持续上调五轮 创历史记录 江西水泥市场未来将如何演绎?

2021-09-26 14:55:57

在价格高涨的形势下,江西水泥市场未来将如何演绎?“中国水泥网、水泥大数据研究院江西市场调研团队”实地考察赣东北、赣北、赣南等多地寻找答案。

自6月以来,江西水泥价格持续下滑,跌幅超百元。然而,在七月底江西地区水泥价格迎来回暖。截至目前,已持续上调五轮,且涨幅较大。9月18日江西全省水泥价格上调80元/吨,9月23起,再次喊涨100元/吨。  

图1:江西P.O42.5散装水泥价格K线图(2018.9.24—2021-9.24)  

据市场消息,此次价格回涨或将成为江西市场逐步走出三季度低迷市场后迎来的最大涨幅,全省水泥价格达到近年来的最高水平。在价格高涨的形势下,江西水泥市场未来将如何演绎?“中国水泥网、水泥大数据研究院江西市场调研团队”实地考察赣东北、赣北、赣南等多地寻找答案。  

上半年行情偏弱运行  

江西位于沿长江经济带和沿京九经济带的交汇点,同武汉城市圈、长株潭城市群、皖江城市带共同构成我国中部地区经济增长极。  

长期以来,由于区域位置的特殊性,江西水泥市场一直与周边的福建、浙江、广东、湖南、湖北地区保持着互通有无的发展态势,对区域内及周边地区的市场价格稳定发挥着重要作用。  

8月份是水泥行业传统淡旺季转换过渡月份,水泥企业通常会进入调价窗口。然而,今年8月江西主要水泥企业在逐步进入调价通道后,效果却不抵预期。  

“今年8月,赣东北的水泥需求明显不如去年同期。在去年8月,水泥已开始限量销售,然而,今年截至目前,水泥库位已经超过50%,并且还在上升。”赣东北一水泥企业销售负责人在与9月中旬中国水泥网、水泥大数据研究院江西市场调研团队的交流中透露。  

另一赣北大型水泥集团销售负责人同样反映,“8月销量下滑尤其明显,我们厂销量下降了30%左右,其他几个主流企业也有类似跌幅。去年8月销售限量的情况今年不再。”  

对于8月水泥需求不振的情况,多方给出了较为类似的观点。首先是今年重点工程资金面较差,这严重影响了新项目的开工和在建项目的进度;其次则是随着房地产行业调控的逐步加码和收紧,不少房产项目施工进度大幅放缓甚至停工,这两点成为拖累今年以来整个江西市场的主要原因。  

赣南水泥价格被“超车”  

长久以来,以赣州为代表的赣南市场水泥价格都高于赣北市场,但近年南北两地的几个主要市场水泥价格却出现了交替领先的迹象。  

调研团队在与多名业内人士的交流中发现,之所以两地价格出现翻转迹象,既有赣北自身价格好转的原因,例如长三角强劲的需求拉动了赣北地区的水泥价格,也有以赣州为代表的赣南市场自身因素。  

“以往,靠近广东地区的赣州水泥企业会根据两地价差销往广东北部。但近年这些企业反映广东市场越来越难涉足,塔牌水泥文福万吨线二线在去年投产,给市场再添压力。”赣州水泥行业一位领导对调研团队表示。  

除此之外,赣南区域内本土水泥需求欠佳走低是内因,尤其是农村建设方面的水泥用量出现了“断崖式”下滑。  

上述负责人透露,2015年至2017年期间,在有关政策支持下,农村自建房迎来建设高潮,乡村公路为代表的农村基础设施进一步完善,水泥需求得以大幅度提升,农村需求一度达到总需求四成以上。近年,农村建设方面需求释放完毕。  

加之,重点工程方面的水泥需求比例降至两成。以赣深高铁、大广高速复线等为代表的重点工程项目逐步竣工,房地产项目施工也出现放缓的情况,赣南区域水泥需求由此出现波动。  

供给稳定 江西地区需求可期  

在调研过程中,受访者对江西省2021年四季度的行情走势表现出一定的信心。  

从供应端来看,“赣州地区熟料产能在1500万吨左右,水泥产量在1900万吨,需求在2000万吨左右,熟料产能已经有七八年没有变化,近年来,小型粉磨站退出的产能与大型企业技改升级扩大的产能基本可以抵消。”上述赣州水泥行业领导对调研团队表示。  

据中国水泥网·水泥大数据研究院统计数据,江西省2020年熟料产能为6864.95万吨,相较于2016年,仅增长6%,整体产能比较稳定,这为市场需求波动时期,价格依然能保持稳定奠定了基础。  

图2:近年来江西新增熟料产能整体较少  

数据来源:水泥大数据研究院  

从需求端来看,“上半年施工进度放缓,在一定程度上影响了水泥需求,但预计四季度项目进程恢复,水泥需求将显著回升。”赣南地区一水泥企业负责人对四季度行情表现出憧憬。  

与此同时,在新时代推动中部地区高质量发展、苏区振兴等系列政策的引领下,江西省水泥需求将迎来更多的增长点。  

据江西省发展改革委,江西2021年度省重大项目清单中,省重点建设项目共计461项,预计建成投产项目77项,续建项目201项,计划新开工项目169项,预备项目14项,总投资15397亿元,年度计划投资3371亿元,较去年同期增长812亿元。  

资料显示,江西省新建续建项目包括昌九客专、瑞梅铁路江西段、遂川至大余高速公路新建工程、昌樟高速公路改扩建二期工程、昌景黄铁路江西段、宜春至遂川高速公路等等,上述项目建设将为江西地区水泥需求带来有力支撑。  

外围水泥影响加大  

随着资金落实到位,重点项目加速推进,未来需求的稳定支撑,上述市场负责人对区域内水泥行情持乐观态度。然而,由于江西优越的区位,便利的交通,近年来,外来水泥的影响加剧,周边新建生产线的产能释放亦为区域市场带来“隐忧”。  

近年,福建、贵州等地区的水泥熟料持续扰动江西市场,在赣东北、赣南地区尤为明显。  

据悉,福建地区的水泥运至江西上饶,到位价仍低于本土企业。更有甚者,贵州低价熟料不惜跨越千里来赣东北市场分一杯“羹”,叠加了200元运输成本的贵州熟料,到位价仍能低于本土熟料价格。  

在赣州的石城县,除了万年青水泥自身的搅拌站,其余搅拌站市场份额大多由福建地区水泥占领,甚至福建地区水泥长驱直入,逐渐“染指”赣州中心城区的搅拌站。在外来水泥熟料的多方搅动下,江西区域内的水泥市场竞争或将加剧。  

除了外来水泥对当地市场的冲击,区域内及周边生产线建设投产为江西水泥市场带来新的“隐忧”。位于上饶的江西玉山的一条熟料生产线预计在年底如期实现点火;海螺水泥计划在靠近江西的福建三明建设2条日产5000吨水泥熟料生产线项目。对此,上述企业市场负责人表现出些许担忧,他表示,近年来,福建水泥对江西水泥市场的影响不断加大,新线投产或将加剧竞争格局。  

此外,广东地区新增产能逐步释放,塔牌水泥两条万吨熟料生产线陆续投产,不仅增强了粤东地区的掌控力,也一定程度上辐射到赣州市场,从而导致该地区水泥的外销压力变大,当地价格稳定性亦受到影响。

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Correlation

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