On July 25, the China Electric Power Enterprise Federation held a press conference on the power supply and demand situation in the first half of 2023, and Hao Yingjie, spokesman and Secretary-General of the China Electric Power Union, issued the Report on the Analysis and Forecast of the National Power Supply and Demand Situation in the First Half of 2023. According to
the report, in the first half of the year, the installed capacity of power generation in China increased by 140 million kilowatts; by the end of June 2023, the total installed capacity of power generation in China was 2.71 billion kilowatts, an increase over the same period last year. 10. From the perspective of investment by type, growth rate of installed capacity of power generation and structural changes, the power industry continues the trend of green and low-carbon transformation.
It is expected that the installed capacity of new power generation in 2023 will exceed 300 million kilowatts for the first time in history, of which the installed capacity of new non-fossil energy power generation will exceed 2.86 billion kilowatts by the end of 2023. The installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation totaled 1.51 billion kilowatts, accounting for about 53% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 3 percentage points over the same period last year; Among, 420 million kW of hydropower, 430 million kW of grid-connected wind power, Grid-connected solar power 5. By the end of 2023, the total installed capacity of grid-connected wind power and solar power will reach 9.
The full text of the report is as follows:
Analysis and Forecast Report
on the National Power Supply and Demand Situation in the First Half of 2023. The power industry has earnestly implemented the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council on the safety and supply of energy and electricity, carried out the purpose of "people's power industry for the people" with practical actions, carried forward the power spirit of "loyalty, realistic innovation, pursuit of excellence and dedication to light", and withstood the continuous drying of incoming water and multiple rounds of high temperatures. It provides a strong power guarantee for economic and social development and people's better life. Power supply is safe and stable, the growth rate of power consumption is stable and good, and the overall situation of power supply and demand is balanced.
1. National electricity supply and demand
in the first half of 2023 (1) Electricity consumption demand
In the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of the whole society was 4.31 trillion kWh, an increase of 5.0% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 2. In the first and second quarters, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased by 3.6% and 6.4% respectively; In the first and second quarters, the average annual growth rates were 5.0% and 4 respectively.
First, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 57.7 billion kWh, an increase of 12 over the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of agriculture, fishery and animal husbandry increased by 7.9%, 11.9% and 18% respectively compared with the same period last year. Electric power enterprises actively contributed to rural revitalization, vigorously implemented rural power grid consolidation and upgrading projects, promoted the electrification transformation of agricultural production and rural industries, and stimulated the rapid growth of electricity consumption in the primary industry.
Second, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 2.87 trillion kWh, an increase of 4. Among them, the electricity consumption of the first and second quarters increased by 4.2% and 4. The electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry in the first half of the year increased by 4. In terms of categories, the electricity consumption of the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry in the first half of the year increased by 8.1%, exceeding the overall growth level of the manufacturing industry by 3.8 percentage points; In the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 26.0% year-on-year, of which the electricity consumption of photovoltaic equipment and components manufacturing industry increased by 76. The electricity consumption of new energy vehicle manufacturing in the first half of the year increased by 50. The electricity consumption of the four high-energy industries in the first half of the year increased by 2.5%, of which the first and second quarters increased by 4.2% and 0.9% respectively; The electricity consumption of ferrous metal smelting and calendering industry decreased by 1.6% in the first half of the year, and the quarterly growth rate changed from 2.7% in the first quarter to decline in the second quarter. 5. The electricity consumption of consumer goods manufacturing industry increased by 3.0% in the first half of the year, and the quarterly growth rate of electricity consumption changed from 1.7% in the first quarter to increase in the second quarter. 7. The electricity consumption of other manufacturing industries increased by 8.1% in the first half of the year. Among them, the first and second quarter increased by 5.2% and 10.7% respectively; In the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of oil, coal and other fuel processing industries increased by 13.
