李黎:广东市场新常态到来 参与主体都应尊重规则

2022-08-08 10:19:48

广东水泥前些年存在缺口是建立在每年1.7亿吨的消费量的基础上的,而今年势必出现显著下滑,并且将成为常态,供给缺口将不再明显。

作为过去多年来被行业普遍看好的地区,广东水泥市场在今年让人大跌眼镜。需求下滑幅度远超全国、“价格战”率先打响、企业面临普遍亏损等一系列困局接踵而至,从业者对于行业前景愈发悲观。

然而,仅仅在半年前省内多数参与企业对于未来市场还抱有较为乐观的预期,形势翻天覆地的转化仿佛就在一瞬间。

近日,中国水泥网来到广州,与广东水泥协会常务副会长李黎展开交流。双方从从市场供需关系,参与主体的变化以及新增产能等方面进行了探讨。

广东水泥协会常务副会长李黎(资料图)

李黎明确表示,广东水泥市场的新常态已经到来,任何行业企业都应该尊重市场规律。

新常态已来 误解逐步显现

“长期以来,不少外围水泥企业都存在一个误区,总认为广东的水泥需求将长期保持高位,特别是‘粤港澳大湾区’这一概念提出后。”李黎直言,“由此认为广东水泥市场市场供不应求,从而加大对粤的供给力度。”

他认为,广东水泥前些年存在缺口是建立在每年1.7亿吨的消费量的基础上的,而今年势必出现显著下滑,并且将成为常态,供给缺口将不再明显。

根据国家统计局公布的数据,上半年广东降幅达22.06%,而全国降幅则为15%。“下半年大概率会有一定的恢复,但不能寄予过高的期望,过去几年高位的需求难以再现。”李黎着重从今年水泥需求下滑的主因房地产分析。他表示,房地产一直是广东水泥需求的重要组成部分,地产投资高峰时期占水泥总需求超过40%。

“今年这部分需求下滑超过30%,并且从长期看不会明显反弹。”而在广东以重点工程为代表的基础设施建设水泥需求常年占比保持在45%左右,无法弥补房地产下滑带来的水泥缺口。

市场规则需要被尊重 共同应对困局

毫无疑问需求显著下滑是当前广东水泥价格探底的重要因素,但广西大量新增产能释放,以及部分市场参与主体市场策略的调整无疑也是不能忽略的原因。

“目前有部分广西水泥企业为了抢夺更多市场份额,不惜低于成本价进行市场倾销,这是完全不尊重市场规律的行为。长期来看,不仅扰乱了市场秩序,也给自身造成了巨大风险。”李黎表示。

他同时表示,当前的市场环境和装备水平已经不同于以往,龙头企业间的竞争力差异不大,而广东中小企业由于运距等优势,并不一定在与外来水泥的竞争中处于完全的劣势。“特别是四季度旺季后,枯水期的西江运输能力下滑,广西水泥的优势将不如目前明显。”

对于今年以来广西越来越多投产项目,李黎依然保持了一贯的理性,他认为两广一衣带水,广东市场没必要也不可能阻挡广西产能的释放。

但他希望大家在参与市场的竞争中应当把尊重市场规则作为重要考量,抱着营造良好行业氛围的态度出发,避免行业进一步陷入恶性竞争。

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Correlation

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