Recently, the epidemic in Southeast Asian countries counterattack, Malaysia's diagnosis rate exceeds India, Thailand's death toll has reached a new high, even Vietnam, which has a better epidemic prevention and control, has begun to break out, the situation is more grim. Repeated epidemics in Southeast Asian countries have a https://price.ccement.com/Price_list-1-s0-e0-p0-c0-k100059-b0.
supply gap in China. Increase in clinker imports:
China's clinker imports have been increasing in recent years, and the surge in imports is mainly due to the following reasons: 1. In recent years, the tightening of national environmental protection policies, combined with the supply-side reform of the cement industry, and the reduction of clinker production capacity by off-peak production have alleviated the domestic overcapacity crisis, but at the same time, it has also led to a supply gap. Based on production and sales, it is a typical short-legged product, lacking inventory attributes, while the demand is rigid. In the peak season, the downstream demand for cement is strong and the industry's peak-staggering production produces a certain mismatch between supply and demand. Imported clinker can alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand to a certain extent; 2. The import price of clinker is lower than that of domestic clinker for a long time, and the import of clinker is profitable. In addition, Southeast Asian countries have excess capacity, so they need to find a market outside; 3. East China and South China markets are close to consumption terminals, with a large number of independent grinding stations, close to the coast and convenient shipping, which creates social and natural conditions for imports. Some coastal manufacturers import more than 40% of clinker;
Figure 1 and 2: China's clinker output, Imports (10,000 tons)
Data 
source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.) Figure
3: Data source
of water clinker imports (10,000 tons) by provinces and cities from January to April in 2021 Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.
Figure 4: Price difference between domestic and foreign clinker in April 2018-2021 (yuan/ton)
Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement. in the second half of the year, In the context of repeated COVID-19 epidemics and uncertainties in the global economic recovery, loose monetary policy is expected to remain, sea freight rates are facing upward pressure, and the price of imported clinker is expected to rise.
Figure 5: Baltic Freight Index
in April 2019-2021 Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.
) Table 1: Source Market of China's Imported Clinker in April 2020-2021 (10,000 tons,
Data source: Cement big data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Supply side: In recent years, Vietnam's cement production has maintained steady growth, and in 2020, the output will be 100 million tons. 3.
Figures 6 and 7: Vietnam's cement production (10,000 tons) and capacity utilization rate (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.2020 The total sales volume of Vietnam's cement reached 100 million tons, of which 62 million tons were domestic demand and 38 million tons were exported. Exports grew by 12%, exports kept growing year after year, and domestic demand declined slightly. From 2018 to 2020, the proportion of domestic demand was 67.1% and 65% respectively.
Figure 8 and 9: Vietnam's clinker export volume (10,000 tons), Consumption structure (10,000 tons)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.com/)
Demand side: Vietnam's economic development level is relatively backward, and the real GDP growth rate in recent years has maintained above 5%, leading the growth rate in Southeast Asian countries. The momentum of economic development is rapid. Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the growth rate has slowed down, recording 3. The author believes that in the short term, the current COVID-19 epidemic situation is rising again, which is expected to have a certain impact on Vietnam's economy in the short term, and the pressure on clinker exports will increase; In the medium and long term, epidemic control is only a matter of time, Vietnam's investment demand space is still large, cement demand has a solid foundation and guarantee, Vietnam's economy is expected to continue to grow at a high speed in the future, which will help ease the pressure of clinker export.
Figure 10: Real GDP growth rate of Southeast Asian countries (%)
Data source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement.
Meanwhile, there are certain performance differences in the quality of domestic and foreign clinker, and the overall quality of imported clinker is lower than that of domestic clinker. In addition, when the imported clinker enters the wharf by sea, a large amount of dust will be produced in the loading and unloading process, causing serious pollution. Under the background of upgrading the environmental protection policy, the large-scale entry of imported clinker into the East China market will be restricted to a certain extent, which has a natural protection for the East China market.
Figure 11: Cement in East China from 2014 to 2020 Clinker production and ratio (10,000 tons)
Data source: Cement Big Data (
Figure 12: 2011-2020 Conch Cement Clinker and Cement Production Capacity (100 million tons)
Data Source: Cement Big Data (https://data.ccement. In the medium and long term , With the signing of the RCEP agreement, the removal of trade tariff barriers among member countries will be the future trend, which will also stimulate the export of clinker to a certain extent. The fundamentals of China's economic stability and improvement will remain unchanged for a long time, which will provide strong support for the internationalization of the RMB and the appreciation of the exchange rate, and the economic benefits of importing clinker by enterprises along the southeast coast will become more apparent. The sustained recovery and development of overseas economy will absorb part of the export pressure, and the domestic leading enterprises will actively respond to it. The impact of clinker import on the East China market is controllable as a whole, and there is no need to worry too much. It is expected that in the medium and long term, the number of imported clinker will continue to increase, and the growth rate will slow down to a certain extent.
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