贵州水泥市场的今天就是全国水泥市场的明天?

2023-07-23 13:49:18

贵州水泥市场近几年的行情变动可以说是为当下全国水泥市场充当了“斥候”,面对困境,全行业更要树立以行业利益为优先的共识,否则迎来的只有无止境的亏损。

据中国水泥网·水泥大数据研究院不完全统计,在各省公布的水泥熟料企业能耗水平名单中,贵州省水泥熟料企业中能耗优于标杆水平的企业占比48.1%,这一比例为全国最高。

为什么贵州水泥行业在节能降耗方面做到了全国领先水平呢?

“去年贵州全省的水泥产能大约在1.5亿吨左右,但水泥需求只有不到5000万吨,仅仅是个零头。”近日,黔东南一水泥企业负责人与中国水泥网交流时说道。

该黔东南水泥企业负责人认为,贵州省错峰生产天数一再增加,贵州的水泥产能发挥严重受限,加之产销矛盾激烈,提高产量已经不在贵州水泥企业技改的考虑范畴内,

因此节能降耗成为了贵州水泥企业技改的主流,这也是贵州水泥企业能耗水平优秀的原因之一。

据了解,由于水泥需求不振、产能严重过剩,贵州水泥行业错峰生产天数不断加码。

近期,贵州省水泥工业协会发布了《关于延长三季度错峰生产时间的通知》,要求三季度各水泥企业按照精准错峰、刚性停窑55天/条执行。

而此前的一、二季度,贵州水泥企业已经各执行了60天的停窑。

“今年上半年,贵州水泥产量大约在2100万吨,比去年同期下降了200万吨左右。”贵阳一水泥企业表示,贵州水泥市场现状基本上是“产多少、卖多少”,产量比销量不会高太多。

需求不足的情况下,提高产量反而会加大库存压力导致库满停产,企业错峰天数进一步延长。

需求不振、产能过剩,这不仅仅是贵州水泥市场所面临的问题,更是全国范围的普遍现象。

与其他地区价格战硝烟不断的现况不同,贵州水泥行业采取延长错峰、维持价格的方式共同应对难题。

“我们贵州的水泥人常说,‘贵州市场的今天就是全国市场的明天’。”贵阳另一水泥企业负责人表示,当前在长江流域及两广等地出现的价格无序的情况,贵州早在前几年便经历过。

受西部大开发等政策扶持,贵州在前十几年的发展速度异常迅速,各类重大项目不断“登台”,仰赖众多的基建工程,贵州水泥需求持续旺盛,新建生产线不断。

然而到了2020年左右,各类重大项目逐次“落幕”,贵州基本失去了基础设施建设的空间。

新老项目青黄不接,水泥需求一落千丈,前期不断扩张的水泥产能变成了累赘,贵州水泥市场产需矛盾日益突出。

在需求大幅下滑的初期,贵州各水泥企业也曾借助短暂的错峰停窑即时调节供需,来缓解激烈的产需矛盾,但由于产能过剩过于严重,最终无济于事。

于是各水泥企业将精力放在抢夺市场存量上,贵州水泥价格也一度暴跌。经过残酷的市场竞争,贵州水泥企业普遍认识到,无序竞争只会使萎靡的市场雪上加霜,共同维护行业利益才是长久之计,贵州水泥行业由此开启了长期错峰。

即便如此,今年以来的贵州水泥市场形势愈加严峻。进入6月,受频繁降雨天气及中高考等因素影响,各企业出货量进一步下滑,库存也普遍处于高位;

周边湖南、广西等地的低价水泥输入也对贵州当地的水泥价格造成了冲击。“从年初到现在,水泥价格已经累计下跌了差不多80元/吨。”上述黔东南企业负责人表示,贵州也没能免受全国行情急转直下的影响,今年上半年,贵州大部分企业应当都是亏损状态。

多家贵州水泥企业均表示,贵州不是一个封闭的市场,仅仅靠贵州的高度自律不能改善水泥行情下行的大势。

贵州水泥市场近几年的行情变动可以说是为当下全国水泥市场充当了“斥候”,面对困境,全行业更要树立以行业利益为优先的共识,否则迎来的只有无止境的亏损。

多家贵州水泥企业认为,要改善当前水泥行情,错峰生产必须要做到全国范围的联动,至少也应该是关联地区的联动,单打独斗各自为战最终也只能落得“竹篮打水一场空”;

产能过剩严重是造成水泥行业当下困境的主因,去产能迫在眉睫,下行行情下许多规模不大的水泥企业由于亏损严重急于离场,大型水泥集团可以收购这些企业将其强制关停,切实做到产能退出。

谈到即将纳入水泥行业的碳市场,贵州水泥企业普遍不置可否。

“水泥行业即将纳入碳市场,这对优化水泥行业资源、淘汰落后产能等都有积极帮助,但其对改善整个水泥市场环境能起到多大作用我们还是要谨慎乐观。”上述贵阳水泥企业表示,在产能严重过剩的当下,水泥企业的产量必定会受限。既然产能无法完全发挥,大部分水泥企业可能根本不需要去外购碳排放指标,碳交易市场或许并不会像大家想象的那般火热,其具体实施效果还有待观察。

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Correlation

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