The consequences of crazy money printing are coming! Inflation in the US hit a 13-year high and global commodity prices continued to rise.

2021-05-13 16:25:08

The first quarter monetary policy implementation report issued by the People's Bank of China on May 11 said that the rise in global commodity prices may push up China's PPI in stages, but the risk of imported inflation is generally controllable, and stressed that "we should cherish the normal monetary policy space.".

On the evening of the 12th

Beijing time, the United States released the April CPI, which is an important indicator of inflation and a data of great concern to global investors.    As soon as the

data came out, the world was in an uproar, and the direct consequence of "helicopter money" was that the US CPI data exploded! How high is

the CPI?

Both the overall CPI and the core CPI exceeded market expectations: the overall CPI increased by 4.2% year-on-year, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis; the core CPI increased by 3% year-on-year, the largest increase since January 1996.

Although Fed officials have repeatedly stressed that any rebound in inflation this year is "temporary", regardless of whether the inflation is temporary or not, the root cause of this result is excessive currency issuance, which is an intuitive reflection of the consequences of the big release of water.

"Inflation is the biggest enemy of the bull market", and the data that far exceeded expectations increased investors'worries about inflation in the United States, and the stock market in the United States accelerated its decline.

As of the close, the Dow fell 681.50 points, or 1.99%, to the 33587 of.66; the Nasdaq fell 357.75 points, or 2.67%, to the 13031 of.68; The S & P 500 index fell 89.06 points, or 2.14%, to 4063.04. & nbsp; & nbsp

; & nbsp; & nbsp; How to deal with such strong inflation expectations at home?

April CPI data to add fuel to the fire of inflation pressure in the United States, although the biggest contribution of the CPI growth comes from the rising prices of used cars and trucks, because automobile production is affected by the global shortage of semiconductors, which promotes the demand for used cars, but the growth rate of a new high in 12 years is still beyond market expectations, which is reflected in the stock market. The three-day decline in U.S. stocks has shown investors' panic. Li Xunlei,

an economist, commented: If you issue too much money, you always have to pay it back.

Now the market is worried that by the end of next year, the possibility of the Fed raising interest rates will be very high. The rise in

domestic commodity prices has drawn the attention of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.

At the executive meeting of the State Council held on May 12, the meeting requested that we should follow up and analyze the domestic and international situation and market changes, do a good job in market regulation, and deal with the excessive rise of commodity prices and its associated effects. We should strengthen the coordination of monetary policy and other policies to maintain the smooth operation of the economy.    The first quarter monetary policy implementation report issued by the People's Bank of China

on May 11 said that the rise in global commodity prices may push up China's PPI in stages, but the risk of imported inflation is generally controllable, and stressed that "we should cherish the normal monetary policy space.".

China is a major importer of bulk commodities. From the perspective of import volume and import dependence, PPI is mainly affected by crude oil, iron ore and copper, among which the downstream industrial chain of crude oil is relatively long, which will also affect the prices of chemical products, and has the greatest impact on PPI. & nbsp; & nbsp;

The Federal Reserve is optimistic about the outlook for inflation & nbsp; & nbsp; Global inflation is already on the way, boosted by the continued rise in commodity prices. In the US, where everything from lumber to house prices is soaring, the

Federal Reserve has been much calmer, trying to douse the fire of panic in recent months with a "this is temporary" view. On Tuesday

, several Fed officials continued to argue that it was too early to talk about tapering. After the release of the

data, the US money market believes that the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points by December 2022 is 100%, compared with 88% before the release of the US CPI data. & nbsp; & nbsp;

Against this backdrop, the Federal Reserve is urgently putting out the fire. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Clarida admitted that he was surprised by the CPI explosion in April, but the upward inflation was largely a temporary phenomenon, mainly related to the base effect of last year's economic shutdown and supply chain bottlenecks pushing up prices. Yang Shuiqing, an assistant researcher at the Institute of American Studies of

the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said, "When the Federal Reserve said it was not worried about inflation, it actually gave the market a shot in the arm and calmed the mood.". As far as commodities are concerned, whether futures or spot, the price rise is obvious.

But for the Biden administration, the rising inflation data is really disturbing. & nbsp; & nbsp;

This gives the Republicans leverage to oppose their infrastructure and social security spending plans. "There's too much money in the economy, and demand is high and outpacing supply, and it's starting to push up prices," Republican senators said ahead of the day's CPI release. "We need to be a little more cautious and a little more restrained." The Biden administration's subsequent economic stimulus may add another variable.

US CPI data exceeded expectations, which may further boost the wave of inflation trading, pushing up break-even inflation and nominal US bond yields, and depressing technology stocks. & nbsp; & nbsp;

Large tech stocks have led the market lower for the third day in a row. Yesterday, Facebook closed down 1.3% in the U.S. stock market, losing $300 at one point, the lowest since April 23; Amazon, Apple fell more than 2%, Microsoft fell nearly 3%, all the lowest since March 31, of which Apple fell 2.49%, the market value evaporated $52.4 billion, about 337.4 billion yuan.

Tesla fell 4.4%, wiping out $26.3 billion in market value, or about 169.2 billion yuan. Tesla has fallen for three consecutive days to its lowest level since March 8 and the first time in two months that it has closed below $600.

Alibaba fell 0.77%; Baidu fell 3.46%; Jingdong fell 2.45%; Netease fell 1.84%; and Pinduoduo rose 0.08%.

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The first quarter monetary policy implementation report issued by the People's Bank of China on May 11 said that the rise in global commodity prices may push up China's PPI in stages, but the risk of imported inflation is generally controllable, and stressed that "we should cherish the normal monetary policy space.".

2021-05-13 16:25:08