涨70!跌90!涨跌互现背后全国水泥市场尚未启动!

2022-02-20 13:05:44

总体来看,部分地区企业上调水泥价格,但当前市场并未完全启动,需求处在缓慢恢复阶段,价格能否落实到位还有待观察,不过,随着需求开始缓慢启动,市场心态逐步好转,预计下周水泥价格降幅有所收窄。

上调20元!上调50元!上调70元!

春节以来,多地水泥价格上涨,长三角熟料价格迎来二连涨。18日,珠三角地区熟料价格也迎来第二轮上涨。但与此同时,春节长假之后,北方地区多数企业仍在错峰生产阶段,且受低温天气影响,市场尚未启动,工地复工基本在3月以后,南方地区受雨雪天气影响需求暂未恢复,整体来看全国水泥行情依旧偏弱运行。

本周全国熟料价格指数(CLKPI)报收166.25点,环比上涨2.11%。本周熟料价格有所回涨。

图1:水泥价格指数走势(点)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

图2:熟料价格指数走势(点)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

具体而言:

东北地区工地复工相对缓慢,预计3月后才会逐步恢复,价格行情淡季平稳。

西北地区陕西地区多数工地、搅拌站等尚未完全复工,市场需求疲软,库存普遍在4-5成上下,汉中地区一些企业大幅下调水泥价格70-90元/吨,整体市场偏弱运行;甘肃市场需求仍未启动,但省内一些企业实际成交价较前期有所下滑;青海、宁夏错峰仍未结束,整体报价稳定;新疆地区一些企业公布上调水泥价格40-70元/吨不等,但低温天气影响,工地仍在停工,市场处于有价无市状态。

华北地区京津冀地区多数企业仍处于停产阶段,施工项目基本未启动,水泥市场价格基本保持年前水平;山西地区受低温天气影响,市场恢复缓慢,周内水泥价格行情淡季平稳;14-17日内蒙古呼和浩特、乌兰察布等地一些主要厂家开始尝试推动上调水泥价格20-30元/吨,由于需求尚未完全恢复,本次价格推涨实际落实情况仍有待观察。

华东地区春节后江苏雨水天气较多,多数工地、搅拌站等或将延后复工,市场需求偏弱,水泥价格稳中趋弱运行;上海地区一些主要厂家水泥实际成交价格继续回落20-30元/吨,个别企业挂牌价下调幅度较大;浙江地区雨水天气较多,终端需求启动较往年同期有所延后,各厂出货量仅在1-2成上下,短期内水泥价格或以稳定为主。

18日起安徽北部蚌埠、阜阳等地一些主要厂家开始通知上调水泥价格30-40元/吨,其余企业预计稍晚跟进,市场正式拉开涨价帷幕;福建个别企业对局部市场有恢复性上调10-20元/吨的迹象,预计下旬福建地区水泥价格将开启全面上调;元宵节后江西市场需求开始逐步回升,当前工地开工率相对较低,企业发货量在2成左右;周内山东个别企业成交价格小幅下滑10-20元/吨,整体市场报价稳定。

中南地区湖南常德地区部分厂家尝试上调袋装水泥价格20元/吨左右,散装市场尚未启动,价格暂稳,调价执行情况有待观察;湖北省内多数熟料生产线仍在错峰停窑,执行情况尚可,水泥价格较年前基本无明显变动;18日起广东粤北及珠三角地区厂家通知上调熟料价格20-30元/吨,区域企业推涨水泥价格意愿较强,具体看市场需求恢复情况。

18日广西桂林地区部分厂家通知上调水泥价格20-40元/吨,其中高标水泥涨幅20元/吨,玉林市场上调水泥价格20-30元/吨,此次调涨落实待观察;河南各企业水泥报价较年前基本无明显变动,下旬随着需求恢复,价格有望推涨。

西南地区16-17日起四川广安、巴中、广元等地区厂家通知上调水泥价格30-50元/吨,执行情况有待观察;14-17日起重庆地区一些厂家陆续通知上调水泥价格40-50元/吨,执行情况有待观察;云南市场需求还未完全恢复,销量低迷,11-16日昭通、曲靖地区部分厂家下调水泥价格10-30元/吨;贵州地区企业库存普遍较高,整体市场行情偏弱运行。

