高毛利时代或将过去!砂石行业运行及展望

2023-04-03 09:13:40

根据水泥、混凝土的需求预期,预计2023年全国砂石骨料需求同比偏稳运行,或有小幅下滑。在供需反向变动的预期下,长期价格进入下行区间,预计2023年砂石价格中枢仍将小幅下移。

2022年,新版《建设用砂》和《建设用卵石、碎石》国家标准实施,各省市矿产资源规划也相继出台,2023年全国砂石行业形势又将如何发展呢?近日,中国水泥网·水泥大数据研究院高级分析师祝萧芸在中国水泥网举办的“2023中国水泥产业峰会”上,详细分析了2022年砂石行业运行,并对2023年全年发展态势进行展望。

一、沿江沿海以跌为主,2022年全年需求降幅明显

图片来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

截至12月底,全国碎石价格指数报收88.07点,同比下降9.07%。全国机制砂价格指数报收94.38点,同比下降7.49%。从机制砂均价来看,2022年砂石价格整体呈弱势下跌趋势,二季度中下旬后价格行情明显走弱,4-10月的月均机制砂价格指数同比跌幅持续扩大,四季度后价格反弹力度并不大。

北方重点市场表现一般,10月起就有部分区域出现需求收尾,年内重点城市价格趋弱运行;沿江沿海价格以跌为主,长江流域跌幅明显。继上半年需求不佳后,下半年旺季迟迟未至,年内长珠三角砂石价格趋弱运行,直至10月后砂石需求才有较为明显的回升,下半年江浙沪皖等地机制中砂价格普遍低于往年同期。长江流域的湖北、安徽、重庆以及沿海的广西跌幅较明显,其中重庆跌幅近30%。

究其原因,需求不佳、新增产能过多是关键。

图片来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

全国需求降幅较大,长江中下游下滑明显。2022年全国混凝土、水泥制品及类似制品使用的砂石骨料同比降幅达到10%左右。据上海砂石协会发布的2022年度上海市建设用砂石市场报告,2022年上海市建设砂石用量同比下降超20%。

产能扎堆释放,中南、华东受冲击较大。据统计,1-12月全国共有至少73条骨料生产线投产,新增年产能超4.4亿吨。其中年产超过1000万吨的生产线至少15条,其中8条位于中南大区,中南、华东、西南新增产能占9成以上。湖北、重庆、河南是新增产能最多的三个省市,仅湖北就新增1亿吨以上的产能。

图片来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

近年来长江中下游城市的砂石骨料需求趋于平稳,2015年后江浙沪皖地区的砂石骨料需求量围绕34亿吨均线上下震荡,长三角地区需求进入存量市场。但是,2017年至2022年,除青海西藏外,长江流域省市(含浙江)每年投放的砂石骨料产能翻了三倍。长江流域面临供给过剩危机,长期价格或进入下行区间。

二、单个矿权平均资源储量增加,广东成出让总储量最大的省份

图片来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

2022年矿权出让呈现数量减少,储量增长的特点。据目前已公布的矿权成交结果来看,2022年共有774宗型砂石矿权成交,同比减少12%,共计出让资源储量243.7亿吨,同比增长超40%。中南地区是出让矿权资源储量最高的区域,占全国出让资源储量的六成以上,同比增长超150%。

图片来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

中南地区平均出让资源储量和大型矿权交易数量增长较快。2022年中南地区的单个矿权的平均出让资源储量近1亿吨,同比增加超60%。另外,2022年至少有185宗大型矿权(成交额超过5000万元或资源储量超过5000万吨)成交,较2021年增长18.59%。2022年中南地区大型矿权交易数量较21年几乎翻倍,抵消了华东、西南大矿数量减少带来的影响。

图片来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

矿权单价整体下降。全国砂石矿权平均成交价格约4元/吨,同比下滑约20%,其中华东矿权交易单价下滑最为明显。各省出让的砂石矿单价差距有所缩小。浙江及辽宁是矿权单价最高和最低的省份。具体而言,浙江的交易单价由上半年的30元/吨以上降至20元/吨以下,进一步拉低了华东地区整体的矿权交易单价。

图片来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

2022年长江流域及长三角出让矿权的位置结构出现变化,2022年长三角的江浙皖地区出让资源储量占比不足20%,较2021年降幅明显。具体而言,湖北出让资源储量增长迅速,长江沿线的矿权出让重心向长江中游转移。

图片来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

广东出让资源储量最大,其中五成归入中国电建。2022年沿海的矿权交易规模较大,其中广东是出让资源储量最大的省份,同比增长超300%,达到50亿吨以上。具体而言,2022年中国电建在广东动作频频,其所拿矿权的资源储量达到广东出让资源储量的五成。

