需求快速下滑 外来激增 降幅近百元的浙江水泥迎来拐点?

2021-06-28 09:06:17

有悲观的行业人士认为,若销量仍无好转,浙江将是下一个掀起战火的市场。

6月18日,浙中南金华、建德、衢州、丽水及沿海温州、台州、宁波、舟山等多地主要厂家大幅通知下调各品种水泥价格50元/吨。浙江刚刚完成第二轮普降。第三轮下跌已经开启,22日浙北杭嘉湖地区再次下跌30元/吨,6月以来浙江全省累计跌幅接近百元。

这是四年以来浙江二季度淡季下调幅度最大的一年(排除2020年因疫情影响导致的下跌)

作为全国水泥价格风向标的长三角地区,浙江省的水泥行情这几年来一直独领风骚。这一轮的下跌,究竟是季节性因素,抑或是行业拐点已至?

图1:除2020疫情影响外,今年淡季价格下调幅度最大

数据显示,价格大跌是由于近期浙江市场需求快速下滑,企业库存高企所致。据悉,6月初浙江市场渐入梅雨季节,雨水天气明显增多,市场需求走淡。正常来说,进入梅雨季节需求都会走淡,但今年需求下滑的速度较快,水泥大数据研究院数据显示,浙江地区5月中下旬的水泥发运率远低于前几年同期。

浙北地区一家粉磨站表示,“近期需求同比下滑8%左右,主要是钢材一下涨的太多,工地原材料大涨,施工放缓。”另外6月份两台磨机技改投产,新增产能对本处淡季的市场也有一定影响。沿海地区一家水泥企业反应,当前搅拌站竞争激烈,盈利情况较差,也影响到接单情况。除了需求的下滑,水泥熟料库存水平也高于往年。

图2:浙江省2021年5月中下旬水泥发运率远低于前几年同期

图3:水泥库存略高于前几年水平(2020年除外)

图4:熟料库存远高于前几年同期

数据来源:水泥大数据(https://data.ccement.com/)

温州地区某水泥企业销售负责人认为,“近期需求尚可,尽管受到雨水、中高考等因素影响销量有所下降,但属正常季节性下滑,近期的价格调整,或是由于北方南下水泥扰乱了正常市场秩序导致。”

温州是水泥消费大市,年消耗量在2000万吨左右,而当地仅有一个粉磨站,大多数水泥依靠外部流入,除了省内,北方已经成为温州重要的水泥输送地。近几年来,温州几乎每年都会有一个大型中转库投产,竞争逐渐激烈,利润空间大不如前。龙头企业海螺水泥通过旗下的贸易平台起着调节市场的作用。随着4月份北方逐渐开窑,源源不断地进入华东市场,挤占了原先企业的市场份额。降价,是淡季抵御外来水泥的重要动作。

另有水泥行业人士透露,“近两年,前几年因环保等原因关闭的粉磨站如雨后春笋般复苏,并且日子过得很滋润。”这些小粉磨站生产的水泥常常游走于质量标准的临界点上,加上缺斤少两,成本可比正规大企业低很多,抢占了不少民用市场,也拉低了袋装市场价格。

下半年市场走势如何?业内人士表示对今年浙江市场态度仍乐观。旺盛的需求,加上执行力度很强的去产能,是浙江市场能保持稳定高利润的制胜法宝。2014年到2020年,浙江省的熟料产量和产能分别下降了2.43%和21.61%,这两年产能利用率一直保持在100%。考虑到浙江地区还有不少外来的水泥熟料,本地产能供不应求,是支撑浙江水泥行业信心的重要原因。也有悲观的行业人士认为,这一轮下跌已触底,若销量仍无好转,浙江将是今年的河南、贵州后下一个掀起战火的。

图5:6年间浙江熟料产能压缩22%,产能利用率达到100%


已有远虑的企业认为,本轮水泥周期已经从过去的三年经验延长到了五年,今年下半年到明年上半年,或将迎来行业的拐点。如今各地零星燃起的战火,是一个先兆。

All can be viewed after purchase
Correlation

The concrete market in East China has risen slightly.

