内卷还在加剧 广西水泥市场的挑战或许刚刚开始

2022-09-05 10:56:02

目前短暂的“调停”难掩仍在僵持的矛盾局面,广西水泥市场大概率将迎更大的暴风雨,而与其紧密相连的广东水泥市场也不能幸免于难。

8月初,在经历一场激烈的价格竞争后,区内两大龙头水泥企业对首府南宁水泥价格进行恢复调整,这不由得让外界以为广西水泥市场的矛盾开始缓和。  

然而,更多当地业内人士认为目前短暂的“调停”难掩仍在僵持的矛盾局面,广西水泥市场大概率将迎更大的暴风雨,而与其紧密相连的广东水泥市场也不能幸免于难。  

优质的石灰石资源、便利的水路运输,下游广阔的市场空间令广西自产能置换新规出台后仍成为水泥行业的投资热土,以至于被生态环境部点名“十四五”上马“两高”项目冲动依然强烈。  

也正是在这次通报后,水泥建设投资热情才逐步降低,不少项目也因此暂停和取消,但这并不能缓解广西仍在不断激化的市场矛盾。  

需求跌幅近半 新增产能还在释放  

“其实早在去年7、8月就已经感觉到了下游需求快速萎缩,只不过9、10月份的限电导致水泥短时间供不应求掩盖了一系列问题。”  

南宁一水泥行业人士透露,而全区其他企业普遍也认为如果没有彼时的大面积限电,去年三季度广西水泥市场就已经陷入低谷,甚至爆发“价格战”。  

图1:广西P.O42.5散装水泥价格K线图(周)  

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)  

在去年10月用电紧张的情况缓解后,区内一主导企业迅速下调价格,短期跌幅超百元,市场纷争开始出现。  

进入2022年,需求持续不佳的情况并没有改善,反而随着多个重点工程逐步进入尾声进一步走低。  

“从广西的情况看,一般上半年需求表现都比较一般,所以虽然需求不断走低,但大多数企业还能够接受,将希望寄托于下半年。  

然而进入5月前后,需求依然没有起色,进入实质性萎缩,企业的耐心渐渐被消磨,尤其是区内的龙头企业。出厂低至190元/吨的情况也在那时开始出现。”  

上述南宁水泥行业人士表示。  

“从我们统计看,即使是需求表现较好的地区,今年上半年需求下滑也在30%左右,有地区可能下滑超过40%!”  

广西来宾一水泥企业负责人大倒苦水,他表示结合去年四季度的情况,他和同业交流中也预判广西水泥需求会在2022年出现下滑,但幅度预测在30%左右,目前的跌幅超过了所有人的预期。  

图2:广西水泥发运率  

 

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)  

与此同时,区内前些年投建的多个水泥项目陆续投产。  

这些项目投资主体原本不少将主市场定位于西江另一头的粤港澳大湾区,但今年广东同样面临着需求大幅走低,价格不断下探的局面,这让广西不少新建生产线无法按规划向下游销售。  

“供需矛盾将在下半年进一步激化,因为还有相当一部分生产线下半年才正式投产,而这其中有一部分是因为上半年需求不佳而推迟点火导致的。”广西一水泥从业者给出了自己的判断。  

房产建设大幅走低 重点项目还在启动  

为何水泥需求会出现如此大幅度的下滑?房产建设与重点项目启动较慢被认为是最根本的两个因素。  

以南宁房地产为例,南宁混凝土协会会长在近期的一次行业会议上透露,高度依赖地产项目的混凝土搅拌站在上半年遭遇了前所未有的挑战,混凝土销售量下滑超过40%。  

2022年1-6月广西房地产投资额1458.16亿元,较2021年同期相比减少了587.37亿元,同比下降28.7%,其中住宅投资额1124.74亿元,较2021年同期相比减少了438.49亿元,同比下降28%。  

