and the U.S. Confidence Shake
report showed that the median U.S. PPA price fell by 3% in the second quarter of 2023, equivalent to a decline of $2 to $59.". Edison believes this is due to a 30% increase in the size of the project portfolio owned by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates 90% of the Texas power grid and has a significant impact on the entire U.S. power infrastructure. Among the U.S. power companies covered in the
report, ERCOT also had the lowest median PPA price in the second quarter of this year, with an average price of $53.75 per MWh. Power company PJM, which represents several eastern States such as Indiana and Kentucky, reported the highest average PPA price of $72.46/MWh. The lower price of solar in Texas will encourage generators and ERCOT to be more proactive in the market and increase the portfolio of power companies.
California Independent System Operator (gray), ERCOT (blue), Midcontinent ISO (yellow), PPA
prices for PJM (green) and Southwest Power Pool (red) Although solar and wind PPA prices have increased over the past three years, for all five major U.S. power companies profiled in the report, the report draws a positive conclusion from the slowdown in the rate of increase in these prices. Edison researchers pointed out that the latest round of prices "indicates that the market has eased, especially after the sharp rise from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the first quarter of 2023.".
Edison researchers wrote in the report: Some of the REDD projects that were criticised by the Guardian earlier this year are trading at record low levels, and they acknowledge that confidence in some renewable energy generation projects in the US has been shaken. Despite these setbacks, developers remain optimistic as climate commitments for 2025 and 2030 are approaching and demand is expected to grow. "
PPA price indices
for Poland (red), the Netherlands (green), Germany (blue), Italy (purple), the EU (grey) and Spain (yellow) Europe's high divergence and high demand
Edison report shows." European PPA prices have been far more volatile than those in the US. In terms of trend, prices have generally declined since the previous quarter.
The EU PPA price index fell from about 88 euros/MWh ( $97.15/MWh) in the first quarter of this year to about 82 euros/MWh in the second quarter, indicating that the average price of PPA in Europe is declining, but has not yet reached the level of the United States.
Among them, Poland has the highest average PPA price of 110 euros/MWh, which is consistent with the first quarter of 2023, and Poland is the only country to maintain the same price in both quarters of this year.
Spain's price is about 49 euros/MWh, which is the lowest among the countries surveyed. The most significant change was in the Netherlands, where the average PPA price jumped from 81 euros/MWh to 90 euros/MWh, surpassing the EU PPA price index for the first time since the third quarter of 2022. While the impact of this fluctuation is not yet clear, Edison researchers expect this trend to continue, with more PPA activity in the coming years. "After a year of political and price uncertainty, corporate interest continues to grow, and current pricing and risk are more palatable to buyers than in the second half of 2022," the
researchers wrote in the report. "
" PPA activity will be further boosted as PPA's share of decarbonisation efforts increases and buyers move closer to major corporate sustainability milestones in 2025 and 2030. "
The authors of the report also point out that the number of applications for solar projects across Europe is insufficient, and many governments have not approved all the solar tender capacity they provide.". In 2022, Germany approved 2.9 GW of solar tender capacity, while solar capacity offered was 4.8 G W; the Italian government approved 1.7 GW and offered 3.4 GW of renewable energy capacity.
"However, we expect this trend to reverse in the medium to long term.". In response to the urgent need to strengthen government tendering and meet renewable energy targets, the EU and other forums are actively planning CFD reforms to make tendering more attractive. "