三、砂石行业后市展望

图片来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

《建设用砂》(GB/T14684-2022)和《建设用卵石、碎石》(GB/T 14685-2022)国家标准于2022年11月1日起实施,加强了与下游产品的标准联动,保障行业高质量发展。与此同时,各省市矿产资源规划相继出台,将继续提高大中型矿山比例。

图片来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

供给端仍未降温。据统计,2022年全国砂石骨料拟建项目超300个,总产能超过12亿吨。2022年新增的拟建项目主要分布于中南和华东地区,中南地区拥有约五成产能。其中沿江的安徽、湖北,以及沿海的广东拟建产能遥遥领先。

据2022年砂石矿权出让情况,中南地区出让资源储量及矿权生产规模一骑绝尘,预计2023年中南大区仍将是砂石骨料项目最活跃的区域,广东、湖北等地的待释放产能仍将加速增长。

图片来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

预计2023年需求偏稳运行,二季度后需求或有所反弹。根据水泥、混凝土的需求预期,预计2023年全国砂石骨料需求同比偏稳运行,或有小幅下滑。在供需反向变动的预期下,长期价格进入下行区间,预计2023年砂石价格中枢仍将小幅下移。

结合以上情况,祝萧芸提出了三点建议:

1、产能过剩问题日益严峻,对于沿江沿海的热门地区,企业拿矿更应谨慎。

2、价格进入下行区间,高毛利时代或将过去,成本端控制应得到更多重视。

3、尽管基建端砂石需求仍保持较强势头,但诸多基建项目采用自有砂石,该部分需求对市场难有提振作用,砂石生产企业应冷静看待砂石需求的恢复。

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Correlation

Recently, the Hubei Provincial Economic and Credit Office issued the Announcement on the List of Cement Clinker Production Lines and Enterprises with Production Time Calculated by 330 Days and 270 Days, which shows that the annual production days of the 4500t/d new dry cement clinker production line (second line) of Huaxin Cement (Daye) Co., Ltd. are 330 days, and the annual production days of the second line of Huaxin Cement (Daye) Co., Ltd. It is also the only clinker line in Hubei Province whose annual production days are calculated according to 330 days.

2025-04-03 17:11:51

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2025-04-03 17:07:31

Northwest China's Commercial Mixed Market Demand Is Stable and Weak..

2025-04-03 17:02:53

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2025-04-03 16:49:20

Southwest concrete market is weak and stable

2025-04-03 16:36:44

The concrete market in East China has risen slightly.

2025-04-03 16:36:12

Weak Concrete Market in Northeast China

2025-04-03 16:32:13

According to the requirements of the Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement of Cement Glass Industry (2024 edition), after on-site verification by experts, a 1000t/d new dry process cement clinker production line used by Hebei Wushan Cement Co., Ltd. for capacity utilization of 3000t/d new dry process cement clinker production line has been completely dismantled in place and does not have the ability to restore production capacity; The original rotary kiln of a 2000t/d new dry process cement clinker production line has been dismantled and upgraded to a 3000t/d new dry process cement clinker production line (Φ4.3 × 60m rotary kiln).

2025-04-03 16:30:03

On April 2, the Emergency Management Department of Anhui Province issued a circular on the cancellation of safety production licenses for 27 non-coal mining enterprises such as Laoshan Sandstone Mine of Anhui Chizhou Conch Cement Co., Ltd.

2025-04-03 16:29:49

The price of mixed commodities in central and southern China fluctuates slightly..

2025-04-03 16:25:45

With the continuation of the positive orientation of macro-policy in 2025, as well as the combination of fiscal power and real estate "stop falling and stabilize" policy, it will effectively support the recovery of infrastructure and cement industry. The company will seize the key window period of improving quality and efficiency, reforming and innovating, realize value increment under the new normal situation of reducing development, tap potential and increase efficiency inward, firmly promote the upgrading of "high-end, intelligent and green" and the three major transformations of "cement +, internationalization and double carbon", constantly cultivate and develop new momentum and new advantages, and comprehensively consolidate the core. Return investors with better performance.

2025-04-03 16:10:08

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2025-04-03 16:07:58

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2025-04-03 16:06:32

In the first three quarters of 2024, the business situation of the industry declined sharply, and the price reduction was not conducive to the transformation and upgrading of the industry towards high-quality development. Since the second half of the year, the concept has been gradually changed, and the spirit of the Politburo meeting of "strengthening industry self-discipline and preventing vicious competition of involution" has been implemented. The price has been gradually restored, and the decline in sales of leading enterprises has been expanded, but the profits of the industry and enterprises have been improved. At present, the consensus of the industry against "involution" competition is stronger, the mechanism and methods of peak staggering production are becoming more and more mature, and the foundation of the industry's ecological construction is more solid.

