The logic of photovoltaic reshuffle!

Thousands of sails pass by the side of

a sunken boat, and thousands of trees spring in front of a diseased tree! According

to the analysis of industry leaders, half of the photovoltaic enterprises may be eliminated in the future due to the cruel competition!

Still have old man to remind: The difference on the technology often is the most difficult, some enterprises, you are mountain fastness edition originally, what difference can you make? There is no absolute "good" and no absolute "bad". Some enterprises are eliminated, some enterprises stay, some enterprises take advantage of the situation to consolidate their competitive advantages, and even accelerate to become oligarchs; in business, there are both ice and fire, and they are aware of the cold and warm. The history of

photovoltaic industry for more than 20 years has proved that optimistic people are getting richer and pessimistic people are getting wiser-but when all the factors are reversed, pessimistic people stand in the center of the stage and optimistic people go to the roof. In order to achieve sustainable development of the

industry, it is indispensable to be alert to the risk of overheating and even "prepare for a rainy day".

[1] The oligopoly trend is still obvious, the "Matthew effect" of the strong is highlighted in the chaos, and there is no room for the weak in the future.

The photovoltaic industry is very hot, with a large influx of capital and a large number of enterprises. But under the mixed situation, you will find that the old photovoltaic enterprises, as a whole, still occupy the leading and leading position.

Longji, Tongwei, Tianhe, Jingke, TCL Zhonghuan, Jingao, Atlas, Sunshine Power and other old enterprises still maintain steady development, and from the development basis and trend, the "Matthew effect" of the strong is still obvious. In short, in the era of double carbon, after a new round of elimination, there is no room for the weak in the future.

From the specific operating data, the Black Hawk team has continued to do a lot of statistical analysis, in the three years of the epidemic, in all photovoltaic listed companies, the top ten companies in the list of revenue, net profit, order size, financing scale, foreign investment cash flow outflow and so on, all accounted for more than 60% of the overall proportion. Some data even exceed 90%. The following table is the top three statistics of the top ten photovoltaic rankings in fiscal year 2022.

[2] With the rapid development of "vertical integration", there will be a fierce battle between oligarchs. It is time to really test the comprehensive strength and strategic ability of the giants, and the events of trampling on each other in different links of the industrial chain will certainly occur intensively. Accompanied

by the crazy expansion of production capacity and the fierce game of supply chain, various photovoltaic giants are running all the way in pursuit of vertical integration.

Including Longji, Tongwei, Jingao, Tianhe, TCL Zhonghuan, Dongfang Risheng, Zhengtai Xinneng and other large-scale enterprises, catch up with each other on the road of "vertical integration", each is a big investment, each investment is 10 billion, or even 100 billion.

entered 2023, the integrated layout of various giants became more fierce." In the past, Trina Solar, Jingao Technology, Atlas, JinkoSolar, Dongfang Risheng, Suntech, Chint and other leading companies focused on the sales of modules as their core business, with batteries and silicon wafers as their supporting production lines; Runyang New Energy and Yijing Optoelectronics extended from the downstream of the cell business to photovoltaic modules; Longji shares are the dual leader of silicon wafers and components, while Tongwei shares are the dual leader of photovoltaic silicon materials and cells. In the

long run, what will be the result of "integration"?

However, it is particularly noteworthy that the main competitors of the specific crazy layout integration may not only be the equal leaders, but also the second and third-tier enterprises. Second-and third-tier enterprises, as well as numerous cross-border manufacturing enterprises, how to deal with the suppression of the giants, this is a more realistic and cruel problem.

[3] The second, third and fourth-tier enterprises or cross-border enterprises must have the trump card of "differentiation" if they want to rise and surpass!

As far as the current competition pattern and trend are concerned, manufacturing enterprises should step on the dividend of N-type iteration, and have very obvious differentiation advantages in technology and products; enterprises involved in the development of terminal power stations should have a foundation and accumulation in innate channels; in addition, the capital endowment behind some cross-border enterprises is also very important.

this year's Shanghai exhibition, Jingke Energy, Jingao Science and Technology, Longji Green Energy and Tongwei Shares announced the expansion of production. These four companies are not only big players, but also old players. They have experienced many cycles of baptism in the industry. Their strong ability to resist risks and keen sense of market smell are far from comparable to new players. These production capacities will be released centrally in 2023 and 2024. In addition, the 500GW does not include the capacity of foreign enterprises, domestic second-and third-tier enterprises, nor the old capacity before 2022. There will be a long and painful process for the old production capacity to be cleared.

