The second half of the year is expected to usher in the turning point of HJT equipment absolute leader.

photovoltaic cells falls into N-type batteries is far from being settled. No, HJT, which was hung by TOPCon in the first half of the year, seems to have signs of Jedi counterattack in the second half of the year. Maiwei is not only deeply involved in it, but also one of the most beneficial companies. The

new energy explosion made it clear that as the leader of screen printing in the era of P-type batteries and the leader of HJT equipment recognized by the current market. With the transformation of photovoltaic industry from P-type to N-type, the trend of Maiwei is bound to be closely related to the latest trend of HJT industry.

Why is it so depressed after the third quarter, especially this year, because in the first half of the year, as if overnight, the photovoltaic giants put aside the dispute over whether the next generation of batteries is TOPCon or HJT, and chose to expand the production of TOPCon batteries first.

But recently, HJT has made some new progress: Netcom Longji may invest in 3GW HJT production line, behind which HJT's cost reduction route has made great progress.

Affected by this expectation, Maiwei has also taken a strong rebound in the near future, with an increase of more than 40% from the bottom, which can not be said to be strong.

Compared with TOPCon, the production process of HJT has been greatly reduced, and in the long run, it can be superimposed with perovskite, and the conversion rate has a very large room for expansion. However, due to the high cost, the industrialization progress of HJT lags behind TOPCon this year. The high cost

of HJT includes slurry cost, target cost, equipment cost, etc. According to statistics, the non-silicon cost gap between HJT battery and PERC battery is about 1.8 cents, and the follow-up industry is expected to save about 4 cents by thinning the silicon wafer, reduce about 6 cents by using silver-coated copper, 0BB and silver powder localization, save about 3 cents in equipment localization and target materials, and then the non-silicon cost gap with PERC can be narrowed to 5-6 cents. The premium of superimposed HJT as an N-type battery is about 0.15 yuan, and the economy will be greatly improved.

This is also what the industry has been working on. As an equipment manufacturer that can provide HJT full-line equipment at present, Maiwei has spared no effort in promoting HJT cost reduction, especially in launching the target indium reduction trilogy to reduce HJT's dependence on indium, and has made some progress.

02HJT

has made substantial progress

in cost reduction. Through continuous optimization of the sputtering unit, the theoretical unit consumption of the latest PVD for 100% indium-based target has been reduced from nearly 20 mg/W to 13.5 mg/W, and the old equipment can also be upgraded. It is expected to be reduced to 12mg/W by the end of 2023. According to the ITO target price of 2500 yuan/kg, the corresponding target cost is about 0.03 yuan/W.

If the low indium stack scheme (50% In-based + 50% non-In-based stack TCO) is combined with the PVD improvement scheme, the theoretical unit consumption of the In-based target can be reduced to 6 mg/W. Subsequently, if indium is recovered on a large scale, it is expected to be reduced to 1mg/W.

In addition, from the perspective of industrialization, the problems of 0 BB (after Huasheng introduced 0 BB, the silver consumption of pure silver dropped from 18 mg/W to 13 mg/W, and the mass production equipment is expected to be introduced in Q4) and double-sided microcrystal (the VHF power supply on the double-sided microcrystal production line is gradually solved. After the introduction, the cell efficiency is expected to reach 25.2%), electroplating copper (electroplating copper related companies such as Xinqi micro-equipment, Robotco, Dongwei Science and Technology have equipment to the client pilot test in the year, the total new scale in the year can reach GW level, and it is expected to be introduced into mass production in 25 years) and other cost reduction paths have also seen substantial progress, and the cost reduction progress of HJT is optimistic.

With the cost reduction of HJT, the advantages of P-type and TOPCon will gradually become prominent. Compared with P-type, the conversion rate ceiling of P-type limits its future. Compared with TOPCon, the process flow is shorter and has the advantage of yield, especially in the TOPCon process. Boron diffusion has a great impact on the yield of solar cells, and it is difficult to solve in principle. In addition, HJT can superimpose perovskite and other technologies, and the ceiling of conversion rate is higher.

As far as the current actual shipment is concerned, under the single-sided microcrystalline process, the power of the same version of HJT module is 10-15 W higher than that of TOPCon module. After the introduction of double-sided microcrystalline and light conversion film, the actual shipment power is worth looking forward to, and the power of 182 version of HJT module is expected to reach 600 W. 20-25W higher than current TOPCon of the same version.

With the continuous promotion of HJT cost reduction, the layout of HJT has begun to accelerate gradually. According to statistics, since last year, 40 enterprises have laid out and planned HJT battery projects, with a total capacity of 347.4 GW, involving an investment of 199.54 billion yuan. However, compared with TOPCon, the current cost of HJT is higher, which leads to the weaker willingness of the industry giants. The industrialization of HJT technology route is mainly dominated by the back-row enterprises in the industry, cross-border enterprises and central state-owned enterprises. They hope to bet on the new technology route to complete the curve overtaking. In addition, they do not have the burden of old production capacity, so the pressure is less.

As the shares of Maiwei with the market share of HJT equipment exceeding 80%, the value of the whole line equipment of HJT is 3.5-4.0 billion yuan/GW. With the continuous progress of HJT industrialization, Maiwei will continue to benefit, and the company's performance growth certainty in the next two years is relatively high.

03

Before the analysis of many new energy subdivision industry leaders, especially the absolute industry leader, the new energy explosion said at that time that for companies that have proved themselves in history, even if the company encounters periodic difficulties. Especially when the industry is in a collective predicament, enterprises should be given more patience. Compared with investors, the management of enterprises knows how to deal with industry competition better.

Maiwei is one of such companies, the past development has proved the company's excellence in the field of photovoltaic cell equipment, now facing the technical route dispute between industries, the company firmly bet on the HJT route, although it seems more dangerous, but because of enough focus, and the cost reduction route is also very clear. In fact, the degree of danger is not as high as you think.

Of course, in the short and medium term, don't go too far because of a rebound. The problem of the market is that when it rises, it looks good desperately, and when it falls, it looks bad desperately. The progress

of HJT industrialization has indeed made progress, but at present TOPCon is really in the lead. According to the above statistics, although the total capacity of this year's HJT project planning is as high as 347.4GW, there are still thousands of miles from the planning to the final contract signing, especially the start-up, many of which are cross-border projects that some listed companies want to engage in hot spots. In the end, most of them come to nothing.

In short, for Maiwei, the new energy explosion firmly believes that it is an excellent enterprise, in the next two years, HJT is expected to accelerate industrialization, the company will continue to benefit, the future growth certainty is strong enough!