2025-04-03 16:36:12

Recently, major enterprises in Hangzhou-Jiaxing-Huzhou-Shaoxing in northern Zhejiang and Jinhua and Lishui in central and southern Zhejiang notified that the price of high-standard bulk cement would be raised by about 20 yuan/ton.

2025-04-01 10:13:08

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the cement market in southwest China has changed frequently. Prices in Sichuan and Yunnan have fluctuated and fluctuated recently. Cement prices in Chongqing have been stable after rising.

2025-03-31 15:24:35

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, the price of cement in Guangxi started the second round of 20 yuan/ton increase, and the price in Guangdong was mixed. The price of cement in many places in the two lakes has risen by about 30 yuan/ton.

2025-03-31 15:04:34

According to China Cement Market Data Center, the Yangtze River Delta region in East China is planning to continue to push up cement prices by 20-30 yuan/ton around the end of the month, and the implementation is to be tracked. The implementation in Shandong is not good enough, and some of them have fallen back to the level before the rise.

2025-03-31 14:52:47

According to China Cement Market Data Center News, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was impacted by foreign low-price cement, the price of cement in central and southern Hebei was adjusted back to the level before the rise, and the leading enterprises in northern Hebei were still stable; the market in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia maintained a state of false rise due to weak supply and demand, the actual transaction was low, and the enterprises were on the sidelines.

2025-03-31 14:27:44

Domestic concrete demand improved slightly this week, but the overall concrete price index slowed down due to the mixed rise and fall of raw material prices. From March 24 to March 28, the national concrete price index closed at 100.56 points, up 0.07% annually and 17.83% year-on-year.

2025-03-28 18:04:44

The concrete market in East China is stable and small.

2025-03-28 16:37:08

In the near future, the downstream start-up has gradually increased, coupled with the better shutdown of kilns by enterprises, and the national price has continued to rise.

2025-03-25 09:32:19

Looking forward to the future, with the joint efforts of the government, associations and enterprises, relying on the unswerving belief and the spirit of continuous innovation, the cement industry will break through the haze, successfully achieve transformation and upgrading, stride forward on the broad road of high-quality development with a brand-new attitude, and write its own brilliant chapter.

2025-03-24 17:09:55

According to the information from China Cement Market Data Center, the cement market in North China has shown a trend of regional differentiation. The price in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has stabilized at a high level, and the recovery of downstream demand has promoted the improvement of supply and demand. The recovery in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia is slow due to the weak demand, and the implementation of price adjustment measures by enterprises still needs to be observed.

2025-03-24 15:19:07

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in the Yangtze River Delta region of East China have stabilized after rising as a whole, and cement prices in Fujian are brewing to continue to rise. The implementation in Shandong is not good enough, and some of them have fallen back to the level before the rise.

2025-03-24 14:57:35

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center news, last week, Guangdong Pearl River Delta, Western Guangdong and Hainan and other market notifications rose 20-30 yuan/ton, Guangxi region rose after the temporary stable operation. Last week, cement prices in the two lakes region were temporarily stable, and some regions in eastern Hubei began to notice a rise.

2025-03-24 14:33:03

According to the data center of China Cement Network, the cement market in Northeast China was stable as a whole last week, and the price did not fluctuate significantly.

2025-03-24 14:17:15

Since the 15th, some major manufacturers in Zhejiang have taken the lead in notifying Quzhou market to raise the price of various kinds of cement by about 20 yuan/ton, and the specific implementation remains to be observed.

2025-03-17 16:52:54

According to China Cement Market Data Center, cement prices in some markets in East China, such as Fujian and Zhejiang coastal areas, rose by 20 yuan/ton this week, while the rest of the market stabilized after rising. The price of cement in Shandong has risen sharply by 50 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2025-03-14 17:47:50

Faced with pressure, the cement industry can only go through the cycle and break through the predicament by improving its resilience and strengthening its confidence. In the new year, facing serious overcapacity and complex and changeable market environment, the cement industry needs to continue to adhere to the "anti-involution" and jointly maintain the stable development of the industry.