Head photovoltaic enterprises dare to collectively expand production at this time, the greatest confidence may be due to their healthy financial situation, cost-effective products and familiarity with the photovoltaic industry. The industry will be reshuffled because of overcapacity, and many enterprises will die in the future. However, for the old players in the head, the dead friends will not die. In fact, if the external market environment deteriorates, vicious competition and price wars occur frequently, whoever has thicker safety cushions and thicker winter cotton-padded jackets will be able to survive until the next spring.

As we all know, looking back on the past three years, cross-border is not a new thing for the photovoltaic industry, and the number of cross-border enterprises is not small, such as Qinghai Lihao, Xinjiang Jingnuo, Jiangsu Meike, Shuangliang Energy Conservation, Zhongqing Group, Mingyang Intelligence, Hebang Biology, Huayang Shares, Geely, and so on. It is mainly distributed in silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, components and other links. In addition, more enterprises outside the industry are involved in the photovoltaic industry by investing in distributed power plants.

However, after 2023, with a new round of price competition in the photovoltaic industry, we believe that the operation of some enterprises that have crossed the border may be greatly impacted; enterprises or capital that want to enter the photovoltaic industry will "flinch".Gao Jifan, chairman

of Trina Solar, analyzed at the forum in Xuancheng, Anhui: "Objectively speaking, cross-border and cross-line challenges are still relatively large.". Because we need to dig some teams or technologies from some leading enterprises and start over. However, the current industry competition is high-intensity competition, and the comprehensive competitiveness of some cross-border and cross-industry enterprises may not have time to fully build up, so they have to face challenges. This phenomenon is most obvious in the current polysilicon industry, and now and in the future, the leading enterprises will still occupy a dominant position, as well as in other sectors. In the last sentence, only enterprises that are stronger and better and can always provide customers with high-quality products and services can win the future. Cao Renxian, chairman of

Sunshine Power Supply, said bluntly, "If our photovoltaic enterprises have not created their own differentiated competitiveness, even if it is marketing differentiation, you may not be there when we meet again next time."

So, I think if we discuss this topic, from the perspective of management, the differentiation of marketing may be relatively easy to achieve. But technical differentiation is often the most difficult, some enterprises, you are a copycat version, what differentiation can you make? With the price reduction in 2023, industrial profits will be transferred and balanced. Which link in the

photovoltaic industry chain is the most profitable?

In the past few years, the silicon material sector has undoubtedly been the biggest winner. The overall gross profit margin of silicon materials reached 73 in fiscal year 2022.

the past few months." The decline in the price of silicon materials will lead to the decline in the prices of silicon wafers, batteries and components. Judging from the relative extent of price reduction, the price reduction of batteries and components is less than that of upstream silicon materials and wafers, so the upstream price reduction will inevitably reconstruct the profit pattern of the industrial chain, and the profitability of downstream battery and component enterprises will gradually improve. Some analysts also believe that due to the tight supply of high-purity quartz sand and the dividend of N-type technology development, most of the profit margins are retained in the silicon wafer and battery links, especially in the transfer to high-efficiency batteries. When the price of

silicon materials was at a high level, it did restrict the development of the whole industrial chain and the income accounting of downstream power plants. As the price of silicon materials falls to a reasonable level, it will be decoupled from the price of components and the willingness of project owners to purchase, which is relatively clear. With the decline in the price of silicon materials, the vertical integration rate is higher, or the photovoltaic enterprises with earlier N-type capacity layout can seize the opportunity to achieve a better level of profitability in the second half of this year.

