Upstream Price Decline Slows, PV Supply Chain Price List This Week (11.15)

2023-11-16 13:28:56

The price trend of batteries is divided.

On November 15, InfoLink, a consultancy, announced the price of photovoltaic supply chain this week . The mainstream price range of silicon materials dropped slightly to 66-73 yuan per kilogram. The ring-to-ring decline continued to narrow, and the price is expected to level off temporarily in the latter half of the year. The price of silicon wafers has approached the profit cost line of production enterprises, and it is expected that the space and extent of subsequent price decline will be very limited. The mainstream price range of

silicon

materials dropped slightly to 66-73 yuan per kilogram, the ring-to-ring decline continued to narrow, and the price in the latter half of the year is expected to be temporarily flat. The market situation of

silicon materials in the current period is similar to that in the previous period, that is, the scale of rigid demand for materials has increased significantly due to the rising level of furnace operation of more enterprises and the bottoming of the inventory level of silicon materials in the previous period. From the perspective of negotiation enthusiasm and the scale of signing orders, there is a continuous trend of warming up.

The supply side maintains the overall incremental trend, but the effective increment of high-quality products of leading enterprises is less than expected. In addition, in terms of inventory, although the overall inventory level has accumulated up to now, the increase is controllable and uneven.

With the effective consumption of silicon wafer inventory, the overall supply and demand is temporarily stable, and even the situation of individual supply shortage is reported. Observing the change of pricing strategy among enterprises, some enterprises maintained a high inventory level due to the previous price insurance strategy, and this week the quotation for M10P silicon wafers also turned to a breakthrough decline to ease the accumulation rate of inventory. At the same time, the rapid collapse of battery prices has also attracted second-and third-tier battery manufacturers to purchase non-a products, and the supply and demand status of silicon wafers of various specifications has continued to change. The average transaction price of silicon wafers has not changed much

this week, but it can be found that the overall transaction price range is narrower than last week, and the purchase price among manufacturers tends to be unified. P-type part, M10, G12 size transaction price falls around 2.4 yuan and 3.4 yuan per piece. In the N-type part, the M10 size is 2.4-2.48 yuan per piece, while the G12 size is divided into battery technology categories, and the corresponding silicon wafer price is differentiated. Overall, the whole wafer price is maintained around 3.45-3.5 yuan per piece.

As the current price of silicon wafers has approached the profit cost line of production enterprises, it is expected that the space and extent of subsequent price decline will be very limited, and the future price trend will largely depend on the rolling changes of industry inventory and production level. In

the P-type part, the transaction price of M10 cells remained at about 0.45 yuan per watt, while the transaction price of G12 cells rose again to about 0.56 yuan per watt due to the mismatch between supply and demand. Price difference to 0.11 yuan per watt, even the current head battery manufacturers are still raising the offer, the new offer to 0.6 yuan per watt, highlighting the price differentiation between sizes. However, because there is no profit space for G12 size external batteries, the dominant power of actual price acceptance is still on the component link.

Overseas, the price of US dollars is partly affected by the exchange rate of manufacturers, and the price of G12 size has increased by nearly 10%.

In the N-type battery part, the price of TOPCon (M10) battery fell to about 0.5-0.51 yuan per watt this week, and the price range was expanded due to the uneven product quality. It is observed that the price difference of N/P-type cells is maintained at about RMB 5-6 cents per watt. However, most of the HJT (G12) cell manufacturers are self-used, and the takeout volume is still small, and the price of the high-efficiency part is about 0.65 yuan per watt.

At present, the impact of the rapid collapse of prices is gradually fermenting, some second-and third-tier manufacturers have almost no profit space in the production of PERC, and the atmosphere of production reduction continues to brew. However, it is difficult for manufacturers to decide to reduce production. Enterprises are worried that the shutdown of production lines will lose some personnel, and that the reduction of start-up rate from the perspective of production and operation will increase manufacturing costs in a disguised way. For non-front-line enterprises, once production is reduced and shut down, they may face the problem of being difficult to resume work. The average price

of

modules continues to drop this week, and the price offered by first-line manufacturers has reached 1.03-1.05 yuan per watt. It is expected that the mainstream price will reach the range of 1-1.05 in December, and there is not much room for modules to fall. The price of 210 modules is temporarily stable this week due to the impact of cell prices. The low-priced part did fall below 1 yuan, and the price of non-inventory dumping increased.

In November, China's export execution price was temporarily stable at about US $0.12-0.135 per watt (FOB), and it is not excluded that the overall price in December will reach US $0.12 per watt. The execution price in the Asia-Pacific region is about USD 0.12-0.13. The average price of local modules in India is about 0.2-0.24 US dollars per watt. The recent spot price in Europe is about 0.11-0.135 euros per watt, and the price is temporarily stable.

N-type prices continue to be affected by PERC shocks, demand conversion and other factors. The price of N-type TOPCon components is about 1.03-1.2 yuan per watt, and the premium between overseas prices and PERC is about 0.5-0.8 cents. The price of HJT modules fluctuates slightly, and the domestic price is about 1.28-1.38 yuan per watt.

In view of the inventory problem, in November, the overall speed of inventory removal was still slow, the average inventory of components in hand was about 2 months, and the domestic inventory still showed signs of increasing. The main factor in the analysis was that the demand did not increase substantially as expected by the manufacturers, and the factors such as the delay of grid connection at home and abroad affected the installation speed, and the shipping time was considered to be 2 months. The above factors, such as continuous online production capacity, affect the slow rate of inventory consumption.

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Correlation

The price trend of batteries is divided.

2023-11-16 13:28:56