Third, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 763.1 billion kWh, an increase of 9. Among them, the first and second quarters increased by 4.1% and 15.9% respectively, with an average growth rate of 5.3% and 7. The service sector economy showed a steady recovery trend. In the first half of the year, the growth rate of electricity consumption in leasing and business services, accommodation and catering, transportation/warehousing and postal services, wholesale and retail industries was between 13% and 15% year-on-year. In the second quarter, the growth rate of electricity consumption in these four industries was more than 20% year-on-year, and the recovery trend after the epidemic was obvious. In the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of the charging and switching service industry increased by 73.
Fourth, the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 619.7 billion kWh, an increase of 1% over the same period last year. Among them, the first and second quarters increased by 0.2% and 2.6% respectively, and the main reasons for the low growth in the first quarter were the warmer temperature and the high base of the same period last year; In the first and second quarters, the average growth rates were 5.9% and 5% respectively. In the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents in 12 provinces showed negative year-on-year growth, of which Shanghai and Xinjiang decreased by 6.4% and 5% respectively.
Fifth, the electricity consumption of 29 provinces in China showed positive growth, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the eastern and western regions was relatively leading. In the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions increased by 5.7%, 2.3%, 5.7% and 4% respectively. In the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of the whole society in 29 provinces in China increased positively, of which Hainan, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Guangxi and Xizang provinces increased by more than 10% year-on-year.
(2) Power production and supply
In the first half of the year, the installed capacity of power generation increased by 140 million kilowatts nationwide; By the end of June 2023, the total installed capacity of power generation in China was 2.71 billion kilowatts, an increase over the same period last year. 10. From the perspective of investment by type, growth rate of installed capacity of power generation and structural changes, the power industry continued the trend of green and low-carbon transformation.
First, power investment increased by 32.2% year-on-year, and the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation investment in power investment reached 88. In the first half of the year, the key enterprises surveyed completed 537.3 billion yuan of power investment, an increase of 32. Among them, the investment in non-fossil energy power generation was 294 billion yuan, an increase of 60.9% over the previous year, accounting for 88% of the total investment in power supply. The investment in solar power generation, nuclear power, wind power, thermal power and hydropower increased by 113.6%, 56.1%, 34.3%, 13.0% and 10% respectively over the previous year.
Second, the newly installed capacity of solar power accounted for 55.6% of the total newly installed capacity, and the cumulative installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation in China rose to 51 at the end of June. In the first half of the year, the newly installed capacity of power generation in China was 140 million kilowatts, an increase of 71.86 million kilowatts over the same period last year; Among them, the newly installed capacity of grid-connected solar power generation was 78.42 million kilowatts, an increase of 47.54 million kilowatts over the same period of last year, accounting for 55% of the total newly installed capacity of power generation. By the end of June, the total installed capacity of power generation in China was 2.71 billion kilowatts; Among them, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation was 1.39 billion kilowatts, an increase of 18.6% over the same period last year, accounting for 51.5% of the total installed capacity, an increase over the same period last year. 3. In terms of types, the installed capacity of hydropower at the end of June was 420 million kilowatts, including 370 million kilowatts of conventional hydropower, 48.79 million kilowatts of pumped storage and 56.76 million kilowatts of nuclear power; The grid-connected wind power is 390 million kilowatts, including 360 million kilowatts of onshore wind power and 31.46 million kilowatts of offshore wind power; the grid-connected solar power is 41.36 billion kilowatts of thermal power, including 1.14 billion kilowatts of coal-fired power, accounting for 42.1% of the total installed capacity of power generation, a decrease of 3.4 percentage points over the same period last year; In the
first half of the year, the power generation of power plants above the national scale was 4.17 trillion kWh, an increase over the same period last year. 3. Among them, the hydropower generation of power plants above the national scale decreased by 22.9% over the same period last year, due to the insufficient water storage of major reservoirs and the continuous low precipitation since this year, combined with the high base of the same period last year. As a result, hydropower generation has continued to decline year on year since this year, and the decline has expanded. In May and June, hydropower generation decreased by 32.9% and 33.3% respectively. Thermal power generation and nuclear power generation of power plants above designated size increased by 7.5% and 6 respectively. Full-scale grid-connected wind power generation increased by 21. Coal-fired power generation accounted for 58% of the total full-scale power generation.