In the third quarter, the new production capacity of polysilicon entered the stage of centralized release, but because the sales price has dropped to the cost line, the latecomer enterprises have no power to put into production and delayed, the increase of silicon material supply is limited, the upstream price can not be reduced, and the profit of the industrial chain is further transferred to the downstream. As component prices fall, terminal demand may be further repaired and improved.

silicon material price reduction will be allocated to photovoltaic cell enterprises, because the progress of battery technology requires capital investment, and integrated enterprises can maximize the profits of silicon wafers, batteries and components. Of course, a considerable part of the profits from upstream price reduction will also be allocated to end users.

[5] After the crazy expansion of production capacity, it is inevitable that there will be a stage of "absolute surplus", and the price war characterized by "low-price competition" will impact the competition pattern, and even malicious low-price competition! "Excess" is usually the norm of competitive market, but "absolute excess" or huge excess will inevitably lead to fierce competition and strong shuffling.

Black Hawk Photovoltaic has counted that in the past three years, first, the upstream polysilicon sector, the cumulative investment in the past three years was 20.7 billion, 220 billion and 450 billion respectively, with obvious acceleration. Second, the total investment in silicon rods/wafers is over 290 billion. Among the four links of photovoltaic industry, the greatest pressure may not be the components that have always said that they can not make money, but the silicon chip link. Thirdly, the total investment in batteries and components is 310.6 billion yuan, 220 billion yuan and over 300 billion yuan respectively, totaling over 830 billion yuan. Fourthly, investment in photovoltaic glass production capacity reached 21.6 billion, 70.9 billion and 12.9 billion respectively, making 2021 the most radical year for expansion. Fifthly, the investment quota of core auxiliary materials such as film, diamond wire and backplane reached 18.2 billion, 13.9 billion and 19 billion respectively. In terms of

production capacity, for example, in the upstream polysilicon sector, China's polysilicon production capacity will be 520,000 tons by the end of 2021, more than 1.2 million tons by 2022, and more than 3 million tons by 2023. By the end of 2024, the production capacity of new and old players of photovoltaic upstream polysilicon will exceed 4 million tons.

According to the current equation that every 10000 tons of polysilicon can produce 4 gigawatts of photovoltaic modules, how many modules will 4 million tons of polysilicon correspond to? The serious "involution" of the

silicon wafer link is well known, and the entry of a large amount of capital, including new players from all walks of life, will inevitably increase the competition and variables in this field. In the silicon wafer sector, Longji and Zhonghuan were originally a duopoly. Last year, Jinko, Jingao, Jingyuntong, and CNC all increased their production capacity on a large scale. For example, Gaojing Solar, a new player, has planned a silicon wafer production capacity of 50GW.

From the price point of view, compared with the high point of 330000 yuan/ton in 2022, the cumulative maximum decline of silicon materials has reached 80%! With the fierce competition in the industry, the market still has the possibility of a slight adjustment and decline.

According to the current overall price and market changes, even if the price of silicon materials drops to 60000 yuan/ton, Tongwei, Daquan and other leading silicon materials are still profitable, but they are also very close to the cost line. When the "five polysilicon tigers" feel the cost pressure, the situation of the second and third-tier silicon enterprises will only be worse.

What is certain is that the cost line of non-leading silicon enterprises and new forces is higher, and new entrants are basically producing at a loss, and if the price of silicon materials continues to fall, it is not excluded that some enterprises will be forced to reduce production, and the new forces will probably fall into the predicament of being beaten before eating meat.

At present, three of the domestic enterprises producing silicon materials have been shut down for maintenance due to market price factors, and the time for resumption of production remains to be determined. Due to the recent sharp fluctuations in market prices, in order to avoid operational risks, Dongli, Baofeng and other enterprises choose to delay production.

There is no doubt that the reshuffle of the silicon industry has begun, and the old silicon enterprises with cost advantages will probably laugh to the end.

So: What level will the price of silicon materials fall to in 2023? What level will the price of components fall to in 2023? 4 to 1.5 yuan, and then through the continuous vicious price war of silicon material enterprises, when the average cost line of the industry falls to 60 yuan, the corresponding component price can reach 1.3 to 1.5 yuan.

[6] In the new "big competition and cooperation era" of photovoltaic industry, how to position itself in the industrial interest ecosphere with many variables, how to find suitable partners, and even how to integrate into the "big competition and cooperation" system are undoubtedly related to the survival of enterprises.

