Viewpoint summary:
At present, the supply and demand of soda ash in September are controversial, and there are many uncertainties, such as the production time of Alashan soda ash production capacity, import and export volume, light alkali demand, alkali plant maintenance, etc., so it is impossible to make a highly deterministic judgment on the market. However, we can assume various conditions to deduce the changes in market supply and demand, and then wait for each assumption to be verified, and then make a judgment on the future market according to the market verification. We assume various conditions to simulate the extreme situation of supply and demand shortage and loose supply and demand:
1. The production capacity of Alashan is delayed for one month + the alkali plant is overhauled on time + the export volume is in the normal range + the demand for light alkali is growing normally = the extreme shortage of supply and demand.
2. The production capacity of Alashan was put into operation on time + the maintenance of the alkali plant was delayed + the export volume declined rapidly + the demand for light alkali did not increase = the supply and demand were loose and ahead of schedule.
According to the calculation, whether the supply and demand of the market in September is in short supply or loose, the biggest factor is the behavior and strategy of the alkali plant in this process. If each alkali plant chooses to maximize profits without overhaul or rapid overhaul during the dividend period, and adopts the price strategy, the price strategy may reduce the net export volume by a large margin, even if the production capacity of Alashan soda ash is delayed for one month, the market supply and demand may be slightly relaxed, and the market supply and demand may be slightly relaxed under various conditions. The situation of tight supply and demand of soda ash is more likely to be gradually alleviated under the common factors of upstream and downstream.
1. The magnitude of influence on the difference between supply and demand of soda ash, and the magnitude of influence on the behavior of soda ash plants from
January to September on the difference between supply and demand (the calculated data is only a possibility, which can be corrected according to the actual situation):
1. The production capacity of Alashan was put into operation on time, and the output before September was 925,000 tons. One month's output was 555,000 tons, with a difference of 330,000 tons.
2. The alkali plant will not be overhauled before September, which will increase the output by about 1 million tons at most compared with the overhaul.
If the alkali plant wants to maximize its profits in the market dividend period, it may choose to postpone or quickly overhaul under the condition of ensuring safe production, produce about 1 million tons more under the possible extreme conditions from January to September, maintain a high start-up since October 2022, and increase the frequency of overhaul under long-term high load. We need to actually observe the maintenance of Houshi Alkali Plant.
3. From January to September, the net export volume is normally estimated to be around 700,000 tons. If the export declines too fast, the net export may decrease by 200,000 tons. Under the influence of factors such as the expected decline in
overseas demand, the decline in energy prices, the expansion of soda ash production capacity or the resumption of production, the price of overseas soda ash may gradually decline. If the alkali plant chooses a sustained price strategy, the price strategy may reduce the net export volume by a large margin.
4. The demand for light alkali normally increases by 4%, with an increment of about 500,000 tons. If caustic soda replaces light alkali, there will be no increment for light alkali.
Light alkali and caustic soda as raw materials have a certain substitution relationship in industries such as sodium silicate, monosodium glutamate, alumina, detergent and so on. The overall demand for soda ash in these industries is about 12%. Theoretically, the substitution range is very large. However, due to the differences in raw materials used in product processes and the differences in product quality of different raw materials, We believe that there is a big difference between the actual substitution amount and the theoretical value. Here, it is calculated according to the annual substitution of 500,000 tons, and the substitution of 300,000-400,000 tons from January to September. The price of caustic soda fluctuates greatly, so we still need to observe the change of the price difference between the two in the future.
2. Neutral supply and demand calculation shows that supply and demand are still tight
. According to the production capacity of Alashan in May, the alkali plant is under normal maintenance, the import and export volume has entered the average range, the demand for light alkali keeps up with the growth of GDP, and the daily melting volume of float glass has increased slightly. Based on factors such as the increase of global PV installed capacity and the increase of PV glass production by about 50%, the gap between supply and demand from January to September is about 420,000 tons, of which August is the most scarce time. If we want to achieve a balance between supply and demand, we still need to continue to reduce the inventory of raw materials downstream of soda ash.
3. The extreme shortage of supply and demand
is calculated according to the factors such as the one-month delay of production capacity in Alashan, the normal maintenance of alkali plants, the average range of import and export volume, the demand for light alkali following the growth of GDP, the slight increase of daily melting of float glass, the increase of global photovoltaic installed capacity and the increase of photovoltaic glass production by about 50%. From January to September, the gap between supply and demand is about 790000 tons, and soda ash will be extremely scarce.
IV. Loose Supply and Demand Calculation
V. Soda Production Capacity Launch Plan
浙公网安备33010802003254号