而在广西水泥需求构成中占重要位置的农村自建房也延续了去年的跌势。  

据当地人介绍,前几年由于自建房市场逐步规范,农村建房的热情已经开始出现明显的走低。而随着当前经济形势的变化,农民工由于收入受到影响,自建房的动力大幅放缓。  

被寄予厚望的重点工程在上半年同样表现一般。  

“今年的情况可以说一眼看到头,即年初就已经预料到了。”  

崇左一水泥企业销售人员表示,“可以用青黄不接这个词来形容,老项目基本上已经接近尾声,水泥需求高峰期已过。而新项目虽然不少,但要么还处于前期征地、调研阶段,要么存在资金到位问题,进展缓慢。”  

同时,重点项目由于施工周期长,区域跨度大对于拉动水泥需求的作用从短期看远不及房地产,能否填补房地产投资下滑的缺口存在很大不确定性。  

内卷还在加剧 行业洗牌为时尚早  

供需矛盾伴随着下半年多个生产基地的投产势必进一步加大,企业之间的竞争也将不断升级。  

“虽然8月初价格已经有恢复的迹象,但依然在大多数企业的成本线下,前景不容乐观。一方面龙头企业之间过去的竞合关系几乎破裂,另一方面广西传统主导企业与新投产企业之间的冲突愈加明显。”南宁一水泥经销商透露。  

上半年市场竞争升级已经让不少生产成本较高的企业感到了无法克服的压力,一些企业出现了多条生产线只能开一条的情况,市场份额也在不断被蚕食。  

越来越多企业开始亏损现金流,被迫长期停产或者推迟投产的现象不在少数。  

“从目前来看,广西水泥行业还将长期处于竞争的焦灼期,价格则继续摸底。”崇左一水泥行业人士对中国水泥网表示。  

这对于刚刚投产的企业来说无疑是巨大的压力,而区内一龙头企业近期不断抛出收购意向,让不少人猜测广西水泥行业是否即将迎来大规模洗牌。  

但也有行业人士分析,行业洗牌虽然会出现,但绝对不是短期会发生的。  

“无论是生产线的规模、技术还是布局,新进入广西的企业都有不俗的实力,在与区内原有的企业竞争不见得落于下风。”广西中部地区一水泥销售表示。  

有从业者举例子,虽然目前粉磨站的处境非常艰难,但韧性十足。“粉磨站况且如此,技术装备优良的新熟料企业更不会轻易退出竞争。”  

大多数从业者分析认为,未来广西水泥市场会出现怎样的变化目前还不好判断。严重的产能过剩注定原有的市场竞争秩序不再适用,主导企业对于市场份额给新进入的企业生存空间越来越小,这都将加剧行业内卷。  

此外,两广高度一体化的市场决定了在广西市场陷入困局后,广东水泥行业也难以独善其身。  

在区内难以消化本土产能的情况下,或出现广西水泥企业即使亏本,也毅然选择大举进入广东的情况。而这对于广东当地不少规模较小、竞争力较弱的企业来说,无疑是难以面对的挑战。  


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Correlation

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.

2024-11-08 17:41:17

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2024-11-04 15:06:13

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2024-11-01 17:35:36

Cement prices in central and southern China are generally rising, and concrete prices may rise..

2024-11-01 15:49:36

Recently, the domestic temperature has dropped, local demand has dropped compared with the previous period, and the price of concrete market is mainly in a narrow range. From October 24 to October 30, the national concrete price index closed at 112.12 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.33% year-on-year.

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Since October, the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market has been relatively stable and has not risen yet. At present, the 4600t/d production line of the local cement industry has been ignited recently, which is expected to have a certain impact on the eastern Guangdong market in the short term. However, the increase in the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta and Fujian can lay a certain foundation for the increase in the price of cement in the eastern Guangdong market.