Fourth, the utilization hours of wind power, thermal power and nuclear power generation equipment increased by 83, 84 and 97 hours respectively. In the first half of the year, the utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants of 6000 kilowatts and above were 1733 hours, 44 hours lower than same period last year. In terms of types, hydropower is 1239 hours, which is 452 hours lower than same period last year. Among them, conventional hydropower is 1330 hours, which is 498 hours lower than same period last year. Pumped storage is 612 hours, which is 32 hours higher than same period last year. Thermal power: 2,142 hours, an increase of 84 hours over the same period of last year; of which, coal power: 2,244 hours, an increase of 104 hours over the same period of last year; gas power: 1,136 hours, an increase of 47 hours over the same period of last year. 3770 hours of nuclear power, an increase of 97 hours over the same period. Grid-connected wind power 1237 hours, an increase of 83 hours over the same period. Grid-connected solar power generation was 658 hours, 32 hours lower than same period last year.
Fifth, trans-regional power transmission increased by 11.7% year-on-year, and trans-provincial power transmission increased by 6. In the first half of the year, the length of 220 kV and above transmission lines increased by 1.In the first half of the year, the country completed trans-regional power transmission of 365.4 billion kWh, an increase of 11% over the same period last year. From a regional perspective, the power transmission from North China increased by 50.1%; the power transmission from Northeast China to North China increased by 79.9%; and the power transmission from China to foreign countries increased by 2.3%; The power transmission from the northwest increased by 1.9%, accounting for 41.8% of the national trans-regional power transmission; the power transmission from the southwest decreased by 10.3% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the decrease in hydropower output; In the first half of the year, the national inter-provincial transmission of electricity was 819.9 billion kWh, an increase of 6.1% over the same period last year, of which Inner Mongolia sent 138.8 billion kWh, accounting for 16.9% of the national inter-provincial transmission, an increase of 15.7% over the same period last year; Power transmission from Sichuan and Yunnan decreased by 12.9% and 23% respectively as compared with the same period last year.
(III) National Power Supply and Demand
In the first half of the year, the power industry spared no effort to ensure safety, people's livelihood and key power supply, the power system operated safely and stably, and the overall power supply and demand were balanced. Influenced by factors such as low water supply and tight coal supply, a small number of provincial power grids in southwest China are in a tense situation of power supply and demand in some periods. Through the coordinated efforts of both ends of supply and demand, the bottom line of people's livelihood electricity safety is firmly maintained.
2. National power supply and demand situation forecast
(1) Power consumption forecast
takes into account macroeconomic, summer temperature, last year's base and other factors, according to the forecast results of different forecasting methods for the whole society's electricity consumption, combined with the pre judgment of experts in the analysis and forecast of power supply and demand situation, and makes a comprehensive judgment. It is estimated that the electricity consumption of the whole society in 2023 will be 9.
(2) Power supply forecast
Driven by the rapid development of new energy power generation, it is expected that the installed capacity of new power generation in 2023 will exceed 300 million kilowatts for the first time in history. By the end of 2023, the national installed capacity of power generation is expected to reach 2.86 billion kilowatts, an increase of 11. The total installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation is 1.51 billion kilowatts, accounting for about 53% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 3 percentage points over the same period last year; Among them, 420 million kilowatts of hydropower, 430 million kilowatts of grid-connected wind power and 5. By the end of 2023, the total installed capacity of grid-connected wind power and solar power will reach 9.
