涨70!跌90!涨跌互现背后全国水泥市场尚未启动!

2022-02-20 13:05:44

总体来看,部分地区企业上调水泥价格,但当前市场并未完全启动,需求处在缓慢恢复阶段,价格能否落实到位还有待观察,不过,随着需求开始缓慢启动,市场心态逐步好转,预计下周水泥价格降幅有所收窄。

上调20元!上调50元!上调70元!

春节以来,多地水泥价格上涨,长三角熟料价格迎来二连涨。18日,珠三角地区熟料价格也迎来第二轮上涨。但与此同时,春节长假之后,北方地区多数企业仍在错峰生产阶段,且受低温天气影响,市场尚未启动,工地复工基本在3月以后,南方地区受雨雪天气影响需求暂未恢复,整体来看全国水泥行情依旧偏弱运行。

本周全国熟料价格指数(CLKPI)报收166.25点,环比上涨2.11%。本周熟料价格有所回涨。

图1:水泥价格指数走势(点)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

图2:熟料价格指数走势(点)

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

具体而言:

东北地区工地复工相对缓慢,预计3月后才会逐步恢复,价格行情淡季平稳。

西北地区陕西地区多数工地、搅拌站等尚未完全复工,市场需求疲软,库存普遍在4-5成上下,汉中地区一些企业大幅下调水泥价格70-90元/吨,整体市场偏弱运行;甘肃市场需求仍未启动,但省内一些企业实际成交价较前期有所下滑;青海、宁夏错峰仍未结束,整体报价稳定;新疆地区一些企业公布上调水泥价格40-70元/吨不等,但低温天气影响,工地仍在停工,市场处于有价无市状态。

华北地区京津冀地区多数企业仍处于停产阶段,施工项目基本未启动,水泥市场价格基本保持年前水平;山西地区受低温天气影响,市场恢复缓慢,周内水泥价格行情淡季平稳;14-17日内蒙古呼和浩特、乌兰察布等地一些主要厂家开始尝试推动上调水泥价格20-30元/吨,由于需求尚未完全恢复,本次价格推涨实际落实情况仍有待观察。

华东地区春节后江苏雨水天气较多,多数工地、搅拌站等或将延后复工,市场需求偏弱,水泥价格稳中趋弱运行;上海地区一些主要厂家水泥实际成交价格继续回落20-30元/吨,个别企业挂牌价下调幅度较大;浙江地区雨水天气较多,终端需求启动较往年同期有所延后,各厂出货量仅在1-2成上下,短期内水泥价格或以稳定为主。

18日起安徽北部蚌埠、阜阳等地一些主要厂家开始通知上调水泥价格30-40元/吨,其余企业预计稍晚跟进,市场正式拉开涨价帷幕;福建个别企业对局部市场有恢复性上调10-20元/吨的迹象,预计下旬福建地区水泥价格将开启全面上调;元宵节后江西市场需求开始逐步回升,当前工地开工率相对较低,企业发货量在2成左右;周内山东个别企业成交价格小幅下滑10-20元/吨,整体市场报价稳定。

中南地区湖南常德地区部分厂家尝试上调袋装水泥价格20元/吨左右,散装市场尚未启动,价格暂稳,调价执行情况有待观察;湖北省内多数熟料生产线仍在错峰停窑,执行情况尚可,水泥价格较年前基本无明显变动;18日起广东粤北及珠三角地区厂家通知上调熟料价格20-30元/吨,区域企业推涨水泥价格意愿较强,具体看市场需求恢复情况。

18日广西桂林地区部分厂家通知上调水泥价格20-40元/吨,其中高标水泥涨幅20元/吨,玉林市场上调水泥价格20-30元/吨,此次调涨落实待观察;河南各企业水泥报价较年前基本无明显变动,下旬随着需求恢复,价格有望推涨。

西南地区16-17日起四川广安、巴中、广元等地区厂家通知上调水泥价格30-50元/吨,执行情况有待观察;14-17日起重庆地区一些厂家陆续通知上调水泥价格40-50元/吨,执行情况有待观察;云南市场需求还未完全恢复,销量低迷,11-16日昭通、曲靖地区部分厂家下调水泥价格10-30元/吨;贵州地区企业库存普遍较高,整体市场行情偏弱运行。

总体来看,部分地区企业上调水泥价格,但当前市场并未完全启动,需求处在缓慢恢复阶段,价格能否落实到位还有待观察,不过,随着需求开始缓慢启动,市场心态逐步好转,预计下周水泥价格降幅有所收窄。

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Correlation

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