2024-10-29 09:40:30

Recently, the construction in the south is relatively active, the local market demand is warming up, coupled with the increasing pressure on the cost side, the market price trend is stable and small. From October 17 to October 23, the national concrete price index closed at 112.14 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.65% year-on-year.

2024-10-25 17:29:24

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the Pearl River Delta in central and southern Guangdong is planning to continue to push up cement prices by 30-50 yuan/ton around the end of the month, and the Guangxi region is temporarily stable. Cement prices in Hunan and Hubei continued to rise by 30-50 yuan/ton.

2024-10-25 17:23:23

With the improvement of weather conditions, the domestic market demand has improved as a whole in the near future, but it is still difficult to reach the peak season level in previous years. Concrete enterprises mainly ship at stable prices, and there are still some downward adjustments. From October 10 to October 16, the national concrete price index closed at 112.16 points, down 0.59% annually and 10.64% year-on-year.

2024-10-18 17:28:46

Raw material prices continued to rise, and concrete prices in the central and southern markets were mixed..

2024-10-18 17:14:14

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2024-10-12 17:25:54

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in central and southern Guangdong, western Guangdong and the Pearl River Delta region will be raised by 20-30 yuan/ton this week, and cement prices in Guangxi will also be raised. The Hubei region continued to push up 30-50 yuan/ton, the overall market in Hunan was stable and small, and the Yueyang region was notified to rise.

2024-10-12 17:23:19

Raw material prices pushed up, and concrete prices in the central and southern markets were mixed..

2024-10-12 15:45:27

We will carry out energy-saving diagnostic services for key energy-using enterprises, promote green and low-carbon transformation of enterprises in iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, building materials, electric power, petrochemical and chemical industries, promote the orderly upgrading of key energy-using equipment such as boilers, motors, transformers, refrigeration and heating air compressors, heat exchangers and pumps, and promote the application of energy-saving and environmental protection green equipment.

2024-10-12 10:23:33

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2024-09-27 17:57:56

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in the central and southern regions is general, while the Guangxi region is stable and declining. Eastern Hubei and other regions plan to push up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton again. Driven by the price increase in eastern Hubei, individual market prices in Hunan have been notified to rise again.

2024-09-27 16:48:15

Market demand has not improved, and concrete prices in some parts of central and southern China have declined slightly..

2024-09-27 16:04:01

Recently, the local weather conditions in China are not good, the recovery of market demand is insufficient, the price of concrete is mainly stable, and the local pressure is falling. From September 12 to September 18, the national concrete price index closed at 112.93 points, down 0.21% annually and 10.83% year-on-year.

2024-09-20 17:55:34

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in the Pearl River Delta market in central and southern Guangdong are planned to stop falling and rise again, while prices in individual markets in Guangxi have experienced a second round of decline. During the Mid-Autumn Festival, the range of price increases in the two lakes areas has been extended to the whole province, pushing up by about 30 yuan/ton. Since the 10th, some major manufacturers in Henan have pushed up the price of cement by 30 yuan/ton, but the actual implementation is not ideal, some enterprises have not implemented in place, and the quotation remains at the level before the rise.

2024-09-20 17:10:16

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2024-09-20 16:36:23

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2024-09-14 14:43:45

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2024-09-06 17:22:16

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2024-09-06 15:58:01

Recently, some leading enterprises in many places in the Pearl River Delta continue to secretly decline the price of cement by about 10-15 yuan/ton.

2024-09-03 15:35:53

On September 1, some leading enterprises in Guangxi notified many places to reduce the price of cement by about 20-30 yuan/ton.

2024-09-02 15:30:59

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2024-08-30 17:31:27

Market demand in central and southern China is general, and concrete prices are weak..

2024-08-30 16:41:14

Domestic high temperature rain weather has not yet subsided, downstream construction activity is still low, the concrete market is relatively flat, and the market price is stable. From August 15 to August 21, the national concrete price index closed at 114.16 points, down 0.28% annually and 11.40% year-on-year.