2025-03-14 09:22:41

Faced with the complex and severe new cycle of the current cement market, how should the cement industry fight against involution and seek breakthroughs in the future? This topic triggered a heated discussion among the participants.

2025-03-13 18:40:31

Some major enterprises in Zhejiang plan to raise the price of various kinds of cement by about 20 yuan/ton in coastal Ningbo, Wenzhou, Taizhou, Zhoushan and other places from the 12th.

2025-03-11 13:07:29

Domestic market demand continued to pick up slowly this week, and upstream raw materials tried to push up, but it was difficult for concrete enterprises to transmit downstream, mostly to wait and see. From March 4 to March 7, the national concrete price index closed at 100.11 points, up 0.01% annually and 18.99% year-on-year.

2025-03-07 18:07:16

Around 5-6 days, some major enterprises in Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Huzhou, Shaoxing and other places in northern Zhejiang have notified to raise the price of various kinds of cement by about 30 yuan/ton.

2025-03-07 14:20:58

Based on the current market situation and past price rules, the next cement price situation deserves close attention and expectation both inside and outside the industry.

2025-03-06 09:54:38

Concrete prices in East China are temporarily stable

2025-02-28 16:36:03

Is it normal for cement prices to fall in a wide range after the beginning of the year? Judging from the law over the years, the price callback at the beginning of spring is the norm of the industry.

2025-02-24 13:19:27

This week, the pace of downstream resumption of work in most regions of China is still relatively slow, coupled with the unstable support of the cost side, the price of concrete has declined steadily. From February 17 to February 21, the national concrete price index closed at 100.27 points, down 1.76% annually and 19.23% year-on-year.

2025-02-21 18:06:59

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: The price of raw materials in some parts of East China has been pushed up, and the power of concrete adjustment is slightly insufficient.

2025-02-21 17:46:36

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center, cement prices in East China, Yangtze River Delta, Shanghai, Southern Jiangsu and other places began to increase by 20 yuan/ton this week, and the rest of the market will follow up. The price of cement in Fujian has risen by 10 yuan/ton, and the implementation remains to be observed.

2025-02-21 17:22:06

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the cement market in southwest China is weak. At present, the market demand in Yunnan has been greatly reduced, most of the clinker production lines have been shut down, and the market activities have entered the off-season.

2025-01-17 17:37:03

Near the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream generally shut down for holidays, the concrete market is basically at a standstill, and the quotation of enterprises is steadily declining. From January 13 to January 17, the national concrete price index closed at 106.63 points, down 1.95% annually and 14.26% year-on-year.

2025-01-17 17:17:59

Recently, the shutdown of construction sites in various parts of the country has increased, the market demand has further declined, and the cost has supported the fatigue, so the price of concrete has weakened. From January 2 to January 8, the national concrete price index closed at 109.20 points, down 1.97% annually and 12.34% year-on-year.

2025-01-10 18:24:51

China Cement Net Market Data Center News: Weak Operation of Commercial Mixed Market in East China

2025-01-10 17:22:35

From the sharp decline in production to the fierce competition in the market, from the imbalance between supply and demand to the continuous shrinkage of benefits, every event has a profound impact on the future direction of the industry. Let's use these key words to review the cement industry in 2024. They not only record the hard journey of the industry, but also indicate the dawn of future development.

2024-12-31 09:15:34

Near the end of the year, the domestic concrete market demand continued to weaken, the cost support declined compared with the previous period, and the price of concrete in many places declined steadily. From December 19 to December 25, the national concrete price index closed at 111.39 points, down 0.80% annually and 10.97% year-on-year.

2024-12-27 17:40:19

China Cement Network Market Data Center News: Demand superimposed raw material prices decline, concrete prices in East China weakened.

2024-12-27 17:29:49

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the price of cement in Northwest China is stable as a whole. Prices in Shaanxi have remained stable in the near future.

2024-12-27 17:23:41

Off-season construction conditions are gradually weakening, concrete market demand is weak, and enterprise quotations are mainly stable, with a slight decline in some areas. From December 12 to December 18, the national concrete price index closed at 112.29 points, down 0.03% annually and 10.35% year-on-year.