2025-04-03 16:02:17

Affected by the impact of off-season demand, the price of cement in January-February this year dropped compared with the end of 2024, but in March, many places began to carry out re-pricing, the price of cement maintained overall stability in periodic and regional fluctuations, and the price level of cement in the first quarter of the country was slightly higher than that of last year. The company will earnestly implement the relevant policy requirements against the industry volume, earnestly implement the peak staggering scheme of local regulators and industry associations, and inject confidence into the recovery of the industry.

2025-04-03 15:59:55

At the end of the meeting, President Gong Leihai once again called on the whole industry to be "highly self-disciplined" in behavior and "rapidly changing" in concept. In such a fragile environment of the whole cement market, it is necessary to establish a "anti-involution" normalization working mechanism of "associations set up platforms, large enterprises take the lead, and small enterprises cooperate".

2025-04-03 15:50:08

On April 1, 2025, the Second Session of the Fifth Council of Sichuan Cement Association and the 2025 Working Conference were successfully held in Chengdu. The meeting was presided over by Du Yunlong, Secretary-General of Sichuan Cement Association, and invited Qing Jiasheng, Director of Material Industry Department of Sichuan Economic and Information Department, Chen Qiang, Head of Atmospheric Department of Sichuan Ecological Environment Department, Yan Songlin, a first-level researcher, to give guidance. Heads and key personnel of the Party Branch, Secretariat, Board of Supervisors, Executive Group and Supervisory Group of Sichuan Cement Association, heads of major cement enterprises in Sichuan Province and their sales leaders,

2025-04-03 15:00:52

In order to cope with global climate change, contribute to global carbon emission reduction, promote the implementation of the national strategy of achieving carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutral "double carbon" in 2060, and fulfill the social responsibility of central enterprises, Sinoma Cement Zambia Company will increase investment in capital and technology in the field of green energy, enable enterprises to develop low-carbon with "green engine", and build a green energy low-carbon plant with zero purchase of electricity overseas.

2025-04-03 14:42:05

In 2024, India's domestic cement industry underwent a major consolidation, with fierce competition between two giants, Chaoke Cement, led by Aditya Birla Group, and Ambuj and ACC Cement, owned by Adani Group. The two companies have aggressively expanded through massive mergers and acquisitions. Chaoke Cement and Adani Cement have acquired 50 million tons per year of capacity for $4.5 billion to consolidate their respective market positions and achieve planned growth.

2025-04-03 13:43:22

On the afternoon of March 31, China National Materials International Engineering Co., Ltd. (Hereinafter referred to as "Sinoma International" or the "Company") held its 2024 annual performance presentation in Beijing. Yin Zhisong, Secretary of the Party Committee and Chairman of the Company, Focus of Independent Directors, Liu Renyue, Executive Vice President, Sui Tongbo, Vice President, Secretary of the Board of Directors, General Counsel and Chief Compliance Officer. Yin Ling, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, attended the meeting and conducted interactive exchanges with investors and analysts.

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On the evening of March 31, Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co., Ltd. (Hereinafter referred to as "Shangfeng Cement") announced that in order to continuously improve the scientific and standardized dividend-sharing mechanism, strengthen the protection of shareholders'rights and interests, deepen the long-term value sharing with investors, in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, combined with business development strategies, Shangfeng Cement Co., Ltd. The company has formulated the Shareholder Dividend Return Plan (2024-2026), which plans that the annual cash dividend amount for three years will not be less than 400 million yuan.

2025-04-03 13:13:57

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2025-04-03 13:11:51

A 1000t/d new dry process cement clinker production line used by Hebei Wushan Cement Co., Ltd. for capacity utilization of 3000t/d new dry process cement clinker production line has been completely dismantled in place, and the production capacity can not be restored.

2025-04-03 10:02:09

According to statistics, since this year, in addition to the above production lines, nine cement clinker production line construction projects have not been promoted, with a total annual production capacity of 13.95 million tons (calculated in 310 days).

2025-04-03 09:44:25

The content shows that the production time of one cement enterprise is calculated according to 330 days, and that of 22 enterprises is calculated according to 270 days. (It is understood that according to the latest version of the implementation measures for capacity replacement in the cement industry, the number of days of annual cement production capacity is calculated as 300 days.)

2025-04-03 09:34:49

Gansu Lanzhou, Baiyin cement price notice rose 30 yuan/ton

2025-04-02 14:33:24

On March 26, Huaxin Cement announced that in 2024, the company's operating income was about RMB 34.217 billion, an increase of 1.36% over 2023; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the company was about RMB 2.416 billion, a decrease of 12.52% over 2023.

2025-04-02 14:00:13

China Tianrui Cement (01252) announces that trading in the shares of the Company on the Stock Exchange will be suspended with effect from 9:00 a.m. on 1 April 2025 until the publication of the 2024 Annual Results Announcement.

2025-04-02 11:57:55

Around March 30, leading enterprises in Guangdong notified Zhanjiang, Maoming and other places to raise the price of bulk cement by 30-40 yuan/ton.

