As the cement production and sales area with the largest east-west span in China, the price of cement in Inner Mongolia ushered in the "first rise" in the Year of the Tiger shortly after the beginning of the year. According to the monitoring of China Cement Network Market Center, from February 14 to 17, some major manufacturers in Hohhot, Wulanchabu and other places in Inner Mongolia began to try to push up the price of cement by 20-30 yuan/ton.
Then, how is the current recovery of cement production and sales in Inner Mongolia, which is the first region to release the signal of cement price increase? How will the cement market trend be interpreted throughout the year? To this end, China Cement Network has conducted a survey on the cement market in Inner Mongolia. & nbsp; & nbsp;
The clinker inventory is running at a low level & nbsp; & nbsp; According to the survey feedback information, most of the cement enterprises in Inner Mongolia are still in the stage of peak staggering and kiln shutdown, and the inventory is low.
"At present, the company's 5000t/d cement production line has not yet started, and the clinker inventory is about 10,000-20,000 tons." The person in charge of production of a cement enterprise in Hohhot disclosed to China Cement Network. A person in charge of a cement enterprise
in Wulanchabu also said: "Now all production lines of the company are in the stage of peak staggering and kiln shutdown, basically in the state of zero inventory, and production is planned to start in early April."
According to the Notice on Strict Implementation of Normalized Off-peak Production of Cement issued by the Department of Industry and Information Technology and the Department of Ecological Environment of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, cement enterprises in the region will implement off-peak production for 4 months from December 1, 2021 to March 31, 2022. Low
inventory and high cost of raw material coal are the main reasons for the rise in cement prices in some parts of Inner Mongolia in mid-February this year, a long-term observer of the cement market in Inner Mongolia pointed out.
According to the author's observation, the opening price of local coal in Inner Mongolia this year is higher than average price of last year, and the ex-factory price of coal is about 800 yuan/ton. The coal price increase has also been confirmed by the person in charge of a cement enterprise in Wulanchabu. It is reported that in addition to the oil cost, the current price of the company's coal is about 1100-1200 yuan. & nbsp; & nbsp;
Slow start of cement demand & nbsp ; & nbsp; Cement prices are the first to pick up, so what is the performance of cement demand in Inner Mongolia? In the survey, a number of cement enterprises in the region reported that the local weather was still in low temperature, which was not suitable for construction, only a small number of mixing stations and construction sites resumed production, and cement was mainly supplied to large-scale railway projects represented by Baoyin high-speed rail. According
to the construction index of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region tracked by China Cement Network, as of March 22, 2022, the construction index of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is 29.5, which is not suitable for construction.
In addition, since February 15, construction in Hohhot and other areas seriously affected by the epidemic has been greatly restricted, and the demand for cement has started slowly. The person in charge of the production of a cement enterprise in Hohhot said that the construction sites and mixing stations had resumed production in the same period in previous years, but this year, affected by the epidemic, only a small number of mixing stations have been started.
In addition to weather and epidemic factors, under the downward pressure of real estate, the demand for cement in Inner Mongolia has also declined since the beginning of the year. The sales director of a cement enterprise in Chifeng said, "There were fewer real estate projects carried over last year, and up to now, the real estate sector has taken a piece of land.". The demand for cement driven by real estate has declined significantly. & nbsp; & nbsp;
Cement demand in Inner Mongolia in 2022: some people are happy and some are worried & nbsp; & nbsp;
In this market survey, when talking about the prediction of the overall situation of the local cement industry in 2022, some enterprises located in Mengxi and Mengdong said that due to the unstable real estate situation, the demand for cement this year is not very optimistic.
"This year's cement demand will be mainly driven by municipal, road and bridge projects." The sales director of the cement enterprise in Chifeng, eastern Inner Mongolia, predicted that due to the downward pressure on real estate, "local cement demand may decrease by 30% this year." An employee of a cement enterprise
located in Bayannur, West Inner Mongolia, pointed out that although projects such as Baoyin high-speed rail have brought about a certain increase in cement demand, due to the obvious decline in real estate demand, it is expected that the local cement demand probability will be the same as that in 2021.
In contrast, the cement enterprises located in Central Mongolia have shown some confidence in the cement market demand this year. A person in charge of a cement enterprise in Wulanchabu said, "In addition to the local market, 30-40% of the company is shipped to Beijing and Hebei. Excluding the impact of the Olympic Games on the project near Beijing, the demand for cement will rebound this year."
In recent years, with the continuous construction and improvement of railway transportation lines, Inner Mongolia cement is directly connected to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei sales market. In June 2021, the special container train loaded with 1472 tons of clinker from Baotou Jidong Company was successfully launched at Baiyun Obo Station; in August of the same year, the special container train carrying dozens of Inner Mongolia Jidong clinker was also successfully launched at Xinchang Railway Park in Hohhot. Inner Mongolia Cement has entered a broader market through "public transit railway" and other means.
In addition, the people who have observed the cement market in Inner Mongolia for a long time also pointed out that there are still opportunities for the cement market in Inner Mongolia in 2022 because of the strong efforts to eliminate and withdraw production capacity and the support of major projects for cement demand.
On the one hand, the environment of the cement industry in Inner Mongolia has been improving. In recent years, with the increasing efforts to eliminate production capacity, the utilization rate of local cement production capacity in Inner Mongolia has increased significantly. & nbsp; & nbsp;
On the other hand, the layout of infrastructure projects is ahead of schedule, and the demand for cement can be expected. On February 9, 2022, the National Economic and Social Development Plan of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region in 2022 was officially released. The Plan proposes to moderately advance the layout of infrastructure construction, speed up the construction progress of Baoyin high-speed rail (including Bayin Branch Line) and Jidayuan high-speed rail, actively promote the preliminary work of Eyuyan high-speed rail and other projects, and strive to achieve a railway construction scale of 1700 kilometers (470 kilometers of high-speed rail).
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