总体来看,部分地区企业上调水泥价格,但当前市场并未完全启动,需求处在缓慢恢复阶段,价格能否落实到位还有待观察,不过,随着需求开始缓慢启动,市场心态逐步好转,预计下周水泥价格降幅有所收窄。

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Correlation

According to the China Cement Market Data Center News, the price of cement in Sichuan, southwest China, is mixed; Yunnan is stable as a whole. Chongqing area has been pushing up since November, according to the feedback from leading enterprises, the price is relatively stable after the rise, and the enterprises that did not rise in place in the early stage have also increased by 20-30 yuan/ton in the near future.

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According to the data center of China Cement Market, the overall market demand in Northwest China has declined, some kilns have been shut down, and most prices are stable. For example, the cement market demand in Gansu is weak at present, especially in Lanzhou and its surrounding areas, the inventory of some manufacturers is not high.

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Asia Cement said in the third quarter report that looking forward to the fourth quarter, the demand for cement will pick up to a certain extent. With the support of increasing peak staggering efforts, the contradiction between supply and demand of cement will be alleviated in stages. It is expected that the results of the increase in cement prices in the third quarter will be maintained until the end of the year, and the benefits of cement enterprises are expected to usher in marginal improvement.

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According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the price of cement in many places in Yunnan in southwest China has risen by 100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed; Liangshan and Panzhihua in Sichuan have also begun to push up by 50 yuan/ton. In Guizhou, some major manufacturers in Qiannan, Qianxinan, Zunyi, Tongren and other regions have recently raised the cement price by 10-40 yuan/ton, while the quotation in other regions has been stable for the time being.

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Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we believe that the demand for cement will continue to weaken, but under the background of the rising voice of "anti-involution" and the increasing awareness of self-help in the industry, enterprises will intensify their efforts to limit production, cement prices are expected to rise, and industry benefits will continue to be restored. Throughout the year, cement demand will face greater downward pressure, and the industry's profit decline is still large.

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Since October, the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market has been relatively stable and has not risen yet. At present, the 4600t/d production line of the local cement industry has been ignited recently, which is expected to have a certain impact on the eastern Guangdong market in the short term. However, the increase in the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta and Fujian can lay a certain foundation for the increase in the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market.

2024-10-29 09:40:30

After the National Day, the domestic concrete market demand rebounded slightly, but the total amount is still relatively weak, concrete enterprises are mainly shipping at stable prices, and have not yet followed the rise of raw materials. From October 3 to October 9, the national concrete price index closed at 112.82 points, in line with the National Day holiday, with a year-on-year decline of 10.21%.

2024-10-12 17:25:54

The price of raw materials in East China has been pushed up, and the implementation is relatively positive. This week, the price of concrete is mainly stable..

2024-10-12 15:03:04

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Recently, the local weather conditions in China are not good, the recovery of market demand is insufficient, the price of concrete is mainly stable, and the local pressure is falling. From September 12 to September 18, the national concrete price index closed at 112.93 points, down 0.21% annually and 10.83% year-on-year.

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Tianfeng Securities Research Report shows that with the arrival of the peak season in September, the progress of special bonds and special bonds at the infrastructure end has been accelerated and major local projects have been started, and the demand for cement is expected to pick up. Recently, the cement shipment data continued to recover, and the price side also rose synchronously. At present, most cement enterprises are still in a state of loss. With the strengthening of industry supply self-discipline, the superimposed demand is expected to improve marginally, and the industry profit center is expected to be lifted.

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2024-08-23 15:45:37

Domestic construction conditions have not improved significantly, coupled with the small number of new key projects, the market demand is still relatively low, and the price of concrete has fallen more or risen less. From August 8 to August 14, the national concrete price index closed at 114.48 points, down 0.33% annually and 11.69% year-on-year.

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2024-08-16 17:10:08

The domestic market continued to be controlled by the hot and rainy weather, the market demand was weak, the price of concrete continued to fall steadily, and the decline in Sichuan and Chongqing was relatively large. From August 1st to August 7th, the national concrete price index closed at 114.86 points, down 0.43% from the previous month.