The national economy is recovering well, and the temperature in most parts of the country this summer is close to normal to high. It is estimated that the maximum electricity load in summer will increase by 80 million kilowatts to 100 million kilowatts compared with 2022. In terms of power supply, the actual increase in stable and effective supply capacity is lower than increase in electricity load. In addition, there are uncertainties in precipitation, wind and solar resources, and fuel supply. From the perspective of supply and demand balance, under the overall normal conditions of water supply, fuel supply and unit operation, it is expected that the overall balance of power supply and demand in China will be tight during the summer peak period in 2023. Among them, the situation of power supply and demand in East China, Central China and South China is tight during the peak period, while the balance of power supply and demand in North China, Northeast China and Northwest China is basically balanced.
3. Relevant suggestions
In the first half of 2023, the power system withstood the test of continuous low water supply and multiple rounds of high temperature, and the power operation was stable and orderly. The electric power industry conscientiously implements the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, with a sense of responsibility of "always at ease", plans ahead and goes all out to do a good job in guaranteeing power supply. In order to ensure the safety and stability of the large power grid during the peak period of power consumption, keep the bottom line of people's livelihood, and ensure the economic and social demand for electricity, the report combines the situation of power supply and demand with the development trend of the industry. The following suggestions are put forward:
(1) Comprehensive measures should be taken to ensure the power supply
during the peak period of power consumption. First, the dynamic monitoring, analysis and early warning of power supply and demand should be carefully done. Strengthen meteorological consultation and analysis to improve the accuracy of forecasting and early warning of new energy power generation. Closely follow up the changes of water inflow in major river basins, constantly strengthen water regime prediction, do a good job in water storage and power generation, scientifically optimize hydropower dispatching, and actively take effective measures such as multi-energy complementarity to give full play to the peak power generation capacity of large hydropower stations. Closely follow up the economic development and changes in the trend of electricity consumption demand in various regions, study and judge the short-term electricity balance on a rolling basis, and timely grasp the new situations and problems arising in the operation.
Second, we should take various measures to enhance the ability of power supply guarantee. To formulate measures for guaranteeing supply and flexible production of coal mines, give priority to organizing qualified coal mines with advanced production capacity to increase production capacity according to a certain coefficient, form emergency production capacity of coal mines, and consolidate the basis for guaranteeing supply of energy security. We will strengthen supervision over the performance of medium- and long-term contracts for electricity and coal, do a good job in linking up all parties involved in production, transportation and demand, and ensure the safe and stable supply of coal for power generation. We should attach great importance to safe production, strengthen the operation and maintenance management of power equipment, improve the reliability of equipment, and ensure the stable and full operation of units and the safe and stable operation of UHV transmission channels. Continuously improve the utilization rate of trans-regional and trans-provincial lines, increase the mutual aid between provinces, and maximize the balance of power and electricity. Give full play to the role of inter-provincial medium and long-term market, inter-provincial spot trading and cross-regional emergency dispatch, and support power supply by market means. Coordinate the management of emergency standby power supply to ensure the power supply during peak hours and the power supply support of the load center.
The three is to strengthen power load management and tap demand side resources. We will improve the power demand response mechanism, further expand the sources of demand response funds, and establish a long-term mechanism for market participants to share. A list of interruptible users is formed to ensure that the interruptible load meets the emergency response requirements of the system. Market participants should be guided to actively participate in power demand response and reduce peak load demand in a market-oriented way. Focus on key areas, key time periods and key areas to ensure power supply, and keep the bottom line of people's livelihood electricity safety. Strengthen the management of air conditioning load and guide enterprises and residents to save electricity. Enterprises are encouraged to formulate seasonal peak staggering production plans and guide high energy-consuming enterprises to stagger peak and avoid peak production. Improve the time-of-use electricity price policy, expand the implementation scale for the provinces that have issued the time-of-use electricity price policy, and promote the adjustment from selective implementation to full implementation; urge the provinces that have not yet issued the time-of-use electricity price policy to issue the policy as soon as possible; urge the provinces that have implemented the "annual ladder" policy of residential electricity price to implement the "monthly ladder" electricity price.