Black Hawk Photovoltaic has written that China and even the world have entered a new "era of competition and cooperation".

Especially in the past two years, under the trend of "double carbon" and the game of industrial chain, the cooperation mode, scale and scope of photovoltaic industry have changed significantly. There are endless competition and cooperation in the

industry, including project cooperation, joint venture and mutual equity participation based on vertical integration capabilities and interests; long-term order cooperation and long-term order signing based on ensuring supply chain security; cross-border cooperation based on making up for operational shortcomings and strengthening operational strategies; complementary advantages and cooperation between state-owned enterprises and private capital; Complementary advantages, cooperation between traditional energy and new energy enterprises, in-depth cooperation between banks, insurance and other financial institutions and photovoltaic enterprises, etc.

Under such changes, for all kinds of photovoltaic enterprises, especially the large-scale enterprises in the core manufacturing sector, how to position themselves in the industrial interest ecosphere with many variables, how to find suitable partners, and even how to integrate into the "big competition and cooperation" system are undoubtedly related to the long-term development of enterprises in the future.

Smart Photovoltaics:

, it can be expected that energy storage can achieve the goal of photovoltaic and wind power installation with certain limitations." It is of great significance to achieve the goals of "carbon peak" and "carbon neutralization", which is also the underlying reason for China's vigorous advocacy of energy storage in recent years.

here, such as Ningde Times, BYD, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Kelu Electronics, Kehua Data, Nandu Power Supply, Shuangdeng Group, Pineng Technology, Zhongtian Technology, Cairi Energy, etc. Of course, the Black Hawk team found that there are many small and medium-sized enterprises trying to make some quick money in the field of energy storage. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the new growth and new changes of energy storage have just begun, and the competition pattern of the market may also change greatly.

It is worth noting that in the photovoltaic field, Sunshine Power, Huawei Digital Energy, Shangneng Electric, Trina Solar Energy, Atlas Solar Energy, Jingke Energy and other enterprises are accelerating the layout of energy storage business and solutions.

have successfully landed in the capital market have the opportunity to develop. Photovoltaic industry is a capital-intensive industry, whether it is photovoltaic equipment or raw materials, enterprises need to invest a lot of money. At the same time, the photovoltaic industry is also a high-tech industry, and the technology update iteration is very fast, which requires a large amount of capital investment from enterprises to update the production line.

Based on the characteristics of the industry, photovoltaic enterprises need frequent financing, and listing is undoubtedly the most effective way of financing. Black Hawk Photovoltaic Statistics found that nearly 30 photovoltaic companies (photovoltaic business accounts for more than 30% of total revenue) are sprinting for IPO, covering components, silicon wafers, inverters, distributed, testing equipment, diamond wire and other fields. These enterprises include Xinte Energy, Shouhang Xinneng, Sanjing Stock, Runyang Stock, Sunny Technology, Meike Stock, Oputai, Debang Technology, Xinhongye, Rainbow New Energy, Kuaike Electronics, Shengpu Stock, Shichuang Energy, Guruiwatt, Solat, Oujing Technology, Huabao New Energy, Arrow Energy, Lixin Energy, yuanshi New Material, Zhizhen Stock, and so on.

The interesting news is that on June 1 this year, Gaojing Solar formally submitted its prospectus to raise 5 billion yuan by listing on the GEM, which has been inquired by the exchange. Benefiting from the rapid growth of market demand for monocrystalline silicon wafers, the order scale of Gaojing solar products has increased rapidly, and the company's revenue and profit have increased rapidly with the continuous increase of production capacity of silicon wafers. From 2020 to 2022, the revenue of Gaojing Solar Energy was 891 million yuan, 2.491 billion yuan and 17.570 billion yuan respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of over 100%; Net profits were-1.13 million yuan, 108 million yuan and 18.

In addition, the development of the industry is accelerating, and the primary market is full of confidence in photovoltaic as a whole. According to the incomplete statistics of the VC Intelligence Bureau, since 2022, there have been 111 financing events in the photovoltaic industry.