2024-12-22 20:17:53

According to the China Cement Network Market Data Center, prices in the Pearl River Delta and western Guangdong markets in central and southern China have loosened and declined, while prices in Guangxi remain stable. Cement prices in many places in Hunan have risen again, and prices in Hubei are mainly stable.

2024-12-20 17:55:11

According to China Cement Net Market Data Center, the price notice in central and southern Zhejiang and coastal markets in East China was raised by 10-20 yuan/ton this week, and the implementation remains to be observed, while the rest of the market is running steadily and weakly as a whole.

2024-12-20 17:53:03

According to the China Cement Market Data Center, the cement market in North China, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei is weak, pushing up the implementation of fatigue; the cement market in Shanxi is weak, and Inner Mongolia maintains stable operation.

2024-12-20 17:51:19

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the price of cement in Northwest China is stable as a whole. Prices in Shaanxi have remained stable in the near future.

2024-12-20 17:49:52

Raw material prices continue to decline, and the concrete market in East China is weak..

2024-12-20 17:19:48

Since the 18th, some leading enterprises in Zhejiang have notified many places to raise the cement price by 20 yuan/ton.

2024-12-18 13:04:33

According to the data center of China Cement Market, the price of cement in the Yangtze River Delta in East China has declined, and the price in Fujian has continued to rise. Cement prices in Jiangxi have not changed significantly this week, temporarily stable operation, and terminal demand in some areas has weakened slightly. In recent days, the weather in Shandong is mostly fine, but the temperature is low, the construction site projects are reduced, and the market demand is not ideal.

2024-12-06 17:41:49

Recently, the overall domestic demand has declined steadily, coupled with the weakening of local cost support, and the price of concrete has been stable and small. From November 14 to November 20, the national concrete price index closed at 112.35 points, down 0.13% annually and 10.08% year-on-year.

2024-11-22 18:03:03

According to China Cement Network Market Data Center news, Fujian cement prices in East China once again pushed up, while the rest of the region was mainly stable in the week. This week, the Yangtze River Delta region is dominated by rainy weather, and the overall market demand is relatively stable, but some leading enterprises in the region still insist on selling at high prices, resulting in sales hovering at a low level.

2024-11-15 17:43:44

Recently, the concrete market demand has weakened, coupled with the cost-side support has not been further strengthened, enterprises are mainly shipping at stable prices, with a slight increase in individual regions. From November 7 to November 13, the national concrete price index closed at 112.50 points, up 0.03% annually and down 10.07% year-on-year.

2024-11-15 17:37:41

In October, with the gradual decline of the national temperature, the northern project came to an end, and there was a small-scale rush to work in some areas, while the southern construction activities increased, the demand warmed up, and the shipment volume increased slightly. On the supply side, a number of sand and gravel aggregate projects have been successfully put into operation, production capacity has been released rapidly, sand and gravel prices have stopped falling slightly, and have entered a narrow range of volatility.

2024-11-05 11:42:36

Recently, the domestic temperature has dropped, local demand has dropped compared with the previous period, and the price of concrete market is mainly in a narrow range. From October 24 to October 30, the national concrete price index closed at 112.12 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.33% year-on-year.

2024-11-01 01:06:33

Recently, the construction in the south is relatively active, the local market demand is warming up, coupled with the increasing pressure on the cost side, the market price trend is stable and small. From October 17 to October 23, the national concrete price index closed at 112.14 points, down 0.02% annually and 10.65% year-on-year.

2024-10-25 17:29:24

According to the data center of China Cement Market, cement prices in many places in East China continue to rise, and prices in some areas show signs of falling, and the specific situation needs to be tracked. For example, cement prices in Jiangxi are basically stable this week. Since the 8th, all parts of Jiangxi have been notified to push up the cement price by 20-30 yuan/ton. At present, the market is generally in a stable state after the price increase, and the price has not fluctuated significantly.

2024-10-18 17:33:36