(2) To ensure the healthy development of coal-fired power enterprises and give full play to the basic role
of coal-fired power supply, the first is to ensure the "quantity", "quality" and "price" of electric power fuel. Continue to release advanced coal production capacity, provide a basis for coal quality and price stability, while maintaining the stability of the import coal policy, continue to stabilize the domestic coal price in a reasonable range. Adjust the current pricing mechanism of "single card consistency" for medium and long-term contracts, clearly follow the principle of "high quality and high price, low quality and low price", and adopt graded differential pricing. To study and improve the medium and long-term contract pricing mechanism of power coal, supplement the content of high quality and high price, form a long-term mechanism to improve the quality of power coal, and provide practical guarantee for the high level output of coal-fired power units.
Two, we should improve the formation mechanism of electricity prices and rationally ease the cost of coal and electricity. Based on the changes of coal prices in various provinces (regions), taking into account the utilization hours of coal-fired power generation, fixed costs, long-term loan interest rates and other factors in the region, the benchmark price of coal-fired power is evaluated, and the "benchmark price" adjustment system of coal-fired power and the floating mechanism of coal-fired on-grid electricity price are studied and established. We will accelerate the formulation and promulgation of the "two-part" electricity price for coal and electricity, set compensation standards for ancillary services according to local conditions, rationally ease the cost of coal and electricity, and ensure that the value of peak supply and system regulation of coal-fired power units is reasonably returned. To urge all localities to strictly implement the coal and electricity price policy, publish the energy efficiency list of high energy-consuming enterprises as soon as possible, and establish and improve the differential electricity price system for high energy-consuming enterprises.
Third, we should ensure the supply of electricity and coal in key areas and key periods, and increase policy support for the relief of coal and electricity enterprises. Strengthen the monitoring and early warning of water, coal and inventory in Southwest, Central and East China, increase the coordination of railway transport capacity and coal resources in key areas, and do a good job of coal storage in major and key coal mines in advance. Do a good job of adopting demand side management, inter-network and inter-provincial power supply guarantee plan. We will increase fiscal, taxation and financial policy support for areas with long-term guaranteed supply and relative shortage of coal resources, alleviate the operational pressure of guaranteed power plants, and ensure that the role of coal and electricity is continuously played.
(3) Promoting the high-quality development
of new energy is to scientifically and rationally enhance the space for new energy consumption. Optimize the scale, layout and timing of new energy development on a rolling basis, rationally promote the progress of new energy construction, and ensure large-scale renewable energy consumption. Implementing the responsibility of user side consumption, improving the green certificate trading mechanism, smoothing the channels for purchasing green electricity and green certificates, expanding the scale of green certificate and green electricity trading, and implementing the responsibility of the whole society to jointly promote energy transformation. We will increase the coordinated planning, coordinated development and joint dispatch of regional renewable energy, and further play the role of new energy in energy supply.
Second, we should improve the trading mechanism of the new energy market and scientifically promote the entry of new energy into the market. Establish a power market mechanism more suitable for the characteristics of new energy, improve the power load curve trading mechanism of new energy belt, further increase the frequency and variety of transactions, and give the main body of new energy more room for adjustment. Liberalize the price limit or set a reasonable price range for new energy projects to participate in market transactions, and effectively link up the spot market with the priority of power generation. Strengthen the rigid restraint of the weight of absorption responsibility, implement the assessment and punishment mechanism of absorption responsibility, and embody the green environmental value of new energy.
Third, we should promote the construction of the power ancillary service market and rationally guide the cost of ancillary services. We should improve the market mechanism of ancillary services, strengthen the exploration and research on optimizing the variety of ancillary services, expanding the scope of resource sharing of ancillary services, and expanding the main body of ancillary services. According to the principle of "who bears and who benefits", we should scientifically set up compensation standards for ancillary services and the proportion of distribution and use, so as to promote the guidance of ancillary services to the user side.
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