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According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the shutdown of kilns in Liaoning, Northeast China, was extended to 20 days in August, the overall price was high and stable, the demand performance was not good, and the momentum to push up again was insufficient.

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According to China Cement Market Data Center, the demand and sales in southwest China are sluggish, cement prices in Sichuan and Chongqing continue to fall, and some regions have fallen back to the level before the price increase in June. Some markets in the surrounding Yunnan-Guizhou region are still pushing up in the week, and the implementation remains to be observed.

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2024-08-02 17:12:52

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Demand is declining, supply is increasing, and the price of sand and gravel industry is adjusted in an all-round way.

2024-07-31 15:56:20

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Northeast region shut down the kiln again for 15 days in August, which played a supporting role in cement prices.

2024-07-26 17:06:09

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the intensity of peak staggering has been increased, and the price of cement in Yunnan-Guizhou region has been raised by 30-100 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed. Cement prices in some markets in Sichuan and Chongqing have dropped by 30-50 yuan/ton.

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From the perspective of various factors, the cement industry was flat in the first half of the year, and in the second half of the year, under the stimulation of the steady growth policy, the physical workload of the project landing was expected to increase.

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Some regions in China are affected by high temperature and rain weather, coupled with insufficient new projects, the price of concrete is weakening. From July 11th to July 17th, the national concrete price index closed at 116.73 points, down 0.47% from the previous month.

2024-07-19 17:35:12

The market demand is not good, and the price of concrete is stable and falling.

2024-07-19 14:44:42

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the cost of cement production has risen, and the price of cement in Dali and Lijiang areas of Yunnan has risen again by 30 yuan/ton. The market demand in Sichuan and Chongqing is weak, and local cement prices have fallen.

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2024-06-26 16:51:15

Cement prices in Gansu and Qinghai were temporarily stable after rising this week, while the actual implementation range in Ningxia was narrowed, according to the cement market data center. The overall performance of Shaanxi market is stable.

2024-06-21 15:30:08

According to the data center of China Cement Network, some areas in central and southern Hebei in North China have once again pushed up the price of cement by 30-50 yuan/ton and the price of clinker by 20 yuan/ton. The overall market demand is insufficient, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-06-14 17:45:01

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, driven by factors such as kiln shutdown and the implementation of the new national standard, the price of cement in Guangxi Province has risen by 30 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed. The Guangdong market is tepid, and the quotation is temporarily stable. After the market of the two lakes rose, the implementation was not good.

2024-06-07 16:54:49

Traditional investment in infrastructure construction is difficult to support strong demand for cement.

2024-05-30 16:02:02

According to the market data of China Cement Net, the price of cement in Guizhou has bottomed out and rebounded. Around the 20th, enterprises in most parts of the province notified the price of cement to be raised by 20-50 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2024-05-24 15:36:32

How is the cement industry in Hubei? Faced with the current situation, what are the views of cement enterprises in the region?

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China Cement Network Market Data Center News, the recent rise in raw material prices, cement production costs, the local market in Guangdong and Guangxi cement prices increased by 15 yuan/ton, the implementation remains to be observed. Prices in the two lakes, Henan and other markets fluctuated little during the week.

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Rainwater in some regions of China is still on the high side, coupled with tight market funds, limited actual demand increment, coupled with weak cost-side support, concrete prices continue to fall. By the end of April, the National Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) had closed at 120.21 points, down 1.77% from the end of March and 13.35% from the same period last year.

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In the first quarter of 2024, the demand for infrastructure fell short of expectations, housing projects continued to shrink, and the concrete industry continued to weaken. By the end of March, the National Concrete Price Index (CONCPI) closed at 122.38 points, down 1.8% from the beginning of the year. Compared with the same period in 2023, the concrete price index fell by 12.8%.

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2024-04-12 16:16:19

Recently, the overall domestic demand has declined steadily, coupled with the weakening of local cost support, and the price of concrete has been stable and small. From November 14 to November 20, the national concrete price index closed at 112.35 points, down 0.13% annually and 10.08% year-on-year.