2024-08-23 17:35:52

Affected by the price of raw materials, the price of concrete in the central and southern markets is mixed..

2024-08-23 15:33:03

Since the middle of the year, cement transaction prices of some major manufacturers in the Pearl River Delta region have fallen by about 10-15 yuan.

2024-08-21 15:49:45

Domestic construction conditions have not improved significantly, coupled with the small number of new key projects, the market demand is still relatively low, and the price of concrete has fallen more or risen less. From August 8 to August 14, the national concrete price index closed at 114.48 points, down 0.33% annually and 11.69% year-on-year.

2024-08-17 10:46:53

Driven by the rising price of raw materials, the price of concrete in the central and southern markets is stable and small..

2024-08-16 17:03:31

The domestic market continued to be controlled by the hot and rainy weather, the market demand was weak, the price of concrete continued to fall steadily, and the decline in Sichuan and Chongqing was relatively large. From August 1st to August 7th, the national concrete price index closed at 114.86 points, down 0.43% from the previous month.

2024-08-09 18:09:08

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, the market demand in southwest Sichuan and Chongqing continued to be weak, cement prices in some regions fell by 10-20 yuan/ton, and Yunnan-Guizhou region was mixed. The market demand continued to be weak due to the high temperature off-season in Sichuan and Chongqing, and some enterprises in Sichuan lowered the cement price to increase the shipment volume, while the original plan to raise the price in Chengdu was not implemented. The demand for cement in Chongqing is declining and the price is stable. Rainy weather in Yunnan is frequent, market demand is low, and prices in some areas have fallen after pushing up. Cement prices in Guizhou are generally stable.

2024-08-09 17:19:44

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the implementation of the rebound in cement prices in the Pearl River Delta region of central and southern Guangdong is not optimistic, and the Guangxi region is tepid. The market prices of the two lakes are basically stable, and there is a decline in some areas. Leading enterprises in Guangdong try to restore the price of cement, but under the influence of high temperature weather, the actual effect is not good. The rain weather in Guangxi is decreasing, the market demand is limited, the price is stable, and the local market is falling. Cement prices in Hubei are stable, and high temperatures affect demand. The Hunan area continues the high temperature, the demand is weak, the partial price falls. Affected by rainfall, the market demand in Henan is not good, and the price is stable.

2024-08-09 17:12:17

Guangxi and Fujian implement the "monthly settlement and monthly clearance" method for peak-staggering production, that is, at the end of this month, the number of peak-staggering production days for the next month is formulated. In the middle and last ten days of June, there were two rounds of price increases totaling 40 yuan, and in July, there was a pullback of 10-15 yuan yuan. At present, the implementation of peak-staggering production in Guangxi has alleviated the situation of oversupply and played a positive role in stabilizing the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta market.

2024-08-08 13:34:06

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, the price of cement in the Pearl River Delta region of Guangdong in central and southern China has recovered by 10-15 yuan/ton, and the quotation in Guangxi is temporarily stable. Prices in some areas of the two lakes have fallen in the early stage, and the overall market is mainly stable this week.

2024-08-02 17:16:26

High temperature off-season, the price of concrete in the central and southern market is mainly weak and stable..

2024-08-02 16:44:53

On August 1, some major enterprises in Guangdong notified the Pearl River Delta market to raise the price of cement by 10-15 yuan/ton.

2024-08-01 13:52:59

Looking forward to the second half of 2024, we believe that the demand for cement will improve compared with the first half of the year, and the price will continue to rebound. However, under the constraints of weak demand and serious overcapacity, the repair of cement price is limited. Throughout the year, cement demand will face

2024-08-01 09:19:52

Recently, due to the persistent cost pressure in the south, the price of concrete has risen slightly with the raw materials, but the growth of market demand is limited, and the overall quotation is still stable. From October 31 to November 6, the national concrete price index closed at 112.47 points, up 0.31% annually and down 10.11% year-on-year.