2025-04-02 11:22:18

According to the Conch Cement 2024 Annual Report and ESG Report, by the end of 2024, the Company had a clinker production capacity of 274 million tons, a cement production capacity of 403 million tons, an aggregate production capacity of 163 million tons, a commercial concrete production capacity in operation of 51.9 million cubic meters, and an installed capacity of solar storage power generation in operation of 645 MW.

2025-04-02 10:33:53

Sinoma Cement Tunisia Project is the largest single direct investment of Chinese enterprises in Tunisia in recent years. As the third largest cement enterprise in Tunisia, it has an annual production capacity of 1.5 million tons of cement and 1.6 million tons of aggregate, which has created more employment opportunities for the local area, made positive contributions to tax revenue and promoted the local economic and social development.

2025-04-01 20:16:02

Zhou Yuxian emphasized that the company will make full use of the advantages accumulated in the past development process and strive to create a new situation of high-quality development by "expanding increment, optimizing stock, grasping variables and strengthening quality" in accordance with the established strategic objectives.

2025-04-01 20:10:53

However, the recent sharp decline in cement prices in central Liaoning has broken the stability of the regional market and brought new challenges to the healthy development of the cement industry in Northeast China.

2025-04-01 15:44:06

According to Yang Dan, if calculated according to the annual demand decline of 5%, the national cement demand will be reduced to about 1.3 billion tons by 2030. In this context, the number of off-peak production days needs to increase by about 15 days per year to maintain the current supply and demand situation, which is very difficult. This is a relatively optimistic estimate. In fact, the domestic demand for cement may fall by 7%. It is expected that the demand for cement in Hubei will fall by about 7% in 2025. This is the current demand situation that the industry needs to face for a long time in the future.

2025-04-01 12:27:25

Since March 28, cement enterprises in Xiangyang area of Hubei Province have notified to raise the price of cement by about 30 yuan/ton.

2025-04-01 11:45:42

A few days ago, Dongwu Cement released its annual performance announcement as of December 31, 2024, which showed that the group's revenue was HK $224 million, a decrease of 27.2% over the same period last year; the loss attributable to shareholders was HK $58.63 million, an increase of 60.52% over the same period last year; and the loss per share was HK $0.106.

2025-04-01 10:48:06

Recently, major enterprises in Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou-Shaoxing in northern Zhejiang and Jinhua and Lishui in central and southern Zhejiang notified that the price of high-standard bulk cement would be raised by about 20 yuan/ton.

2025-04-01 10:13:08

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the northwest cement market has recovered weakly, the market in Shaanxi has stabilized in stages, and the price of Gansu, Qinghai and Ningxia has stabilized under the new rising fatigue.

2025-03-31 15:34:56

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the cement market in southwest China has changed frequently. Prices in Sichuan and Yunnan have fluctuated and fluctuated recently. Cement prices in Chongqing have been stable after rising.

2025-03-31 15:24:35

Recently, the General Office of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a circular on the public solicitation of opinions on five national ecological and environmental standards, including "Carbon Footprint Quantification Methods and Requirements for Greenhouse Gas Products Flat Glass (Draft for Opinions)". Methods and Requirements for Quantifying the Carbon Footprint of Products Common Portland Cement (Exposure Draft) (hereinafter referred to as "Exposure Draft").

2025-03-31 15:14:59

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the price of cement in Guangxi started the second round of 20 yuan/ton increase, and the price in Guangdong was mixed. The price of cement in many places in the two lakes has risen by about 30 yuan/ton.

2025-03-31 15:04:34

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the Yangtze River Delta region in East China is planning to continue to push up cement prices by 20-30 yuan/ton around the end of the month, and the implementation is to be tracked. The implementation in Shandong is not good enough, and some of them have fallen back to the level before the rise.

2025-03-31 14:52:47

According to China Cement Market Data Center, with the increase of clinker supply in Northeast China, the price of Liaozhong Cement has dropped by nearly 50 yuan/ton. Under the background of unsolved inventory pressure and weak demand, the short-term market will remain weak.

2025-03-31 14:44:41

According to China Cement Market Data Center News, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was impacted by foreign low-price cement, the price of cement in central and southern Hebei was adjusted back to the level before the rise, and the leading enterprises in northern Hebei were still stable; the market in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia maintained a state of false rise due to weak supply and demand, the actual transaction was low, and the enterprises were on the sidelines.

2025-03-31 14:27:44

Since March 29, Fuyang, Suzhou, Bengbu, Huainan and other regions have raised the price of bulk cement by 20-30 yuan/ton.

2025-03-31 13:33:52

Since the 30th, major manufacturers in central and southern Jiangsu have continued to raise the price of bulk cement by 20 yuan/ton.

2025-03-31 13:32:44